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Politics Democrats Odds-On Favorites to Win Senate, Say Bookmakers

18:17  22 october  2020
18:17  22 october  2020 Source:   newsweek.com

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The Democrats are odds-on favorites to win the Senate, according to a political betting comparison site.

a group of people walking in front of a building: A jogger runs as fog blankets the United States Capitol building on October 22, 2020 in Washington, DC. There are 35 seats up for grabs in the Senate in the 2020 election—23 of those belong to the Republicans. © Samuel Corum/Getty Images A jogger runs as fog blankets the United States Capitol building on October 22, 2020 in Washington, DC. There are 35 seats up for grabs in the Senate in the 2020 election—23 of those belong to the Republicans.

Joe Biden's party has odds of 4-6 of retaking the upper chamber, suggesting a 60 percent chance, according to Oddschecker.

The GOP's price to retain control of the Senate is 2-1 (suggesting a 33.33 percent chance) while a tie is 6-1 (14.29 percent chance).

There are 35 seats up for grabs in the Senate in the 2020 election—23 of those belong to the Republicans.

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A recent forecast by the Cook Political Report found nine GOP senators were at risk of losing re-election with Martha McSally of Arizona and Cory Gardner of Colorado said to be most at risk.

As it currently stands, Republicans enjoy a majority in the Senate with 53 seats to the Democrats' 45. Independent senators, who caucus with Democrats, occupy the two remaining seats.

Democrats could secure a majority this time around if they are able to take at least three additional seats while defending the 12 seats they have up for grabs.

Separate betting data from UK bookmaker Betfair showed a tighter race for the Senate.

The Betfair Exchange gave the Republican party the longest odds, at 5-2 of securing a 2020 Senate majority (an implied probability of 28 percent).

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An even split in the upper chamber has odds of 19-10 (34 percent chance) while a majority for the Democrats comes in at 8-5 (39 percent).

That compares less favorably for the Democrats than at this stage in the contest in 2016.

Four years ago, the Democrats were odds-on favorites with 20-21 (an implied chance of 51 percent) to take control of the Senate, with less than two weeks to go until Election Day.

The GOP had odds of 3-1 (a 25 percent chance) and no majority was on 14-5 (26 percent) at this point in the 2016 Senate race.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "While on this day in 2016, the Democrats looked set for the historic double of a Senate majority and the White House according to Betfair Exchange odds, those dreams were shattered over the following weeks, as the Republicans made stunning comebacks in both the Senate and Presidential elections.

"This time round in 2020, the odds still suggest a Democratic White House is on the cards, with Joe Biden the 8-15 favorite to defeat Donald Trump, but punters can't decide which way the Senate will go, with the Democrats only narrowly shading favoritism, and the distinct possibility of neither party having a majority also on the cards."

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Women donors emerge as new power brokers in 2020 election as Democrats look to flip the Senate .
Record-high campaign contributions from women helped Democrats take the House in 2018 and now women have their sights set on the Senate. Your browser does not support this video In the 15 most competitive Senate races, an average 43% of the large-dollar donors to Democratic candidates are women compared to 28% of donors to Republicans, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. © Nam Y. Huh, AP Lindsey Schwartz wears a mask with a message as she holds a sign during the Women's March in downtown Chicago, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2020.

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