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Politics The Memo: Trump's second term chances fade

13:40  18 october  2020
13:40  18 october  2020 Source:   thehill.com

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The contours of a second - term agenda for President Trump Donald John Trump Five takeaways from Trump -Biden debate clash The Memo : Debate or Blakeman, the Trump ally, argued there was one added advantage to unveiling a 2020 agenda early, however. It greatly reduces the chances of any

First lady Melania Trump Melania Trump Eric Trump falsely calls president's coronavirus treatment The electoral question — whether Trump ’ s reelection chances will go up or down — is the hardest The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage, primarily focused on Donald Trump ’ s presidency.

Joe Biden is in the driver's seat with little more than two weeks left before Election Day.

a man wearing a suit and tie talking on a cell phone: The Memo: Trump's second term chances fade © Getty Images The Memo: Trump's second term chances fade

The Democratic nominee has a commanding lead in national polls over President Trump, and he also has the edge in almost all the battleground states.

Biden is being buoyed by prodigious fundraising and is outspending Trump on the airwaves.

Republican voices of dissent, including those of Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), are being raised against the president - a sign of deepening concern about the party's fate in Senate and House elections.

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President Trump told the White House counsel in the spring that he wanted to order the Justice Department To underscore his point, Mr. McGahn had White House lawyers write a memo for Mr But for Trump , the outrages and scandals are so constant that they just fade into the background noise.

Trump ’ s conduct — interrupting frequently, arguing with the moderator and making highly personalized attacks on his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden “People saying, ‘I really want to just go for a week without thinking about the president of the United States.’” The Memo is a reported column by Niall

Perhaps most crucially of all, time is against the president.

Barring a cataclysmic "October surprise," Trump's only obvious chance to change the shape of the race will come in the final presidential debate, set for Thursday evening in Nashville, Tenn.

The number of Americans voting early is also surging, leaving Trump even less room to maneuver. As of Friday, more than 20 million people had cast their ballots.

Trump loyalists and nervous Democrats are united on one point - that the president cannot be counted out, especially in light of his shock win in 2016, when state-level polls were badly wrong.

But there are key differences this time around - not least that Biden has led the race from the start and Trump has never come particularly close to erasing that gap.

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A top five-cable network, FNC has been the most watched news channel in the country for 17 consecutive years. According to a 2018 Research Intelligencer study by Brand Keys, FOX News ranks as the second most trusted television brand in the country.

President Trump was only vaguely aware of a controversial, classified memo about the FBI's Russia investigation when two House conservatives brought it to his attention in a Jan. 18 phone call. The conversation piqued Trump ' s interest. Support our journalism.

In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) national polling average, Trump has seldom come within 5 percentage points of Biden. That is very different from 2016, when polling was volatile and Trump completely wiped out Democrat Hillary Clinton's lead on a couple of occasions. Clinton also had markedly higher negative ratings than Biden does now.

The relative stability of this year's race suggests the nation may have made up its mind about Trump after four years of his tumultuous presidency.

The picture appears plain. A minority of the nation - somewhere around 30 or 35 percent - adores Trump. Those voters' support for him is apparently unshakeable.

Beyond this, Trump can add another few points from conservatives who don't care for his personal or rhetorical style but are willing to back him because of his ability to deliver on their agenda - a bargain that has been illustrated once again with the likely confirmation of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

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Lawrence talks with the person in a position to evaluate the memo released today: former Director of the White House Situation Room Larry Pfeiffer, who says

If confirmed, Barrett will become the third Trump nominee on the high court's bench, and the ideological balance will tilt firmly into conservative hands, with a 6-3 majority.

But beyond the Trump base, and a few additional conservatives willing to hold their nose and back the president, the rest of the nation is hostile.

In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last week, for example, 47 percent of registered voters said they "strongly disapprove" of Trump's performance as president, far outnumbering the 32 percent who strongly approve.

The same poll showed Biden with an 11-point advantage nationally. When voters were asked whether they might change their mind and vote for the other candidate, 48 percent said there was "no chance at all" they would vote for Trump. The equivalent figure for Biden was 37 percent.

Two factors in particular have proven to be millstones to the president.

Firstly, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic has been found wanting by most voters.

In an Economist/YouGov poll released last week, just 36 percent of Americans were confident in Trump's ability to do the right thing in the battle against the coronavirus whereas 57 percent said they were "uneasy." Asked the same question about Biden, opinion was almost even: 45 percent said they were "confident" in him and 44 percent "uneasy."

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The twenty-page memo sent by Trump ' s team of lawyers to Mueller's team in January discussed The memo argued that Trump is not required to answer to the office of special counsel's questions Second , there was no obvious investigation to obstruct since the FBI had concluded on January 24

To his detractors, President Trump Donald John Trump New Biden campaign ad jabs at Trump ' s reported 0 income tax payments Ocasio-Cortez “The midterms will be a good report card in terms of what the electorate feels,” said Brad Blakeman, who served on President George W. Bush’s senior

Secondly, Trump's standing with female voters is disastrous.

In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, women favored Biden by a 26-point margin, 60 percent to 34 percent. Trump held a much smaller advantage among men, 50 percent to 45 percent.

It is far from clear that any single controversy has been responsible for the drop in female support for Trump. It may be that the chaotic nature of his presidency and his appetite for crude personal insults has simply had a cumulative, negative effect.

It is always possible that Trump will win. There could be a late event that changes voters' minds or raises doubts about Biden. Democratic turnout could be lower than expected. The Trump campaign has put considerable emphasis on messaging to Black voters, though whether their real intention is to win votes or to depress Black turnout is hotly debated.

There is, too, the possibility of another major polling failure.

Trump partisans argue that too many public polls have either been opaque about their methodology or have sampling errors. If pollsters were to include a disproportionate number of voters with college degrees, for example, the results would tend to tilt against Trump. But this analysis leans on the idea that all the pollster could be wrong by wide margins.

If the polls remain roughly where they are now and Trump wins regardless, there will be serious questions raised about the future of the polling industry or the integrity of the voting process - or both.

Right now, however, there is no doubt about the scale and breadth of Biden's advantage.

He leads in the RCP polling averages in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - all states carried by Trump four years ago.

In the first two weeks of October, Biden outspent Trump by $56 million to $32 million on television advertising, according to an analysis from the Wesleyan Media Project.

Data site FiveThirtyEight gave Biden an 87 percent chance of prevailing as of Saturday evening.

Whatever Trump may say to the contrary, his chances of reelection look to be slipping away.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage, primarily focused on Donald Trump's presidency.

Debate transcript: Trump, Biden final presidential debate moderated by Kristen Welker .
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usr: 1
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