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Politics High Income Trump Supporters Less Likely to Express Support in Phone Polling

19:07  22 september  2020
19:07  22 september  2020 Source:   newsweek.com

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President Trump said he would announce his pick on Saturday. A new poll shows Joe Biden and Mr. Trump tied in Iowa. Romney says he supports moving forward to fill the Supreme Court vacancy. The poll represents a static race likely to be decided by relatively small movement on the margins.

A Rasmussen poll has found that many Donald Trump supporters are remaining silent about how they are going to vote, similar to 2016 when the Also possibly throwing results off is the 21 percent of likely voters who don’t associate with either major political party and say they are also more likely to

As the race heats up ahead of the U.S. presidential election, a new poll by Morning Consult found there is a group of high income Donald Trump supporters who are more likely to say they support him when asked online compared to phone polling.

Donald Trump wearing a suit and tie talking on a cell phone: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the press prior to his departure from the White House on September 19, 2020 in Washington, DC. Polls suggest that Joe Biden is edging him ahead of the presidential election. © Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the press prior to his departure from the White House on September 19, 2020 in Washington, DC. Polls suggest that Joe Biden is edging him ahead of the presidential election.

The president has long maintained that there is a silent majority waiting in the wings to vote him in on election day.

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First, Trump ’s support is not particularly ideological. In recent YouGov polls , 20 percent In terms of demographics, Trump ’s supporters are a bit older, less educated and earn less than the average Since regular Republicans are more likely to vote in primaries and attend caucuses than are leaners

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Morning Consult found in a survey of more than 2,400 people, that Trump receives lower support when asked on the phone versus online among those making $75,000 or more each year. Meanwhile, Democratic hopeful Joe Biden receives higher support on the phone than online in the same income bracket.

"Shy" voters are those that are not forthcoming about which horse they will back.

When Morning Consult first looked at the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon in 2015, it found that Republican primary voters were 6 percentage points less likely to say they supported Donald Trump when interviewed on the phone compared with online.

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This often understated Mr. Trump ’s support , since he The AAPOR report posited that the neighbor question could help overcome shyness among Trump supporters , particularly in phone interviews. Polls typically use a formula based on past elections to determine which voters are likely to show up

Mr. Trump didn’t just lose support to the undecided column; Mr. Biden ticked up to an average of 37 percent among white voters without a degree. His relative advantage in the Electoral College compared with the nation as a whole, or possibly among likely voters compared with registered voters

However, by the time Trump was the Republican presidential nominee in 2016, that effect had vanished among registered voters.

In the 2020 poll, when taken together, differences between subgroups did not change the overall finding that President Donald Trump lagged behind Joe Biden by around 10 percentage points in both polling methods.

Biden has pulled ahead with 55 percent support to Trump's 45 percent among those who took the survey online, according to this poll.

The Democratic hopeful also received 56 percent support on the phone, while Trump's potential voters were polling at 44 percent.

The same poll looked at whether a "social desirability" bias means polls conducted online versus on the phone glean different results.

When asked whether they believed there was discrimination in the U.S. today against a range of races, religions and sexual orientations, voters were much more likely to say there is discrimination against these groups when they answered on the phone.

Joe Biden's polling lead is reminiscent of Hillary Clinton's advantage over President Donald Trump throughout the 2016 election cycle.

That advantage preceding her defeat has led to speculation over the possibility of a similar result this time round.

Despite the possibility of "shy" Trump voters, other polls have suggested that there are fewer undecided voters than last time, meaning that 2020 polling promises to be less volatile than the elections of 2016.

Other polls have suggested the existence of a "shy Biden" support base.

Yahoo News and YouGov data collected from September 9 to 11 showed the majority of Trump voters live in pro-Trump areas.

More than half—65 percent—of Trump voters said that all or most of their neighbors would vote for Trump. Just 5 percent of Trump voters say that all or most of their neighbors will vote for Biden.

Meanwhile, Biden's electorate tend to live in more politically diverse areas where a smaller proportion (44 percent) said all or most of their neighbors will vote Democrat.

Whether "shy" voters come out of the woodwork for either camp in time for election day or not, right now, Biden remains ahead of Trump in the majority of national polling.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker places him 6.7 points ahead, while Real Clear Politics' poll tracker puts him 6.5 points in the lead.

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usr: 3
This is interesting!