Politics Election 2020: Why Joe Biden's lead is different than Hillary Clinton's was in 2016
How Pennsylvania could swing the presidential election to Trump again
Here's why the Keystone State will be a key vote in the presidential election.Activity flurry suggests N.
New polls released Sunday confirm it:holds a clear advantage over heading into the first debate on Tuesday.
Thegives Biden a 49% to 41% lead over Trump among likely voters. The puts Biden ahead 54% to 44% among likely voters. (It's a 6 point edge for Biden when Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and the Green Party's Howie Hawkins are included.)
Interruptions and Insults: All About the Very Uncivil Tone of the First Presidential Debate
Trump repeatedly interrupted and heckled Biden, who responded by calling the President a "clown" and telling him to "shut up"The candidates regularly attacked each other’s character, as Trump repeatedly interrupted and heckled Biden, who responded by calling the President a “clown” and telling him to “shut up.” Moderator Chris Wallace often failed to get the discussion back on track.
Biden may end up losing like Hillary Clinton (more on that in a minute), but Trump's job is significantly harder this time around. While Trump trailed Clinton at this point, the race was simply much closer in 2016.
You can see this well in thetaken just before that year's first debate. Clinton was up by a mere 2 points in both a direct matchup with Trump and one that included the two prominent third party candidates.
Thetells the same story. Today, Biden's up by about 7 or 8 points nationally. Clinton was by about 2 points, or had about one-fourth the edge Biden has in the polls right now.
‘Trump was like a wild beast’
Even longtime political observers had never seen anything like Tuesday’s debate. Forget what it means for the election—what does it mean for our democracy? 19 of them weigh in.Politico Magazine has a tradition of using debate nights to bring quick, authoritative perspective on America’s big political moments, inviting a range of insiders to look past easy takes and offer their insights on what really shifted in the campaign.
Biden being in a better position than Clinton has been a consistent story this election. It was true when I spoke about it in, , , and , and when the pointed it out earlier this week.
Importantly, new state polls released Sunday indicate Biden's well out in front in some key electoral battlegrounds as well. NBC News/Marist College polls put Biden up 52% to 44% inand 54% to 44% in . While are a little tighter, Biden's up by more than 6 points in both of those states. Clinton lost both states in 2016.
The race is within the margin of error inof Georgia (Trump 47% to Biden 46%) and North Carolina (Biden 48% to Trump 46%). Those though represent considerable improvements over 2016 for the Democrats, as Clinton lost those states by 5 and 4 points respectively.
But it goes beyond just the margin. Look at Biden's vote percentage. He's at just a little bit north of 50% in the average of all the national polls. Clinton's support was only in the low 40s before the debates. Even Trump, averaging around 43% in the polls, is getting a higher percentage than he was four years ago at this time.
Here's what was true and what was false from the first debate
As Trump and Biden attempted to make their points on the debate stage in Cleveland, NBC News fact-checked their claims in real time.NBC News fact-checked their statements in real time. For full coverage, visit the debate live blog.
There were a lot more undecided or third party voters at this point in the 2016 cycle. A little less than 20% of voters were undecided or going with a third party candidate. Today, it's less than 10%.
This undecided/third party group of voters were a pool that Trump could attract to make up the deficit he had to Clinton.
Indeed, that's exactly what happened, according to the. Clinton won by 6 points among those voters who decided before the final month of the campaign. Trump only won in states totaling 270 electoral votes and came as close as he did in the popular vote because he beat Clinton by 8 points among those who made up their minds in the final month of the campaign.
Given that there are far fewer undecided/third party voters this time, the chance of that happening again is slimmer than in 2016.
Still, it is possible that Trump comes back. We can't be sure what margin Biden needs to beat Trump by nationally in order to win a majority of electoral votes. History and statistical modeling this yearneeds to win nationally by 5 points or more to feel pretty safe about winning in the Electoral College.
Biden's ahead by only a few more points than that 5 point margin. While national polls are usually pretty accurate at the end of the campaign, theyby 3 points or more. (It happened as recently as 2012.)
Moreover, we still have to get through three debates. Debates don't usually move the dial that much, but it's completely conceivable that Biden's national lead is slimmed a point or two by them.
The bottom line remains the same. Biden has been and continues to be ahead. That lead is sizable, but doesn't guarantee anything.
What Icontinues to be true today: "Even if Biden maintains his current lead, past errors indicate Trump will still have a non-nominal chance to pull off the victory."
Democrat Joe Biden tests negative for coronavirus after President Trump reports positive test .
Democrat Joe Biden has tested negative for coronavirus, his doctor announced Friday, hours after President Donald Trump announced a positive testDr. Kevin O'Connor, the primary care physician, said Biden and his wife Jill were each tested and "COVID-19 was not detected.