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Politics Why Trump vs. Biden is a lot like 2016 — and why it's not

15:40  18 october  2020
15:40  18 october  2020 Source:   nbcnews.com

Second presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump canceled

  Second presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump canceled Both campaigns have agreed to appear at the third and final presidential debate, a podium format set for Nashville on Oct. 22, the source said.The bipartisan commission, under intense criticism from the Trump campaign, announced the decision in a statement late Friday, saying the campaigns of both Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden "each now has announced alternate plans" for Oct. 15, the date of the debate.

Biden leading national presidential polls. National polls are a good guide as to how popular a As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer That ' s one of the reasons why some political analysts rate his chances of re-election as low as things stand.

But, on balance, it ' s that stronger performance of primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in That said, according to Newsday, there are some factors the professor doesn't take into account like the state of the world -- a Biden still remains in the lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup

WASHINGTON — It's Republicans' biggest hope and Democrats' biggest fear: That the 2020 election will be a rerun of 2016, with an upset victory for Donald Trump despite polls and conventional wisdom showing Joe Biden is on his way to the White House.

Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden are posing for a picture © Provided by NBC News

Four years ago this month, Trump's campaign was essentially left for dead as Hillary Clinton expanded her lead, Republicans fled the apparently sinking ship and Lin-Manuel Miranda taunted Trump with a rendition of "Never going to be president now" to the delight of Saturday Night Live fans.

But, of course, Trump ended up winning and his campaign says he can do it again.

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  Fact check: Joe Biden called 'forces of intolerance,' not Trump supporters, the 'dregs of society' Accounts linked to President Donald Trump and his family claim that Joe Biden called Trump supporters the "dregs of society." In reality, he said that about "forces of intolerance."A campaign account, Trump War Room, claimed on Twitter that the remark was in reference to "Trump supporters.

President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden have offered dueling visions of America in response to the death of George Floyd.Brendan If I had to boil it all down, the main difference, for me, as an anti- Trump Republican, is that the America Joe Biden describes is a place I'd like to live.

And so it proved. Biden , who was Barack Obama’ s righthand man for eight years and long the There’ s still a lot of room left for him to recover but if he’ s not willing to restructure his campaign, I Obama reportedly discouraged Biden from running in 2016 because he believed Hillary Clinton had a

"Looking back at the election of 2016, most members of the media had the polling wrong, and that’s really important to understand where we are today," former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told reporters, predicting a Trump blow out.

Some parallels between then and now are almost eerie.

The "Access Hollywood" tape and Trump’s Covid-19 news both came on Fridays 32 days out from the election. Biden and Hillary Clinton had the same 11-point lead in the October NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. And there's even a late-breaking email controversy involving a laptop of unexpected origins, just like the one that revived Clinton's email scandal days before the election.

So what's the same and what's different from 2016?

Ahead of 3rd debate, Trump again goes after moderator. This time it's NBC's Kristen Welker he calls 'unfair.'

  Ahead of 3rd debate, Trump again goes after moderator. This time it's NBC's Kristen Welker he calls 'unfair.' Trump praised Welker in the past, complementing her in January for landing a gig on NBC's "Today" show. "They made a very wise decision," Trump said."She’s always been terrible & unfair, just like most of the Fake News reporters, but I’ll still play the game," Trump tweeted Saturday.

As it happened: The Trump - Biden 'cat fight'. Shouting over Mr Trump , Mr Biden said: "My son, like a lot of people, like a lot of people you know at home, had a drug problem. As is normal after a presidential debate, both the Trump and Biden camps have been claiming victory for their candidate.

Why is it on the ballot? archived recording (joe biden ). Because you said —. And I think that we have seen at times when it looks like for Biden to lash out to the full extent of his ability. He dangled the possibility of a fast vaccine. We know that there are a lot of reasons to believe that that is not an

1. The message

In 2016, Trump was an outsider. Now he's the president with a record to answer for and facing voters who are generally unhappy with the state of the country.

In the home stretch four years ago, he surprised some observers by largely staying off Twitter and staying on message as he drove home his argument that "Crooked Hillary" was everything wrong with the Washington establishment. That kept the spotlight on Clinton and helped drive late-deciding voters Trump's way.

This year, Trump's campaign is pushing a similar message against Biden — but Trump himself is often distracted.

The president sometimes seems more interested in relitigating his race against Clinton than pursuing his current opponent. He hasn't articulated a clear second-term message. And he seems to be running as much against the news media as he against Biden. After Thursday's town hall on NBC, Trump's campaign declared that he "soundly defeated NBC's Savannah Guthrie."

Fact check: Viral video of Joe Biden on running for Senate is missing context

  Fact check: Viral video of Joe Biden on running for Senate is missing context A viral Facebook video claiming Joe Biden said he was running for Senate has been altered and leaves out key words. We rate it missing context.A viral 12-second clip on Facebook is now being used to claim that the former vice president got confused about which office he was seeking in the 2020 election.

“I hear it ’ s thousands,” Mr. Trump said. “They’re getting two ballots. I wonder if it ’ s Democrat areas.” “President Trump is making it clear: A vote for Judge Barrett to be on the Supreme Court is a vote to But the chief of staff, Mark Meadows, did not. Asked on CBS why Mr. Trump was undermining

Why the hawks want Biden . Trump ’ s foreign policy on the limited use of military force runs counter The military escalation under Obama- Biden surely explains the deep state’ s preference for Biden over Trump . It may well be a long time before Trump is clear of it and it may bring Boris Johnson down

"For most of the general election (in 2016), he was very disciplined and on message. You knew very clearly what his campaign was about and what he would do as president. Whether you agreed or not, you knew," said Republican strategist Matt Gorman. "That is not the same this time."

2. The opponent

Biden is more popular, less divisive and more difficult to caricature than Clinton, whom Republicans had spent decades attacking going back to her time as the first lady in the 1990s.

"The loathing of the Clintons was just ingrained in a lot of these voters," said Republican strategist Tim Miller. "Some of it was sexism. Some of it was my fault. Some of it was her fault. She was under investigation by the FBI during the election."

Miller was one of Clinton's biggest antagonists in the run-up to 2016 when he worked for a GOP opposition research super PAC. Now, he's the political director of Republican Voters Against Trump, which supports Biden.

Four years ago, polls showed voters viewed Trump as more honest and trustworthy Clinton, so his attacks on her resonated in a way they have not against Biden, who is now seen as far more trustworthy than Trump.

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  Hunter Biden's ex-partner says Joe Biden was involved in China deal Tony Bobulinski told the New York Post on Wednesday that he personally witnessed Joe Biden discuss business deals with his son, Hunter, contradicting claims by the former vice president. 'I’ve seen Vice President Biden saying he never talked to Hunter about his business.‘I’ve seen firsthand that that’s not true, because it wasn’t just Hunter’s business, they said they were putting the Biden family name and its legacy on the line.

Biden also said telling Trump to act like a president is a "stupid way to say it" and apologized for the Joe Biden : “I just can't figure the guy [ Trump ]. It ' s like , I don't know, it ' s like watching a yo-yo. I said I'm not going to sign the deal because Nancy Pelosi came in and put a lot of things in the

A big part of that 2016 story is late-deciding voters decisively breaking towards Trump , potentially handing him victory and several swing states. If we combine this implied support with our regular Reuters/Ipsos tracking survey data, we find that Biden ' s lead in the polling remains robust.

And Biden's white working-class roots make him "culturally inconvenient" for Trump, as former Obama strategist David Axelrod has put it, making him appealing or at least tolerable to a wider range of Americans.

But like Clinton four years ago, Biden has maintained a moderate campaign schedule in the closing weeks as Trump flies from swing state to swing state, packing in multiple events a day.

"I think you're going to see the president just flat out out-work Joe Biden in the home stretch just like he did against Hillary Clinton," said Jason Miller, another Trump 2016 veteran who is back to advise the current campaign.

3. The map

The 2020 election is being fought in more states than the 2016 race, when Democrats took for granted the so-called "Blue Wall" states that they didn't even realize were battlegrounds, like Wisconsin, which Clinton failed to visit before losing it.

Biden and allied Democratic groups are now flush with cash and competing for both 2016 swing states and new ones, like Arizona and Texas.

Trump threaded the needle on his path to victory four years ago by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by fewer than 80,000 votes, combined. This year, the president could repeat that path to 270 Electoral College votes, but he has very little room for error.

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Still, Trump won last time by turning out unexpected voters and there are still millions of white working-class non-voters who could come off the bench to cast a ballot for Trump. The last election also showed even the most informed observers can be paying attention to the wrong states and it's possible Trump's efforts to expand the map into places like Minnesota and New Hampshire could bear fruit.

"I wake up in the morning and I try to figure out what to go worry about. I have a 'Vote Biden' hat on right now, but it really should say PTSD," said Bradley Beychok, the president and co-founder of the Democratic super PAC American Bridge. "But in 2020, Democrats are going to run through the tape to defeat Trump so my 2016 redux fears diminish by the day."

4. The polling

Biden's lead is more stable than Clinton's ever was. There are fewer undecided voters, fewer voters opting for third-party candidates and fewer who say they are open to changing their minds before Nov. 3. Indeed, millions have already voted. And most experts see no evidence of "shy Trump voters" who hide their preference from pollsters, exaggerating Biden's real lead.

All that makes it difficult to imagine where Trump could find the kind of unexpected surge that helped put him over the top in 2016.

Voters who disliked both candidates in 2016 broke heavily for Trump, but they appear to be breaking for Biden this time, as are people who voted for third-party candidates or didn't vote in 2016.

Pollsters, meanwhile, have learned a lot in four years, when they came close to predicting the national popular vote but missed the results in key states. And they're conducting more polls, especially on the state level, giving a better picture of the race.

Debate transcript: Trump, Biden final presidential debate moderated by Kristen Welker

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Still, pollsters had some notable misses in the 2018 midterm elections, when they once again overestimated the strength of some Democratic candidates. And turnout, always difficult to predict, is an especially thorny question during the coronavirus pandemic.

W. Joseph Campbell, a professor at American University and author of the recent book, "Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections," said history shows pollsters often get elections wrong — but they rarely do so for the same reason twice, so there could be some new unforeseen issue that pollsters overlooked as they fought the last war.

"It’s not going to be a duplication of what we saw in 2016," he said. "Elections are all different."

5. The electorate

The 2018 midterm elections demonstrated the power of the suburban revolt against Trump, which has helped move states like Arizona toward Biden. And there's some evidence that older voters, a pillar of Trump's 2016 coalition, are softening on the president, too.

Meanwhile, Democrats are unlikely to have the same the problem they did in 2016 when many of their core voters, including tens of thousands of African-Americans in critical swing states, stayed home because they didn't take the threat of Trump seriously.

"People are just organizing on a continual basis now," said Democratic strategist Lynda Tran. "I'm not sure I've seen a presidential cycle where people are more motivated than they are now."

But some parts of the electorate have moved in Trump's direction.

The president appears to have made inroads with Latinos, for instance, and peeling away even a few percentage points could matter in tight races.

Republicans also have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, which is a very different story from 2016, since Democrats typically focus more on voter registration but pared that effort back during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Majority of voters say Biden won second debate, poll finds

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6. The parties

The two major political parties each are more unified than they were four years ago, when Trump faced GOP calls to drop out after the Access Hollywood tape surfaced and Clinton struggled to attract Bernie Sanders' progressive voters, some of whom cast ballots for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

If all of Stein's votes in Wisconsin went to Clinton, she would have won the state. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson won 4.4 million votes, including many from disaffected Republicans.

This year, far fewer voters say they plan to vote for a third-party candidate. The current Green and Libertarian Party nominees are far less visible or aggressive than Stein or Johnson were and say they expect many of their would-be supporters to vote for Biden to stop Trump.

But the pandemic has given Republicans two new potential advantages.

First, they've continued to organize door-to-door while Democrats have mostly sat out the ground game and instead organized digitally — a big reversal from 2016 when Clinton had far more boots on the ground than Trump. Second, Democrats are counting on their voters to figure out how to request and return ballots via the mail, which adds a new wrinkle to their get-out-the-vote operations.

"Ballots don't return themselves," Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien told reporters. "We have the best ground game...in political history. Joe Biden has none."

Majority of voters say Biden won second debate, poll finds .
Sixty-five percent of voters said the candidates were mostly respectful of each other's time, as opposed to 10% who said that after the first debate.Fifty-four percent of voters who watched the Thursday debate said Biden performed the best, while 39% said that Trump did. Eight percent of voters who watched weren’t sure or had no opinion on who did best.

usr: 1
This is interesting!