Politics Ideological divides among partisans deepen: ABC News polling analysis

15:05  12 july  2020
15:05  12 july  2020 Source:   abcnews.go.com

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A new ABC News /Fusion poll , marking the launch of the Fusion television network, finds vast While these issues divide a variety of Americans, this poll , produced for ABC and Fusion by These sorts of divisions , it should be noted, aren't new; wide gaps between partisan and ideological groups long

A summary of ABC News polling standards and methodology follows. Langer Research Associates, primary polling provider to ABC News , advises the news division on standards for disclosure Weights may include average partisan self-identification in current and recent ABC /Post data, based

A long-term rise in political polarization is heading full steam into the 2020 election, with conservatism among Republicans accelerating to its highest level in ABC News/Washington Post polls back 22 years and liberalism among Democrats near its record, set last year.

a person standing in front of a flag: U.S. flags are reflected in a surface at the base of the Washington Monument with the U.S. Capitol in the distance, Dec. 15, 2019, in Washington, D.C. © Samuel Corum/The New York Times via Redux U.S. flags are reflected in a surface at the base of the Washington Monument with the U.S. Capitol in the distance, Dec. 15, 2019, in Washington, D.C.

As the country grapples with questions about political discourse, disinformation and partisan echo chambers, this analysis demonstrates Americans’ sharpening ideological divide. Given vast partisan and ideological differences in public attitudes on politics and policy – from social justice issues to responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond – the results indicate the shrinking space for a political middle ground.

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This ABC News /Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 18-21, 2017, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. Partisan divisions are 31-23-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News /Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 12-15, 2010, among a random national sample of 1,083 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents, with an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the

On average in 2001 and 2002, 50% of Republicans called themselves conservatives. On average this year, 71% do so, up 21 percentage points, with a 10-point rise in just the past three years. Far fewer Democrats are liberals, 43%, but that’s up 12 points from its low in 2000 and 2001, and just off its peak of 46% in 2019.

a close up of a map: Ideology by Party, 1999-2020 © Provided by ABC News Ideology by Party, 1999-2020

This analysis was produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, which directs the ongoing ABC News/Washington Post poll for the network. It’s based on 217,489 interviews in 22 years of ABC News and ABC/Post polls, grouped into annual averages. The large sample sizes mean that even small changes on an annual basis are statistically significant.

Increased polarization among adults under age 50 is a striking component of the rise in ideological/partisan sorting. The share of under-50 Democrats who identify themselves as liberal is up 16 points since 2001, from 33% to 49%, compared with a 9-point increase among those 50 and older. (Liberalism peaks among Democrats age 18-29, at 57%, up 22 points.)

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Nonwhites roughly divided , 52-48 percent, Clinton-Sanders. Ideological divisions are sharper than ever. Edison Research conducted this exit poll at polling places throughout New Hampshire today for the National The results were analyzed here by Langer Research Associates for ABC News .

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Across the way, the share of Republicans younger than 50 who say they’re conservative has gained 23 points since 2001, compared with 14 points among those 50 and older. Conservatism among younger Republicans now matches that of their older peers, at 70%.

a screenshot of a cell phone: Ideology among Partisans by Age © Provided by ABC News Ideology among Partisans by Age

While age stands out, the growth in conservatism is largely consistent across groups, up 16 to 24 points from its overall low in 2002.

Conservatism among Republicans peaks at 76% of evangelical white Protestants and 76% of those with some college education but no four-year degree. It’s 72% among white Republicans, compared with 62% among those of other racial or ethnic backgrounds.

On the flip side, liberalism among Democrats reaches 60% of post-graduates and 62% of those with no religious affiliation – up 18 points since 2002, compared with 5 points among Democrats who are religiously affiliated. This partly reflects the change by age; younger people are less apt to express a religious preference.

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ANALYSIS By GARY LANGER. As in most of these questions, there are large partisan and ideological divides on the issue. Confidence in Obama to come up with a successful strategy again largely is partisan ; 78 percent of Democrats are confident, falling to 49 percent of independents and

Among those questions with trends dating back to 1994, the sharpest partisan divides come on the Taken together, this means that the share of Americans holding a mix of ideological views on these And on a matter as personal as housing, partisans can't even agree on the type of neighborhood

The rise in liberalism among Democrats also differs by race and ethnicity. It's up 16 points since 2001 among whites, from 32% to 48%, and 13 points among Hispanics, from 27% to 40%. That compares with essentially no gain among Black Democrats, 35% liberals this year.

The rise of polarization in each party is evident in the strengthening relationship between ideology and partisanship. Expressed in a correlation, in which 1 is a perfect fit and 0 is a perfect miss, the link between one’s party and one’s ideology has grown in ABC/Post polls from .39 in 1999 to .61 in 2020 so far, its strongest on record. Exit polls, dating farther back, tell the same story, from .32 in 1976 to .65 in 2018.

a close up of a map: Annual Average Correlation Between Party Identification and Ideology © Provided by ABC News Annual Average Correlation Between Party Identification and Ideology

Notably, ideological/partisan sorting has risen as expressed allegiance to political parties continues a gradual decline. A plurality of Americans, 37%, identify themselves as independents, up from a low of 30% in 2004 to essentially match its peak in 2009, 2010 and 2014. Twenty-nine percent are Democrats, down from a high of 36% in 2008; and 24% are Republicans, roughly steady since 2009, down from 31% in 2003.

Adults younger than 50 are especially apt to call themselves independents, up 10 points since 2008 to 42%. That compares with 37% of those 50-64 and 26% of seniors, each with little clear trend over time.

a close up of a map: Party Identification Annual Averages © Provided by ABC News Party Identification Annual Averages

In terms of ideology alone, 22% of Americans are liberals, down from a peak of 25% in 2018, albeit largely steady the past two decades. A larger share, 35%, are conservatives, again largely stable, though down from a high of 38% in 2010. The rest, 39%, are moderates.

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usr: 3
This is interesting!