•   
  •   
  •   

Politics Battleground Tracker: Biden leads in Wisconsin, has edge in Arizona

18:06  18 october  2020
18:06  18 october  2020 Source:   cbsnews.com

Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally, president trails on pandemic trust, in new poll

  Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally, president trails on pandemic trust, in new poll Biden's 12-point lead in Sunday's ABC News/Washington Post poll was the latest in a series of surveys to find the president down by double digits.The poll, conducted Oct. 6-9, has Biden up 53%-41% against Trump among registered voters and 54%-42% among likely voters.

CBS News Elections and Surveys Director Anthony Salvanto has more on the 2020 horserace and the latest Battleground Tracker poll.

CBS News elections and surveys director Anthony Salvanto has more on the 2020 race for the White House and the latest Battleground Tracker poll. Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are

From Wisconsin to Arizona, as in much of the country, these final weeks of the campaign look to be about who actually votes, because voters say they've made their choices, and many have made it official. Mail ballot returns are pouring in, and almost all remaining voters say they're locked into their decisions anyway.

Joe Biden wearing a suit and tie: TOPSHOT-COMBO-US-VOTE-BIDEN-TRUMP © JIM WATSON,BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images TOPSHOT-COMBO-US-VOTE-BIDEN-TRUMP

The coronavirus outbreak continues to shape the election in these states. Wisconsin is now going through another rise in cases, and Arizona was hard-hit earlier this year. It's particularly related to the views of those voting for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who note it as a big reason they're picking him over President Trump and believe he would handle the outbreak better. Biden is cutting into the president's 2016 support levels with key groups like seniors, men and White, non-college voters, helping to push him to a 5-point lead in Wisconsin, and a 3-point lead in Arizona.

Read the full transcript of Joe Biden's ABC News town hall

  Read the full transcript of Joe Biden's ABC News town hall Read the full transcript of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's ABC News town hall, Thursday at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. © Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden and moderator George Stephanopoulos participate in an ABC News town hall event at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Oct. 15, 2020. Please note: This is a rush transcript that may not be in its final form, and may be updated.

Battleground Tracker : Biden gains edge in Arizona , leads big in Minnesota. In Wisconsin , Trump has actually lost more ground among White, non-college voters than among White college graduates, which is a key reason the state currently leans Democratic.

Battleground Tracker : Biden gains edge in Arizona , leads big in Minnesota. Biden is doing better in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania than Democrats did in 2016 with White men and White women. In Pennsylvania, he's doing better than Hillary Clinton among White voters with a college degree — he

Another way the coronavirus outbreak is shaping this election is the manner in which people are voting. In Wisconsin, many voters are switching over to mail ballots, and those doing so cite coronavirus concerns as the main reason.

Biden leads with those who've voted already in these critical states, setting up what could be an Election Day make-or-break turnout moment for the president and his supporters.

text © Provided by CBS News

Arizona and Wisconsin have older electorates who tend to vote Republican, and Mr. Trump is underperforming with them in Arizona relative to 2016 as Biden cuts into his margins. Mr. Trump's lead among seniors there is half of what it was in 2016. (Margins are an important metric when looking at support in various groups: in some cases, whether a candidate "wins" a group is less important than how much he or she wins or loses it by.)

The week in polls: Trump erases Biden's bounce in Florida, Biden gains in Georgia

  The week in polls: Trump erases Biden's bounce in Florida, Biden gains in Georgia In the Senate, a poll found Doug Jones may not be doomed after all. And another found Lindsey Graham's race may not be as tight as believed.They have found Biden still holding a commanding lead nationally (though down slightly from last week) and leading in 10 of 12 swing states. But Trump regained a slight polling average lead in Ohio and ate a big chunk out of Biden's leads in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Trump also erased Biden's gains in Florida from last week, which some Democrats had hoped signaled their nominee was pulling away in the crucial Sunshine State.

Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, but Biden leads in polls. Former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump in the core battleground states of Arizona , Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin , according to survey.

Battleground Tracker : Trump and Biden even in Ohio, as Biden leads in PA. CBS News elections and surveys director Anthony Salvanto has more on the 2020 race for the White House and the latest Battleground Tracker poll.

chart © Provided by CBS News chart, waterfall chart © Provided by CBS News

One reason: Almost half of Arizona seniors say Mr. Trump's response to the outbreak has put seniors and older voters at risk for coronavirus, and 95% of seniors who feel that way are backing Biden.

  Battleground Tracker: Biden leads in Wisconsin, has edge in Arizona © Provided by CBS News

Seniors are roughly split in their support in Wisconsin, as they were four years ago.

After being hit hard by the virus over the summer, most Arizona voters now think efforts to contain the outbreak are going well, but the damage to the president's political fortunes may have been done. More voters say his administration has hurt rather than helped their state's efforts to contain the outbreak. This is the case in Wisconsin too, where they are experiencing thousands of new cases a day. Nine in 10 Biden voters say the coronavirus outbreak is a big factor in their decision to vote for him.

table © Provided by CBS News

And Biden has an advantage over Mr. Trump with voters on how each of the candidates handle himself personally. This may not matter to most of the president's supporters, as relatively few cite the way Mr. Trump handles himself personally as a big reason they are backing him.

Fact-checking Trump's massively dishonest weekend: The President made at least 66 separate false or misleading claims in three days

  Fact-checking Trump's massively dishonest weekend: The President made at least 66 separate false or misleading claims in three days President Donald Trump's dishonesty is getting worse. © Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images US President Donald Trump gestures during a rally at Southern Wisconsin Regional Airport in Janesville, Wisconsin on October 17, 2020. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP) (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) Trump has been reliably deceptive for his entire presidency, filling his speeches and tweets with lies and other false statements.

Battleground Tracker : Florida race tightens, Trump has edge in Texas. Battleground Tracker : Biden gains edge in Arizona , leads big in Minnesota. Biden currently has a double-digit leads among white women with a college degree in these states — a group Clinton lost to Mr. Trump in Ohio and

Ed O'Keefe has the latest. With President Trump in the White House and ailing, the other three candidates at the top of the ticket campaigned in Arizona , now considered a toss-up in our CBS News battleground tracker poll.

timeline © Provided by CBS News

In Wisconsin, a big part of Mr. Trump's winning coalition last time was White voters without college degrees. He still leads with this group, but Biden has cut into that margin. Mr. Trump's vote share with this group is down 10 points from 2016.

chart © Provided by CBS News

A majority of these voters, like Wisconsin voters overall, say the president is most concerned about the wealthy and elite, rather than the middle class or poor. Relatively fewer say the same of Biden. Those who say Mr. Trump is most concerned with the wealthy and elite are not voting for him.

table © Provided by CBS News

Mr. Trump has lost ground with White men in Wisconsin. They backed him by more than 20 points four year ago, but he has just a seven-point advantage now. White, non-college-educated men have gone from supporting the president by over 40 points in 2016 to just 15 points as of today. While Mr. Trump still leads among this group, the decrease in his margin is a major reason the state now leans Democratic.

But don't think these contests are over — these aren't exactly huge statewide margins separating the candidates. Lower-turnout scenarios would move Arizona back toward even and Wisconsin, too. Democrats may have the lead in early returned ballots in Wisconsin so far, but Mr. Trump's voters still mostly plan to vote in person on Election Day.

Kristen Welker: 5 things to know about the moderator of Thursday's presidential debate

  Kristen Welker: 5 things to know about the moderator of Thursday's presidential debate Kristen Welker has been criticized by President Trump as "terrible & unfair." Get to know the White House correspondent ahead of the last debate.The NBC News White House correspondent and "Weekend Today" co-anchor will moderate the debate at Belmont University in Nashville (9 EDT/6 PDT). The second presidential debate was axed after Trump declined to participate virtually, following his COVID-19 diagnosis. Instead, he and Biden held dueling town halls , and the former vice president beat Trump in the Nielsen ratings.

Biden leads Trump by 11 points among registered voters on which candidate would do a better job Despite Biden 's lead in the horse race and his advantage in handling the coronavirus, Trump Among all Arizona voters in the poll, 41 percent have a favorable view of Trump, while 57 percent have an

CBS News elections and surveys director Anthony Salvanto joins Margaret Brennan with a new Battleground Tracker poll that shows Elizabeth Warren rising as

For Trump voters, the virus is not as much of a factor in their support for him. It's the economy that ranks as the biggest factor for them and the top reason they are not backing Biden. In Arizona, where evaluations of the state's economy have grown more positive, the president has a three-point edge over Biden on who would better handle the economy. But in Wisconsin — where the economic outlook is more negative than positive — Biden has pulled within one point of Mr. Trump on handling this issue.

chart, bar chart © Provided by CBS News text © Provided by CBS News

We have been asking voters if their rationale is mainly voting for their candidate or against the other one. Throughout the summer and fall, a large portion of Biden's voters have been mainly against Mr. Trump, and that's increasingly true in Arizona — up to 55% of Biden's voters feel this way now, compared to 47% in September.

graphical user interface, text, application © Provided by CBS News graphical user interface, text, application © Provided by CBS News

Women voters are helping Biden in Arizona. Biden has expanded on Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin with women, and he is being boosted by White women with college degrees, as we've seen in other battleground states. White college-educated women went narrowly for Mr. Trump here in 2016 over Clinton, but they are backing Biden now. A large majority of these voters dislike the way Mr. Trump handles himself personally. White college-educated women backing Biden cite the way Mr. Trump handles himself personally as a big factor in their decision not to vote for the president.

Kristen Welker praised for ‘masterclass’ debate moderation, Chris Wallace is ‘jealous’

  Kristen Welker praised for ‘masterclass’ debate moderation, Chris Wallace is ‘jealous’ After Fox News' Chris Wallace failed to maintain order during the first presidential debate, NBC News' Kristen Welker earned solid marks Thursday.After Fox News' Chris Wallace failed to maintain order during the first presidential debate between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, Welker was applauded for Thursday's controlled exchange.

Finally, we see a little bit of how the campaigns' approaches are resonating, mostly to Biden's advantage: Biden does better among voters looking for politics to be "calm" and "normal" for the next four years, while Mr. Trump does better among the (far fewer) who want things "exciting" and "shaken up."

table © Provided by CBS News

Both camps see the stakes of this election as very high. In yet another sign of how durable views may be, each side is worried about what happens to the country if the other party wins. Those most motivated to vote their candidates — and those firmest in their support — are the ones most likely to have these fears.

graphical user interface, text, application © Provided by CBS News graphical user interface, text, application © Provided by CBS News

Trump voters seem to see more common ground with Biden voters than vice versa. Three in four Biden voters see their differences with Trump voters as being not just about politics, but also that Trump voters are different kinds of people than they are. Roughly half of Trump voters feel this way about Biden voters. About half think that while their politics differ, they are otherwise alike.

And with a record number of voters casting ballots by mail this year, it may take longer in some states to count votes. A majority of voters in each of these states do not expect to know the winner of the presidential election on election night. Voters across partisan lines share this view.

table, timeline © Provided by CBS News

These surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between October 13-16, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,087 registered voters in Arizona and 1,124 in Wisconsin. Margins of error for likely voters are ±4.1 points in Arizona and ±3.5 points in Wisconsin.

Toplines:

Wisconsin

Arizona

The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them .
With just eight days to go to Election Day, both national polls and swing state surveys make it clear the race between Trump and Biden is tightening.President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.

usr: 4
This is interesting!