Politics Forecast: Race between Biden and Trump is within the true margin of error

02:15  14 july  2020
02:15  14 july  2020 Source:   cnn.com

Biden hires top aides for Pennsylvania

  Biden hires top aides for Pennsylvania Former Vice President Joe Biden has added two top Democratic aides to head his campaign operations in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state in this November's general election.First reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Biden campaign confirmed to The Hill that Brendan McPhillips has been hired as Pennsylvania state director and Sinceré Harris will be a senior advisor in the state's operations.Both McPhillips and Harris are seasoned political operatives with a "combined decades of experience in high-profile local, statewide, and national progressive campaigns," according to the Biden campaign.

When survey results are that low, they are said to be within the “ margin of error ” of zero, meaning there’s technically a chance the candidate has close to no support at all. Ms. Gabbard’s poll numbers in qualifying national and state polls have hovered between 0 and 2 percent throughout the campaign.

A new poll in Texas showed Joe Biden leading President Trump . There are 16 weeks to go before the general election between President Trump and his Other recent polls have suggested a close race in Texas, but this was the first public survey to show Mr. Biden exceeding the margin of error .

There is little doubt that former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead in the polls right now. He regularly posts double-digit advantages nationally and is ahead in the key swing states. If the election were held today, Biden would almost certainly be elected president.

Joe Biden, Donald Trump are posing for a picture © Getty Images

But the election is not being held today. It's being held in a little less than four months. That's a lot of time.

And given the size of Biden's lead (clear, but not a blowout), the race can definitely shift enough to characterize this race to be within the true margin of error.

Poll: Biden leads Trump by 4 percentage points in general election match up

  Poll: Biden leads Trump by 4 percentage points in general election match up Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 4 percentage points nationwide in a new Hill-HarrisX general election poll. Forty-three percent of registered voters said they would support Biden for president if the election were held today. By contrast, 39 percent of voters in the July 3-4 survey said the same of Trump.Five percent of voters said they prefer someone else. An additional 5 percent of voters said they do not plan to vote in the election, one percentage point up from the same survey conducted last month.Eight percent of voters are still undecided, down a percentage point from last month.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are facing a combination of conventional and wildly atypical challenges as they attempt to reposition themselves for the general election. His efforts to smooth divisions within the Democratic Party have taken place over the phone or in public forums like television interviews.

Biden ’s victorious campaign for the Democratic nomination has done little to put wind in the former vice president’s sails, but rather has left him in a slightly worse position in a matchup against Mr. Trump than when he began. His plus-3 net favorability rating there is now within the margin of error .

To be clear, I don't mean that Biden and Trump have similar chances of winning -- far from it. Biden is clearly the favorite.

What I mean is that people often don't realize what odds actually mean. Something may not have a likely chance of occurring, but it's quite conceivable that it does happen.

Whenever you see a poll published, you'll see the result comes with a margin of error. The margin of error essentially means that for a given population, 95% of the time a poll's result will come within the margin of error of the true value. There's a 2.5% (1 out of 40) chance a result will fall outside the margin of error on the low side, and a 2.5% (1 out of 40) chance a result will fall outside the margin of error on the high side.

It's not shocking at all to receive a poll result back that's outside the margin of error. It's even less surprising when a poll comes in within the margin of error of the other results, though at the high or low end of the polling results published.

Trump says Biden has been 'brainwashed': 'He's been taken over by the radical left'

  Trump says Biden has been 'brainwashed': 'He's been taken over by the radical left' President Trump said Thursday that former Vice President Joe Biden (D) has been "brainwashed" by the "radical left." "Joe is just, look let's face it, he's been taken over by the radical left. He has no clue what they're doing," Trump said in an interview with Fox News anchor Sean Hannity. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.getMedianetNativeAds(true); }); "They brainwashed him, he doesn't know where he is, he doesn't know what he's doing and our country will suffer.

It's Trump 46% to Biden 's 45%, a result well within any margin of error . It's pretty clear looking at If anything Democrats actually slightly outperformed their final polls in the 2016 presidential race and View Trump and Biden head-to-head polling. Things may change the closer we get to the election

Biden : If Trump opened the Bible, he'd learn something. The CNN Poll of Polls is an average of the five most recent non-partisan, live-operator, national surveys on the general election matchup between Biden and Trump among registered The Poll of Polls does not have a margin of sampling error .

Borrowing from this margin-of-error concept, there's literally no reputable forecast I know of that suggests that Biden's advantage is outside that 95% confidence interval when projecting forward to November.

You can see how a race can change from this point forward by looking at history.

Earlier this month, I examined the 13 elections featuring incumbent presidents since 1940. I noted that in two of the 13 presidential contests, the difference between where the national polls were at this point and the eventual margin was greater than 10 points.

That's more than the current margin between Biden and Trump. Two out of 13 times is well more than 2.5%. One of 13 times is plenty more than that.

If you were to expand to contests without incumbents, you will find even more examples of big swings. I wrote about the 1988 election a few weeks ago. The difference between the polls at this point and the election result (Republican George H.W. Bush by 8 points) and the polls in mid-July (Democrat Michael Dukakis by 5 points) was double digits.

Biden builds 5-point lead over Trump in Texas: poll

  Biden builds 5-point lead over Trump in Texas: poll Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads President Trump in Texas by 5 points, according to a new poll. Former Vice President Biden has 46 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 41 percent, based on a Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler poll released Sunday. An additional 14 percent of voters said they were undecided. Biden's lead comes after a similar poll from April found that Biden and Trump were tied at 43 percent each in April. Kenneth Bryant Jr.

Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, he trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within the margin of error . That ’s been true for a long time. But many state pollsters, unlike the national polls, I should note, did not adjust for that , which

Biden ’s 8-point advantage is outside the poll’s margin of error . However, given that 11 percent are undecided or Even small differences in party loyalty and defections matter in tight races . Biden ’s favorability among Democrats sits at 81 percent and Trump gets 85 percent among Republicans.

This historical study doesn't even take into account that Trump likely has a better shot of winning the Electoral College than the popular vote.

Importantly, you can look at a lot of different odds makers and reach conclusions similar to mine.

The betting markets, which I believe are overestimating Trump's chances, give him about a 2-out-of-5 (40%) chance of winning a second term. (It should be noted that betting markets gave Bob Dole a similar chance of winning in 1996, when he faced a deficit similar to Trump's now. Dole lost.)

Jack Kersting's forecast, which I've cited before, puts Trump's chance of winning at about 1-in-6 (just north of 15%).

There's also the Economist forecast, which gives Trump about a 1-in-10 (around 10%) chance of winning.

There are clearly differences among these odds. The similarity across all of them is that Biden is ahead, though not by enough to have a lead that can be considered anywhere close to being outside the true margin of error.

The worst result for Trump is having about a 1-in-10 chance. His shot would need to be below 1-in-40 to be considered outside the true margin of error.

Poll finds Trump with lead in Missouri, but numbers are slipping

  Poll finds Trump with lead in Missouri, but numbers are slipping President Trump has an edge over former Vice President Joe Biden in Missouri, but there are signs that his support there may be slipping, according to a Saint Louis University/YouGov poll released on Monday. The poll shows Trump garnering 50 percent of the vote in Missouri, putting him 7 points ahead of Biden, That is still less less than his margin of victory in the Show-me State four years ago, when he won more than 56 percent of the vote. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.

Articles must be published within the last two weeks. More Info. Submissions must be from domains on the whitelist. While ill be voting for Biden in Texas. I've noticed some of the trump fans on my Facebook feed have started endorsing jo jorgensen who I think is the Above 50% + margin of error .

Joe Biden appears in a stronger position to oust an incumbent president than any challenger since Bill Of course, five months remain until the presidential election. There is plenty of time for the race to Indeed, the 2016 race was characterized by a predictable, mean-reverting oscillation between

Indeed, we still have a lot of events and potential game changers ahead of us.

There are the conventions, which sometimes (though not recently) have really shaken things up historically.

We have an economy that seems to be more prone to shocks than usual, which could shift voter opinions.

Additionally, the coronavirus pandemic is bad right now, but there's no real way of knowing how things will be when voters are casting their ballots. Perhaps the case rate will be lower. Maybe there will be better treatments. We just don't know.

Speaking of the coronavirus, it feels like this campaign isn't even really underway. Usually, a presidential campaign is the main news story by this point. But with the pandemic and the protests against police brutality, it's been the number three story over the last month.

The campaign will eventually become the number one story. With a compressed time frame, we may see bigger jumps later in the campaign than we're used to in modern campaigns.

The bottom line is that unless the economy totally falls apart or Biden starts leading by closer to 20 points than 10 points, this election will never be anywhere close to being safely in his corner at this early juncture.

Joe Biden continues to run well ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 pace .
Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania voters finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 52% to President Donald Trump's 42%, across different turnout models. © Patrick Semansky/AP Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event, Tuesday, July 14, 2020, in Wilmington, Delaware. Monmouth's poll looks a lot like a June New York Times/Siena College survey that put Biden ahead by 10 points. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.

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This is interesting!