Politics: What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020 - PressFrom - US
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PoliticsWhat happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020

07:21  12 september  2019
07:21  12 september  2019 Source:   washingtonpost.com

North Carolina court strikes down state legislative map

North Carolina court strikes down state legislative map A North Carolina court on Tuesday struck down the state's current legislative districts for violating the rights of Democratic voters, forcing districts to be withdrawn ahead of the 2020 election.The three judge panel's opinion says that North Carolina's General Assembly "had a partisan intent to create legislative districts that perpetuated a Republican-controlled" assembly when drawing maps in 2017.The redistricting saw the "collective voting strength" of Democrats diluted, resulting in a map that greatly favored Republican candidates.

What trends, what surges or retreats happened there that might tell us what will happen in 14 months in rural Michigan? What will this little flap of a butterfly’s North Carolina ’s 9th District covers all of five counties in the state and part of three others. While Mecklenburg County is the smallest part of the

victory in North Carolina came thanks to Mr. Trump, who told aides he wasn’t getting recognition he felt difficult for Democrats to retake the Senate in 2020 unless they can improve their performance If that happens , there could be a repeat in some states of what took place Tuesday in and around

Barring some dramatic development, North Carolina state Sen. Dan Bishop (R) will head to Washington shortly to represent the state’s 9th District in Congress. The caveat at the front end of that sentence is an important one: The last election in that district was thrown out after apparent absentee ballot fraud tainted the results. This one seems likely to stick, however, giving Bishop a 2.1-point victory over Democrat Dan McCready.

What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020© Nell Redmond/AP North Carolina Republican congressional candidate Dan Bishop celebrates his victory in Monroe, N.C., Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019 with his son Jack, left, and wife Jo. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)

There is a tendency to seize upon special elections like this one the way an ancient augur would goat entrails. What might we divine from what happened in North Carolina about, say, the 2020 presidential race? What trends, what surges or retreats happened there that might tell us what will happen in 14 months in rural Michigan? What will this little flap of a butterfly’s wings yield?

Trump takes victory lap after Republicans win in North Carolina

Trump takes victory lap after Republicans win in North Carolina President Trump took a victory lap Tuesday night after a pair of Republican victories in North Carolina, including a highly competitive 9th Congressional District race that saw Dan Bishop edge out a critical win in what was seen as a bellwether for the GOP. 

Tuesday's vote in North Carolina won't tell us anything about the national mood. But it will affect the 2020 campaigns. High-profile events have disproportionate effects on what party actors think about how voters respond in general, and that can contribute to changes in the party’s positions and priorities.

Chat with us in Facebook Messenger. What happened to those ballots is unclear, though affidavits suggest that a number of ballots were given to McCrae. What is clear though is that what happened in North Carolina has no real connections to what has previously been said by Trump about "voter

Let us dig in.

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North Carolina’s 9th District covers all of five counties in the state and part of three others. While Mecklenburg County is the smallest part of the district in terms of land area, it’s the county in the district where the most voters live.

The part of Mecklenburg that the 9th District covers is heavily suburbs of Charlotte, and it went for McCready by 12 points on Tuesday. The next most populous county is Union, just to the southeast. It went for Bishop by 21 points. (N.B.: All election results for 2019 are preliminary.)

Bishop won four counties, with his 2.1-point victory dependent heavily on those results from Union County. Outside of Union County, Bishop lost the race by 6.6 points.

Republicans shouldn't get too excited about North Carolina

Republicans shouldn't get too excited about North Carolina President Trump took a victory lap on Twitter last night, crediting himself with Dan Bishop's win in North Carolina's 9th congressional district, and bragging that Bishop would have lost without him. TweetBut Bishop merely retained a congressional seat drawn by Republicans for Republicans. This close shave should serve as a serious warning to conservatives that 2020, up and down the ticket, will be a blood bath if things keep going like this. Southern suburbs are showing an increasing impatience with Trump's Republican Party, such that the GOP cannot bank on winning in states like North Carolina and Georgia.

What will the North Carolina special election tell us about 2020 ? The 9th District, which spans from Charlotte and its southeastern suburbs along the state ’s southern border toward Fayetteville and Elizabethtown, offers another example of the gerrymander rot that Democrats took such advantage of

A congressional race in North Carolina that seemed to be settled on election night was reopened last week amid allegations of absentee ballot fraud. The Republican candidate, Mark Harris, has a 905-vote lead over the Democrat, Dan McCready. Here’s what we know, and what we don’t know.

What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020
What happened in North Carolina — and what, if anything, it tells us about 2020

Unfortunately for McCready, Union County exists. And, in fact, it went slightly more heavily for the Republican this time around than it did in the thrown-out 2018 general. That shift though was minor — particularly compared to several other shifts in the Republicans’ direction.

Those three counties — Cumberland, Richmond and Robeson — shifted to the GOP’s advantage by five, seven and 14 points respectively. Richmond and Cumberland flipped from blue to red, while Robeson went from dark blue to light blue. In 2018, McCready (also the Democratic nominee at that point) won it by 15 points. On Tuesday, he won it by one.

N Carolina special election tests Trump, 2020 GOP prospects

N Carolina special election tests Trump, 2020 GOP prospects Republicans are hoping an eleventh-hour pep talk from President Donald Trump will help them win Tuesday's special congressional election in North Carolina. The race could shed light on Republicans' chances of retaking the U.S. House and Trump's reelection prospects in 2020. At a rally in Fayetteville on Monday night, Trump campaigned for conservative state Sen. Dan Bishop. Opposing Bishop is moderate Democrat Dan McCready, a former Marine who narrowly trailed in an election for the seat last year that was invalidated after evidence of election fraud surfaced.

Among southern states , North Carolina would have seemed to be the least likely to find itself a flashpoint Apple is a major investor in North Carolina , operating a billion iCloud data center and solar When I contacted McCrory’s press office this week, a spokesman told me the governor was

Here's what we know about what happened in North Carolina — and what may come next. Gerry Cohen, former special counsel for the state assembly who helped craft some election laws, told the Observer that there had been rematches after questions were raised about an election — but never at

Combined, those three counties made up about a quarter of the total vote that was cast.

So why those shifts? One theory is that turnout increased in rural areas, perhaps as a function of President Trump’s last-minute stop in the area on Monday night. Trump held a rally in Fayetteville, in Cumberland County.

But that doesn’t map neatly with the results. Census Bureau data on the density of the rural population in each county show that the county where McCready did best, Anson County, is more than three-quarters rural. Anson County is also nearly half black, however. Bladen County, the most rural of the eight counties in the 9th District, is only a third black, and there Bishop won by 19 points.

More heavily rural counties did shift more Republican on Tuesday relative to 2018 — but there’s not a strong correlation between how rural a county was and how big the shift was.

Most of the seats the Democrats picked up last year were suburban. New Jersey’s 3rd District, which flipped to the Democrats in 2018, has about the same mix of rural, urban and suburban populations as determined by CityLab’s Congressional Density Index, and a relatively similar demographic profile.

Trump says he won't debate primary opponents

Trump says he won't debate primary opponents President Trump on Monday indicated he would not be willing to debate the Republicans seeking to run against him in a primary for the party's 2020 nomination. © Getty Trump says he won't debate primary opponents "They're all at less than 1 percent. I guess it's a publicity stunt," Trump told reporters as he left the White House for North Carolina. "To be honest, I'm not looking to give them any credibility," he added. Former Rep. Joe Walsh (Ill.), former Rep. Mark Sanford (S.C.) and former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld have each announced campaigns against Trump.

North Carolina political commentator Gary Pearce recently wrote in a column: “A national pollster who was doing surveys in North Carolina told me the Based on population projections, the state may gain an additional electoral vote after the 2020 presidential election. So, my fellow North Carolinians

Chat with us in Facebook Messenger. Find out what's happening in the world as it unfolds. (CNN) It became abundantly clear on Tuesday that the only way to truly resolve the issues at play in North Carolina 's 9th Congressional District is for voters to have a second opportunity to make their voices

Mecklenburg is the only county that voted more heavily Democratic, a change that has been seized upon to suggest that the Republican Party’s problems with suburban voters in 2018 are continuing or worsening.

But here we see how dramatic an outlier Robeson County was. Is there a lesson to be learned from how the Republicans managed to do so much better there?

Perhaps, but Robeson County is unusual in its own way. It’s home to members of the Lumbee tribe, helping the 9th District to be one of the most densely Native American districts in the country. The status of the tribe federally is murky, as The Washington Post reported last year, but it’s recognized by North Carolina.

As Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman points out, Bishop co-sponsored legislation earlier this year that would give the tribe more access to state grant money. It’s the sort of thing that might have an effect in a county that the Census Bureau estimates is nearly 40 percent Native American.

That shift in Robeson County, though, didn’t by itself give Bishop his victory. If Robeson had voted at the same margins as it did in 2018, Bishop would still have won, by about a half-percentage point. If every county had voted at the same margins as it did in 2018, Bishop’s victory would have been about 0.46 points.

Trump, with eye on 2020, seeks to bolster North Carolina Republican

Trump, with eye on 2020, seeks to bolster North Carolina Republican U.S. President Donald Trump is going all-out to try to keep a district of North Carolina in the Republican column in a special congressional election on Tuesday that may serve as a bellwether for his own fortunes in 2020. © Reuters/Bryan Woolston FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump greets supports as he arrives at a campaign rally in Cincinnati Trump heads to Fayetteville, a city in North Carolina's 9th district, on Monday to rally voters on the eve of the vote, a repeat of a 2018 congressional election that was tainted by fraud.

That’s what we saw last night and this morning, as most major media put out quick tweets and the dropped Meanwhile, in the other race of the night ( North Carolina District 3) the Republican actually beat If anything , it shows that both sides have a path forward. Trump can drive base turnout in key

It charged North Carolina with a “lack of institutional control” resulting in violations of bylaws governing extra benefits to athletes and ethical conduct. “ It is more likely than not that student-athletes received fraudulent credit by the common understanding of what that term means,” the panel said.

A key difference between this week’s special election and last year’s general was turnout. In 2016, then-incumbent Rep. Robert Pittenger (R) won his seat by about 16 points. Last year, Mark Harris (R) won by only 0.3 points. The Democrat got about the same number of votes in 2016 as in 2018, while Harris got more than 50,000 fewer votes.

That’s an interesting aspect to the special election results. Even though turnout was 33 percent lower than in last year’s general election, the results were about the same. Normally, drops in turnout mean shifts in the results, something we didn’t see in the 9th District race.

The smallest drops in turnout were in the two counties with the most voters, Mecklenburg and Union. The biggest drop in turnout? Cumberland County, where Trump held that rally.

That’s not to say that Trump’s visit didn’t have an effect. As MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki notes, early voting made up less of the total vote on Tuesday than it did last November — but it made up much less of Bishop’s total vote than McCready’s.

McCready got 48 percent of his total from the early vote. Bishop got 38 percent of his. McCready won the early vote by 7,400 votes and lost Election Day by 11,300. The county where the change in the importance of the Election Day vote was greatest since 2018? Cumberland County, where Election Day votes made up 49 percent of the vote in 2018 and 69 percent of the vote on Tuesday. (The next biggest drop was in Bladen County, right next door.)

Back to the big-picture question. What does this tell us about 2020?

The short answer is that it’s hard to say. It’s clearly the case that the district voted more heavily Democratic than it did in the 2016 House race or in the presidential contest that year. Trump won the 9th District by about 12 points, 10 points better than Bishop. His team might be worried about the Mecklenburg suburbs — but also about Union County, which voted about 10 points more Democratic on Tuesday than it did in the 2016 presidential contest.

Cumberland, Anson and Bladen counties ended up voting about as heavily Republican on Tuesday as they did for Trump, but that’s fewer than 57,000 voters. About 109,000 people in the Mecklenburg-9th District overlap voted in the 2016 presidential race, according to Daily Kos analysis.

Without knowing which 30,000 Mecklenburg-9th District voters cast ballots last November without voting in Tuesday’s special election, though, it’s tricky to read too much into it. The 2020 general election turnout will certainly be more robust than a special congressional contest.

That’s the problem with augury. Sometimes the entrails aren’t as easy to read as you’d like.

The Latest: GOP claims voter confusion in special election.
North Carolina Republicans claim election officials in one county provided the wrong address for a voting precinct ahead of a hotly contested special congressional election. But state election officials say voters were notified of the address change weeks ago. 

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