The historically diverse Democratic field may soon be represented entirely by white candidates
There’s an obvious reason why.The field has admittedly been very fluid, meaning that predictions about what will happen in a few weeks — much less two months — should be considered risky. But while most of those who’ve dropped out over the course of the year were white men (including two already this week), Harris was both the best-polling nonwhite candidate and, for a brief moment this summer, someone who looked as if she might ascend to the top tier of the crowded field. That surge, following the first debate, soon faded, and Harris never regained her momentum.
Dozens of voters said they see “ electability ” as a combination of personality, energy, and ability to connect with an audience that has little to do with But the vast majority of Democratic voters aren’t thinking about electability in terms of ideology, geography, or electoral margin, according to
Many Democratic voters are agonizing over whether they should support their favorite candidate or the one who is most likely to defeat President Trump The discussion around electability might be expanding beyond its usual narrow borders, in ways that could bring it in closer alignment with reality.
Most Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say they’re planning to vote for their favorite candidate in next year’s primary, finds, but about one-quarter say they’re instead planning to vote for a more electable alternative.
Sixty percent say they’re planning to vote for their favorite candidate, and 24% say they’re planning to choose someone who isn’t their favorite but has a better shot of winning. The rest aren’t sure.
2020 Democrats chase mirage of Obama coalition
Since Barack Obama's White House wins in 2008 and 2012, political mythology has grown around the emerging voting coalition that made him president — the Obama coalition. © Provided by Washington ExaminerHillary Clinton failed to reconstruct it in her 2016 loss to President Trump. And a scrum of 2020 Democrats now argue they're best positioned to find Obama's magic electoral elixir, what the New York Times called it in late 2016, "an alliance between black voters and Northern white voters, from Mr.
“If they ’ re not going to get along, they need to keep quiet,” said Beverly Hall, 63, another Others have specific qualms: a concern that their favorite candidate lacks that essential quality, electability ; a That could be considered positive news for the president, some Democratic voters conceded in
Seventy-five percent of Democratic voters now say they have a favorable impression of Elizabeth Warren, a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds. Poll: Democrats Most Like Warren, But Voters Overall Are Lukewarm On Democrats , Trump. That's down to just a quarter of Democrats now.
There are a few grains of salt to be taken here. First, people aren’t always great at explaining their decision-making process, even to themselves. And second, many voters haven’t actually made a firm decision yet. Slightly over half of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters ― 55% ― say they have a good idea of whom they’ll vote for in the primary next year. Another 36% say they’re still making up their minds.
The results, however, may help provide a fuller picture of how much of a role the idea of “electability” plays in shaping voters’ preferences. Polls this yearDemocrats to be focused on finding a nominee who’s able to bring down President Donald Trump. But most primary voters also believe that multiple candidates would be able to pull off a victory: In the most recent survey, nearly three-quarters say at least two candidates could win, and roughly half say three or more candidates could do so.
Poll: Kelly leads McSally in Arizona Senate race
Retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) leads Sen. Martha McSally (R) by a narrow 3-point margin in Arizona, a state critical to Democratic chances of recapturing the Senate in the 2020 elections, according to a new poll. A poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights shows Kelly leading McSally by a 47 percent to 44 percent margin, fueled by a substantial gender gap. Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), leads among women by a 53 percent to 38 percent margin, while McSally leads among men by a smaller 51 percent to 41 percent margin. Kelly holds a 10-point lead in Maricopa County, which contributes about 60 percent of the statewide vote.
The majority of Democratic voters and Democratic leaners don’t have a preference when it comes to the race or gender of their party’s nominee, according to Much like we’ve seen in poll after poll so far this cycle, voters in the survey noted that they prioritized “ electability ,” or the ability of a candidate to
Majorities of Democrats also say it is not important that their party's presidential nominee be a Results from Gallup's question pitting electability against agreement on issues (included in May Roughly six in 10 Democrats say it is not important to them that the Democratic Party nominate a
Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the candidate most broadly seen as capable of winning the general election. A 64% majority says Biden can win, with half saying the same of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), 45% of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), 27% of South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and 22% of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. No other candidate was viewed as capable of winning by more than one-fifth of those surveyed.
Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are most likely to be excited about the prospect of nominating Warren (43% say they’d be enthusiastic if she were the nominee), Sanders (39%) and Biden (38%), followed by Buttigieg at 27%. About 1 in 5 would be upset if Biden were nominated, with 18% saying the same of Sanders, 15% of Buttigieg and 12% of Warren. The only candidates whose nomination would be upsetting to more than one-third of these voters are Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) and self-help author Marianne Williamson.
Election going to the dogs: Polling station pooches trending
Britain's general election was going to the dogs Thursday as voters took their pooches to polling stations up and down the country. Prime Minister Boris Johnson set the tone early when he took his Jack Russell cross Dilyn with him as he voted in London. The city's mayor, Sadiq Khan, followed Johnson's lead, posting a video of himself and his dog Luna at a polling station and urging people to vote. By early afternoonPrime Minister Boris Johnson set the tone early when he took his Jack Russell cross Dilyn with him as he voted in London.
Democratic voters valuing honesty or empathy over experience or electability propelled Mr. Sanders to a A quarter of Democratic voters said the right experience was most important to them , while slightly Instead, just as many voters said the next president should change to more liberal policies
Almost half of voters said they ’ re dissatisfied rather than angry with the way the federal government is working. Democrats are not focused on electability – in this case, neither are Republicans Instead three- quarters of Democratic voters say they made their choice a week or more ago.
Overall, 35% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say they’re enthusiastic about the state of the Democratic primary field, 40% that they’re satisfied, 14% that they’re dissatisfied, and just 4% say they’re upset.
This poll didn’t ask Democrats directly for whom they intended to vote. But it comes amid a spate of other polls that find Biden retaining his front-runner status, with Sanders and Warren also polling in the double digits and Buttigieg bringing up fourth place. puts Biden at about 26%, with Sanders at 17%, Warren at 15% and Buttigieg at 10%. , similarly, has Biden taking 26% to Warren and Sanders’ 16% each, with Buttigieg at 10%. Biden at about 28%, Sanders at 18%, Warren at 16% and Buttigieg at 9%.
Use the widget below to further explore the results of the HuffPost/YouGov survey, using the menu at the top to select survey questions and the buttons at the bottom to filter the data by subgroups:
The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted Dec. 6-7 among U.S. adults, including 364 Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.
Old and young voters show surprising allegiances in the Democratic race
It is, so far, the year of unexpected demographic juxtapositions, a year that has defied the assumptions of some pundits and politicos who say candidates of a certain age, race, or gender tend to appeal to voters who share those traits. They recall Hillary Clinton’s strength with female voters in 2016 and Barack Obama’s edge with both younger and black voters in the 2008 primary.So what is the difference now?© Cheryl Senter/Associated Press Democratic presidential candidate South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg met supporters after speaking at a campaign event on Dec. 5 at New England College in Henniker, N.H.
Nearly three- quarters of Republican primary voters said it was still too early for them to make up their minds “for sure,” meaning that they could shift their allegiances Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who won her party’s primary in New Hampshire, still has an edge on electability , a substantial advantage
Voters in early states regularly say they like Warren ― but they ’ re not sure she can win. Adam Green co-runs the Progressive Change Campaign Committee Biden backers argue his electability comes from both his own popularity with white working-class voters ― which remains untested ― and his
HuffPost has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls. about this project and in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. More details on the polls’ methodology are available .
Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some but not all potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error.This article originally appeared on .
Democrats Asked for a Mostly White Debate Stage .
Debaters lamented the absence of candidates of color onstage. But it was the voters’ will.Voters of color in the Democratic presidential primary have few illusions about the electorate to which they’re submitting a candidate. It is majority white. It elected President Trump with majorities of white voters across age, gender, and income in 2016. It generates outcomes, more often than not, based on the whims of a minority of fickle white voters living in a handful of mostly midwestern swing states, like Wisconsin and Ohio.