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Politics Democrats are stronger favorites in tight race for Senate control

15:08  01 august  2020
15:08  01 august  2020 Source:   cnn.com

Cook Political Report shifts several Senate races toward Democrats

  Cook Political Report shifts several Senate races toward Democrats The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, an independent online newsletter, shifted a handful of Senate races on Thursday in favor of Democrats, with the November general election just 103 days away.With the relabeling came a prediction: That Democrats, who currently control the House, will win back control of the Senate in November.Cook switched GOP Sens. Martha McSally (Ariz.), Joni Ernst (Iowa) and David Perdue's (Ga.) matchups againstWith the relabeling came a prediction: That Democrats, who currently control the House, will win back control of the Senate in November.

Right now, Democrats are clear favorites in three seats Republicans currently hold: Arizona (Sen. Democratic Sen. Doug Jones won a shocking victory in a 2017 special Senate election. The polling and strong Republican tilt of the state indicate that Republicans should win this race about 6-in-7 in

“With two weeks to go, control of the Senate is up for grabs,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. Democrats need to gain five seats to retake control of the Senate — four if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, which would give Tim Kaine, her vice president

Democrats know that if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the presidency, he'll need a Democratic-controlled Senate to accomplish a good part of his agenda. An examination of the Senate landscape reveals good news for them.

a large building © Alex Edelman/Getty Images

The Democrats' chance of wresting control away from Republicans has increased over the last few months. They are clearer favorites to take back Congress' upper chamber, though the race for Senate control is still well within the margin of error.

Bloomberg's gun control group spends $15M on campaigns in eight swing states

  Bloomberg's gun control group spends $15M on campaigns in eight swing states Everytown for Gun Safety, a gun control organization funded by Michael Bloomberg, announced Thursday it is spending $15 million on a digital ad campaign in eight swing states to help boost former Vice President Joe Biden and Democrats in competitive Senate races. The ad blitz is the opening salvo of the $60 million it has pledged to spend during the 2020 campaign. The targeted states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.

She's in a razor- tight race against Josh Hawley, the state's attorney general. She slammed Clinton for saying that Democrats can't be civil with Republicans until they are back in control of Congress. In states with strong Democratic bases, especially states with strong labor unions and large blocs of

Democrats have renewed their calls for tighter gun control measures in the wake of the mass shooting at a Florida high school last week, vowing to The issue is slightly more complex in Senate races , where the majority of Democratic incumbents are running in states that backed Trump in 2016

To gain a majority of seats, Democrats need a net pickup of between three seats (if Biden holds onto his lead over President Donald Trump, as his vice president would become the tie-breaking vote) or four seats (if Trump wins).

Democrats now have a little more than a 7-in-10 (70%) shot to win at least 3 seats and a little more than a 6-in-10 (60%) chance of winning at least 4 seats. In early May, it was 3-in-5 (60%) for at least a 3 seat gain and 1-in-2 (50%) for a 4 seat shift.

But then as now, there's a lot of uncertainty. We still have three months to go before the election. Applying a margin of error (based on past performance), it's possible Republicans could retain control and potentially even gain a seat or two. Democrats, meanwhile, could run the table and have a double-digit gain.

Internal Democratic poll shows tight race in key Texas House district

  Internal Democratic poll shows tight race in key Texas House district The race between Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and former Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis (D) is growing tighter, according to a new internal poll from Davis's campaign released exclusively to The Hill.The survey, conducted by Garin Hart Yang Research Group, showed Roy with 46 percent support and Davis close behind at 45 percent support. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump in the district by three points, 50 percent to 47 percent, according to the findings.The poll comes after Davis outraised Roy, a freshman congressman, by more than $850,000 in the second quarter of the year. Davis raised $1.4 million during the period and has $2.8 million cash-on-hand.

Dems gain momentum with Senate wins Democrats will retain their control of the Senate after winning several closely contested races on Tuesday. While poll

For Democrats to have a realistic chance of winning the three (or four) seats they need to retake the Senate majority in November, they need to expand the map of competitive Republican races while simultaneously limiting any unseen vulnerabilities in their own seats.

The reasons Democrats are likely to do well remain the same as it was in May. They have a lead north of 8 points on the generic congressional ballot. Additionally, Democrats only need to defend 12 of the 35 seats up for election this year, so they continue to have a wide array of choices. They have at least a 1-in-10 (10%) chance in two dozen (24) seats. They likely won't win all of these seats, but even if they lose a bunch of them, they still have a real shot at a majority.

Democratic chances to win in a number of these races have gone up since May.

Specifically, Democrats are doing considerably better in a number of races that were either tossups or previously leaning toward the Republicans:

  • North Carolina was best described as a tossup in early May. The polling, however, has moved in Democrat Cal Cunningham's direction. Although Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is still very much in the hunt, Cunningham now has about a 2-in-3 (67%) chance of defeating the incumbent.

  • Iowa was a race that was leaning in Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's direction. The recent polling, however, has actually given Democrat Theresa Greenfield the smallest of edges. Given the Republican tilt of Iowa, Ernst could close. For now, the race is a tossup (1-in-2 shot for both candidates), as opposed to May, when Ernst was a 3:1 favorite.

  • Republicans now only have small advantages in both Georgia Senate races. Republican Sen. David Perdue has about a 3-in-5 shot (60%) of beating Democrat Jon Ossoff in the regularly scheduled election. That's up considerably from May thanks to Ossoff holding close to Perdue in the polls. In the special election (with multiple candidates on both sides running in a jungle primary), the Republicans have closer to a 2-in-3 (66%) chance. The Republicans had just less than a 9-in-10 (90%) chance back in early May.

Beyond those four races, Democratic odds have not gone up greatly in any state.

Democrats’ Chances of Retaking the Senate Keep Improving

  Democrats’ Chances of Retaking the Senate Keep Improving Right now the Senate landscape is shifting steadily toward Democrats, who have far fewer vulnerable seats to defend.“Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.

Republicans have a strong chance to keep their Senate majority in Tuesday's midterm elections. Democrats still have a narrow path to winning Polling suggests Republicans have an edge to flip at least one Democratic seat, while the GOP either has a lead or is locked in tight races for all of the

Democrats snatched Republican Senate seats in Indiana and Massachusetts on Tuesday, averted what once were considered likely defeats in Missouri, North Dakota and Montana, and expanded their control of the Senate , handing Republicans a string of stinging defeats for the second campaign

Democrats, though, are now favorites to win four Republican-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. If they won all four, they'd be in a strong position to take control. In all of them, Democrats have at least a 2-in-3 (67%) chance. None of these are done deals by any stretch, though, and you could easily imagine Republicans winning a number of them.

Democratic chances have slightly improved in both Arizona and Colorado from about 3-in-4 (75%) in May to 4-in-5 (80%) now. In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly holds a 5 point or greater lead over Republican Sen. Martha McSally in most polls. There's less high quality polling in Colorado, though Democrat John Hickenlooper holds similar advantages over Republican Sen. Cory Gardner.

Things are more dicey for Democrats in Maine. Democrat Sara Gideon remains the favorite over longtime Repubilcan Sen. Susan Collins, but Collins has generally kept the deficit at or under 5 points.

While Democrats are favored in four Republican-held seats, Republicans are favored to pick up just one Democratic held seat. Republican Tommy Tuberville leads in the polls and has a little less than a 9-in-10 (90%) chance of defeating Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in the deep red state of Alabama.

100 Days: Democrats see clear path to Senate majority

  100 Days: Democrats see clear path to Senate majority Democrats have a clear path to winning back the Senate majority with just 100 days to go before Election Day.Biden has built up a significant lead over President Trump in polls, and his strength coupled with Trump's weakness is lifting Democratic candidates across the country. Democrats lead in polls in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, enough to win back the Senate if Biden takes over the White House even if Sen. Doug Jones (D) loses his underdog reelection bid in Alabama.

" Democratic chances of winning control of the chamber have improved significantly (in Democrats are running strong candidates and matching or out-fundraising their rivals even in traditionally red For Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to have a chance of becoming the Senate majority

While a Democrat has not won a US Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, the GOP primary race could very well determine which party controls the Senate The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently concluded that the Democrats are a "slight favorite " to take back the Senate as the President's

Indeed, Republicans have worse than a 1-in-10 chance (10%) in every other Democratic held seat.

Democrats, on the other hand, have multiple, even beyond the ones we've already listed.

The top of that list includes Montana, where Democrat Steve Bullock, the state's governor, actually has the tiniest of edges over Republican Sen. Steve Daines in the polls. Bullock is a slight underdog at a 2-in-5 chance (40%) because Montana leans Republican on the presidential level, which is up from a little more than a 3-in-10 shot (30%) in May.

Next up is Kansas, where Democrat Barbara Bollier has about a 1-in-4 (25%) chance in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator in nearly 90 years. The big question mark in this historically red state remains who her fall opponent is. If it's arch-conservative Kris Kobach, Kansas' former secretary of state, Bollier's chances rise. If it's someone else (probably Roger Marshall), they go down.

Three other traditionally states on the outer radar for Democrats are Alaska, South Carolina and Texas. Republican incumbents are favorites in all three, though Democrats have roughly between a 1-in-10 (10%) and 1-in-7 (about 15%) in all of them.

Kentucky is the only race that was above this 1-in-10 threshold for the Democrats in May that no longer is. Thanks to stronger polling, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell now has a 19-in-20 (95%) chance of retaining his seat, as compared to roughly 6-in-7 (85%) in May.

Iowa Senate candidate raises $132K after dog goes viral

  Iowa Senate candidate raises $132K after dog goes viral Iowa Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield raised $132,000 by highlighting her dog Ringo after Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) accused Greenfield of "hiding in the basement" with him.On a call with supporters, Ernst said that while she was discussing economic issues with constituents, Greenfield had been "hiding in her basement taking selfies with her dog, Ringo," as first reported by the blog Caffeinated Thoughts.Greenfield's campaign fundraised offOn a call with supporters, Ernst said that while she was discussing economic issues with constituents, Greenfield had been "hiding in her basement taking selfies with her dog, Ringo," as first reported by the blog Caffeinated Thoughts.

Overall, though, the picture is rosier for the Democrats than it was a few months ago. The fight for the Senate leans in their direction. Republicans maintain a clear pathway to a Senate majority, but it's narrower than it was in May.


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Imperiled Arizona U.S. Senator McSally's hopes seen riding on Trump train .
Imperiled Arizona U.S. Senator McSally's hopes seen riding on Trump train(Reuters) - U.S. Republican Senator Martha McSally shows every sign of being an imperiled incumbent, trailing Democratic challenger Mark Kelly in money and polling as President Donald Trump's electoral woes jeopardize Republican control of the Senate.

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