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Politics Prediction markets ding Trump after first debate showdown

15:30  01 october  2020
15:30  01 october  2020 Source:   washingtonexaminer.com

Interruptions and Insults: All About the Very Uncivil Tone of the First Presidential Debate

  Interruptions and Insults: All About the Very Uncivil Tone of the First Presidential Debate Trump repeatedly interrupted and heckled Biden, who responded by calling the President a "clown" and telling him to "shut up"The candidates regularly attacked each other’s character, as Trump repeatedly interrupted and heckled Biden, who responded by calling the President a “clown” and telling him to “shut up.” Moderator Chris Wallace often failed to get the discussion back on track.

The first debate of the 2020 U.S. presidential election had no clear winner, but crypto-powered prediction platforms are having a field day. On FTX, Trump ’s brash debate performance got a big thumbs down and drove a 10% crash in the price of futures contracts backing his re-election.

President Donald Trump turned his first debate with Democratic rival Joe Biden into a chaotic disaster. Trump bullied, bulldozed and obfuscated his way through the 90-minute showdown , interrupting Biden and moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News at every turn.

President Trump's odds of winning the presidential election against Democratic nominee Joe Biden took a hit after the first of three presidential debates, according to three analyses of the post-debate betting markets, even as the Trump campaign billed the president's performance as "GREAT" in a Wednesday fundraising text message to supporters.

chart © Provided by Washington Examiner

Pointing to "substantial" 5 percentage point drop in Trump's odds of winning, Election Betting Odds' Maxim Lott told the Washington Examiner that the post-debate betting markets "show Trump as the clear debate loser." Election Betting Odds show Biden's chances of winning at 60%, with Trump's at 38.5%.

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President Donald Trump 's refusal to condemn a key far-right group has sparked outrage among opponents after a fierce and chaotic US election debate . The first of three televised debates between the two men ahead of the 3 November election descended into squabbling, bickering and

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"It seems that bettors think he turned off many moderate voters he needed to persuade with his flustered style, insults, and interruptions," Lott said on Wednesday. He called it "rare to see such a big swing in the odds from a single event."

Lott said that both candidates "had many weak moments" on the debate stage. Biden's failure to condemn Antifa or to say whether he would pack the Supreme Court stood out, as did Trump's couching of his words condemning white nationalists by telling the far-right Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by."

A further point Lott noted was that "bettors probably liked seeing Biden avoid having many 'senior moments,' which some people had feared."

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  Donald Trump sidesteps call to condemn white supremacists — and the Proud Boys were 'extremely excited' about it Debate moderator Chris Wallace asked if Donald Trump would urge groups to stand down and avoid contributing to the violence. He sidestepped.Watch the key moments from the first presidential debate

The debate on Tuesday will be the first of three between the two men. The faceoff between Trump and Biden comes as new cases of coronavirus tick higher, the once-rapid economic recovery shows signs of slowing down , and protests over racial injustice intensify following a grand jury decision not to

The first debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden quickly went off the rails, with each side lobbing bitter attacks and frequently talking over each other. Here are the key moments from the combative primetime event

He added, "Biden also came off as more dignified than Trump."

Prediction market Smarkets on Wednesday saw Trump's chances fall four percentage points to 38% after the debate, while Biden's chances grew five points to 62%.

chart, line chart: Smarkets U.S. Presidential Election Market Smarkets © Provided by Washington Examiner Smarkets U.S. Presidential Election Market Smarkets

"Going into the debate, the advantage was Biden’s to lose, and there were fears from a Democratic perspective that a bad performance would play into President Trump’s hands," Smarkets' Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi said in a statement Wednesday. Smarkets' exchange allows peer-to-peer betting and trading, meaning the odds reflect where bettors place their money, with no in-house weighting to distort the market.

“As predicted, Trump interrupted Biden frequently and made personal attacks on him and his family in an attempt to throw him off his game," Bakhshi said. "However, the former VP was well-prepared for the attacks and held his ground, giving a solid performance."

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Trump needed this debate to shake up a race that is tilting against him - and which A debate format that lumped together race issues and urban violence led to feisty exchanges that made clear Biden, in his very first exchange with the president, outlined his defence. The opening topic for tonight's

It's an open question whether Trump and Biden can keep the first presidential debate substantive Tuesday night and avoid the swift descent into the gutter politics that Trump seems to relish.

Biden's Tuesday night conduct "seems to have inspired some faith" among Smarkets traders, Bakhshi said, citing wagers in Smarkets' $5.5 million Next President market, predicting Biden's rising chance of victory while Trump's have slid.

Traders will be watching Biden's "stamina ... against Trump's attacks, knowing that if he falters, he could end up boosting the president’s hopes of a second term,” he added.

Betfair Exchange traders wagered bets that showed Trump's odds of victory falling three percentage points to 40% within an hour of the debate ending. Biden's odds grew four points to 60% in the same period on the exchange.

chart: Betfair Exchange © Provided by Washington Examiner Betfair Exchange

“Both candidates will claim victory in the debate, but odds speak louder than words and Betfair’s Swing-O-Meter indicates that Biden's chances of winning the election have improved while Trump has lost ground,” Betfair spokesperson Darren Hughes said in a statement.

“Biden has strengthened his position as favorite to win the U.S. election during the first debate," he added.

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  ‘All the red flags’: Political analysts warn of U.S. election violence in November With President Donald Trump refusing to commit to a peaceful transition of power in the event that he loses the upcoming election and violent clashes already unfolding in a number of states, political analysts are uniquely fearful as November approaches. Asked last week to commit to conceding should the November 3 election go in favor of Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Trump again cited unfounded claims about mail-in ballots leading to widespread voter fraud in justifying his reluctance.

The first US presidential debate quickly devolved from friendly greetings to chaos as Democratic challenger Joe Biden struggled to make his points while being When Trump again tried to interrupt, suggesting that the Democrats would add “radical left” judges to the court, Biden lost his temper.

Trump ensures first presidential debate is national humiliation | Analysis. Even with the widespread expressions of disappointment with Wallace’s debate performance, usually reserved analysts and newscasters couldn’t help but call the debate a failure.

Bettors wagered more than $1.29 million on Biden and Trump during the debate, tipping the total bet on the U.S. election to date past $129 million on Betfair Exchange.

The biggest bet of the campaign so far on Betfair was placed on Biden on Sept. 27, to pay out $370,000 if he wins on Nov. 3, Betfair's Tom Rawle confirmed to the Examiner.

Tags: News, White House, 2020 Elections, Campaign 2020, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Markets

Original Author: Katherine Doyle

Original Location: Prediction markets ding Trump after first debate showdown

'Will you shut up, man?': Testy exchanges on health care, Supreme Court among debate top moments .
They bickered on who should appoint the next Supreme Court justice, their stances on health care and even brought each other’s families into the fray. Moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News struggled to rein in the candidates and at times admonished Trump as interrupting more frequently than Biden. © Mario Tama, Getty Images A server wears a face shield and face-covering as people sit to watch a broadcast of the first debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Start the day smarter. Get all the news you need in your inbox each morning.

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