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Politics Arguments over whether to count illegal aliens in Congressional apportionment may be moot

17:47  26 july  2020
17:47  26 july  2020 Source:   thehill.com

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The ACLU lawsuit claims not counting illegal aliens in congressional apportionment is unconstitutional. “The new policy of excluding undocumented immigrants from the Census conveys a xenophobic message aimed at suppressing Census participation from households containing

Yes, it does. Seats in the House of Representatives are awarded based on population. If the census sends out forms that ask you some simplistic questions, like “How many people live at this address?” or “Do you own a television?” pretty much every

On July 21, 2020, President Donald Trump issued an executive order to exclude undocumented aliens from the apportionment base that will be established this year by the 2020 Census. Apportionment is the process of dividing up the 435 seats in the House of Representatives among the 50 states according to population.

Donald Trump wearing a suit and tie: Arguments over whether to count illegal aliens in Congressional apportionment may be moot © Getty Images Arguments over whether to count illegal aliens in Congressional apportionment may be moot

This has resulted in a flurry of lawsuits claiming that the order is unconstitutional, which seems to happen every time Trump issues an executive order on immigration. These challenges haven't had much success when they reach the Supreme Court.

Trump aims to bar undocumented immigrants from counting toward House representation

  Trump aims to bar undocumented immigrants from counting toward House representation President Trump on Tuesday issued an executive order that blocks undocumented immigrants from being counted in the 2020 census for the purpose of allocating congressional representation.The order, which will almost certainly face legal challenges, amounts to something of a workaround for Trump after the Supreme Court last year blocked the administration from adding a citizenship question to the decennial survey.The rationale for the memo rests on the argument that the president has final say over transmitting the final census report to Congress and that the constitution does not explicitly define which persons must be included in determining apportionment.

The next section analyzes whether Congress could statutorily exclude aliens from the census count for On the other hand, it could be argued that Congress 's broad constitutional authority over the The argument could be made that counting aliens as "persons" for apportionment purposes dilutes

Because illegal aliens should not even be in the country, and other nonimmigrants such as foreign students and guest workers are here only temporarily, it makes no sense to distribute Congressional seats as if these foreign nationals deserved representation the same as American citizens.

The most recent one claimed that adding a citizenship question to the 2020 Census was unconstitutional. The Court rejected that argument, but remanded the case on the ground that the Trump administration had violated the reasoned explanation requirement of administrative law.

In any case, those challenging the order should consider whether it is even possible for Trump to implement it before they waste a lot of time on unnecessary litigation - I don't think it is.

The background

Article 1, Section 2, of the United States Constitution requires a census of the United States population every ten years to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College.

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Trump issued a memorandum that excludes illegal aliens from the counting of persons for congressional apportionment . In the last month, federal judges have ordered the release of more than 230 illegal aliens in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody — over 65 percent of

Counting illegal immigrants in the census will warp our elections and flies in the face of any common sense interpretation of the U.S. Constitution. Third, do Supreme Court precedents on one-person-one-vote require that illegal residents be excluded from the apportionment count because their

The Electoral College is the formal body that elects the president and the vice president. Each state has as many "electors" in the Electoral College as it has Representatives and Senators in congress, and the District of Columbia has three.

Steven A Camarota and Karen Zeigler, point out that apportionment is a zero-sum system. When immigration adds more population to some states than to others, it redistributes political power in Washington.

According to Trump, States that adopt policies which make it easier for undocumented aliens to enter this country unlawfully and hobble efforts to enforce the immigration laws should not be rewarded with greater representation in the House of Representatives.

For instance, Trump says current estimates indicate that one State [California] has approximately 2.2 million undocumented aliens and that if undocumented aliens are included in determining the upcoming apportionment, it could get two or three more congressional seats than it would otherwise.

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Mo Brooks (R-AL) says the counting of illegal aliens when dividing up congressional seats and electoral college votes is a violation of the 14th So, if you count illegal aliens in the Census for the purposes of distributing political power, that’s the number of congressmen per state or … the number

So, if you count illegal aliens in the Census for the purposes of distributing political power, that's the number of congressmen per state or the number of As Breitbart News has reported, the counting of only American citizens to divide up congressional districts and electoral college votes would shift

The estimates

How likely it is that a large enough number of undocumented aliens will participate in the 2020 Census to make their participation an issue?

This question can't be answered without knowing how large the undocumented alien population is.

If there are only a few thousand of them, there would be no reason to think that they might skew the results of a country-wide census in a country as large as the United States. If there are 50 million of them...

But the truth is that we have no idea how many there are.

Pew Research Center's (PEW) estimates of the undocumented alien population are highly respected - even the Congressional Research Service relies on them.

PEW uses a process developed by Jeffrey S. Passel with former colleagues at the U.S. Census Bureau and the Urban Institute. It's known as the "residual method" for estimating the number of unauthorized immigrants living in the country.

The same approach is taken by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), and the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR).

The residual method starts with the Census Bureau's annual American Community Surveys (ACS), which are used to estimate the number of foreign born people in the United States. Then, an estimate of the number of lawful immigrants in the United States is subtracted from the foreign-born population estimate, and the remainder is the estimate of the undocumented alien population.

These states would lose House seats under Trump Census order: study

  These states would lose House seats under Trump Census order: study Three states would likely lose seats in the House of Representatives if President Trump's order stands to exclude illegal immigrants from the apportionment process that allocates seats based on the census. © Provided by FOX News Reaction from former acting AG Matt Whitaker and Fox News contributor Richard Fowler. According to a study from the Pew Research Center, California, Florida and Texas would each end up with one less representative than they would otherwise get, based on overall population change.

No, illegal immigrants aren't allowed to directly vote for the commander-in-chief yet, but in vast numbers they can dramatically alter the Electoral College to favor However the legal drama plays out over the next few weeks, the number of people here illegally seems likely to keep declining.

banning illegal aliens from 2020 Census count for the purpose of Congressional representation. BREAKING: President Trump has signed an Executive Order Banning Illegal Immigrants from to bar people in the U.S. illegally from being counted in congressional reapportionment, a move that drew

In other words, Undocumented Immigrants (U) = Total Foreign Born (F) - Estimated Lawful Immigrant Population.

Using this method, PEW estimated that there were 10.5 million undocumented aliens in the U.S. in 2017; MPI estimated that there were 11.3 million in 2016; and FAIR estimated that there were 14.3 million as of 2019.

But the ACS surveys are sent each year to a rotating sample of only 2.6 percent of the American households, which amounts to approximately 3.5 million households. I doubt that such a relatively small survey has much statistical significance in a country as large as America, which has more than 330 million people.

Also, there is reason to doubt that many undocumented aliens participate in the ACS survey - and whether the ones who do answer the questions honestly.

Despite statutory protections which prevent the Census Bureau from sharing information with law enforcement and other government organizations, interviews and focus groups conducted by the Census Bureau indicate that immigrants are afraid that their responses will be used to identify and penalize them or their undocumented household members.

Such fear is particularly likely with respect to the ACS survey because it includes questions about race, Hispanic origin, place of birth, citizenship, and when a person came to live in the United States.

California sues Trump administration to mandate undocumented immigrants are counted for apportionment

  California sues Trump administration to mandate undocumented immigrants are counted for apportionment The state of California sued the Trump administration Tuesday to require it to count undocumented immigrants in the census for the purpose of allocating congressional representation.The lawsuit, led by California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) and several mayors in the state, says it would be unconstitutional for the Trump administration to not count undocumented people, and that it is an effort to strip away at least one of California'sThe lawsuit, led by California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) and several mayors in the state, says it would be unconstitutional for the Trump administration to not count undocumented people, and that it is an effort to strip away at least one of California's House districts.

In other words, the actual size of the undocumented alien population may be much higher than the estimates indicate - or much lower.

And there is no way to know the rate at which the undocumented alien population increases each year either.

DHS tries to keep track of how many aliens make illegal entries along the 1,954-mile Southwest border, but its records are based on the number of illegal crossers the border patrol apprehends and the number of got-aways. "Got-aways" are aliens who are observed making an illegal entry but are not caught.

DHS doesn't have any way of knowing how many aliens succeed in making an illegal crossing without being detected, and there could be a lot of them on a border that's nearly 2,000 miles long.

Unenforceable

Trump's main problem, though, is that there is no way for him to enforce his order.

How is he going to identify the undocumented aliens who participate in the Census?

I just filled out and submitted the 2020 Census questionnaire online. The requested information indicates my race, but it does not indicate whether I am an alien - or if so, whether I have lawful status.

I will be very surprised if Trump's executive order results in the exclusion of undocumented aliens from the apportionment base that is established by the 2020 Census.

Nolan Rappaport was detailed to the House Judiciary Committee as an executive branch immigration law expert for three years. He subsequently served as an immigration counsel for the Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims for four years. Prior to working on the Judiciary Committee, he wrote decisions for the Board of Immigration Appeals for 20 years. Follow him on Twitter @NolanR1 or at https://nolanrappaport.blogspot.com.

Census Bureau will finish count earlier than expected, deliver data to Trump .
The bureau’s director says it “continues its work on meeting the requirements” of the president’s request to exclude undocumented immigrants.The agency, which is part of the Commerce Department, had said this spring that it would require more time to complete its data collection because of the coronavirus pandemic. But amid a renewed push by Trump to remove those in the country without documentation from the count, Census Bureau Director Steven Dillingham now says the data will be sent to the president by the end of the year — and not next spring, when Joe Biden could be in the Oval Office.

usr: 3
This is interesting!