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Politics One Week From Election, What Trump vs Biden Forecasts Are Saying

12:06  27 october  2020
12:06  27 october  2020 Source:   newsweek.com

The week in polls: Trump erases Biden's bounce in Florida, Biden gains in Georgia

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The presidential election is just one week away and most national polling shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a strong lead over President Donald Trump ahead of November 3.

Donald Trump in a suit and tie: Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden answers a question as President Donald Trump listens during the second and final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the election on November 3. There's just one week before the presidential election. © Morry Gash-Pool/Getty Images Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden answers a question as President Donald Trump listens during the second and final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the election on November 3. There's just one week before the presidential election.

More than 60 million ballots have reportedly been cast already and many states have broken records for early voting. There is speculation that 2020 could see the highest turnout since 1908, with 65 percent of eligible voters expected to take part—that is around 150 million votes.

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Mr Trump and Mr Biden were supposed to go head-to-head in three debates, but Thursday's event was the second and final meeting between the pair before election day on November 3. Mr Trump refused to participate in the second event, planned for October 15, after it was announced the event

The outcome of the election will likely be decided in crucial swing states, where Trump secured the White House in 2016. Though the race is narrower in some of these states, Biden is still ahead in polling for several states that Trump won last time around.

Nationally, Biden leads Trump by 9.4 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker. This is down from a high of 10.7 on October 19.

The RealClearPolitics' polling average has Biden ahead 7.8 percent. RCP showed the Democrat leading by 10.3 percent on October 11.

But nationwide poll averages do not tell the whole story. Trump won the electoral college vote in 2016 with very narrow victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states were formerly considered part of the Democratic "Blue Wall."

Kristen Welker: 5 things to know about the moderator of Thursday's presidential debate

  Kristen Welker: 5 things to know about the moderator of Thursday's presidential debate Kristen Welker has been criticized by President Trump as "terrible & unfair." Get to know the White House correspondent ahead of the last debate.The NBC News White House correspondent and "Weekend Today" co-anchor will moderate the debate at Belmont University in Nashville (9 EDT/6 PDT). The second presidential debate was axed after Trump declined to participate virtually, following his COVID-19 diagnosis. Instead, he and Biden held dueling town halls , and the former vice president beat Trump in the Nielsen ratings.

Mr. Trump on Monday said it had been “a very nice conversation,” in which Mr. Biden had shared a number of policy recommendations for dealing Mr. Biden ’s account was not much richer, and in a CNN interview on Tuesday night he indicated that he and Mr. Trump had agreed to keep most details

Biden 's lead is four times the size of Hillary Clinton’s national advantage over Trump at this point in 2016, underscoring how hard it will be for the president In comparison, a YouGov poll conducted one week before the 2016 election showed Clinton leading Trump by 3 percentage points among likely

In these states, FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of polls suggests Biden holds a lead seven days before the election: up 8.3 percent in Michigan, 5.1 percent in Pennsylvania and 7.1 percent in Wisconsin.

Florida is another key swing state that many consider to be a must-win for Trump. Yet the president is behind 2.3 percent there, according to polls on FiveThirtyEight. RCP also shows Biden ahead by 1.8 percent in the Sunshine State.

Some prominent election forecasters believe Biden will win the election. FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrat an 87 percent chance of victory compared to Trump's 12 percent.

Political scientist Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, also predicts Biden will win but notes that FiveThirtyEight's analysis is "much more complex."

In his Crystal Ball newsletter, Sabato has suggested that Biden could win more than 300 electoral college votes and Trump's tally could dip below 200. The last time this happened was in 2008, when President Barack Obama won 365 electoral college votes, compared to Senator John McCain's 173.

Kristen Welker praised for ‘masterclass’ debate moderation, Chris Wallace is ‘jealous’

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View Trump and Biden head-to-head polling. Biden has generally ignored those kinds of wild accusations, and when asked Sunday in Wilmington Republican and Democratic strategists pointed out in interviews this week that the debates are unique this year because Trump is such a polarizing

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The non-partisan Cook Political Report predicted on September 29 that Biden will win the race for the White House by securing at least 290 electoral college votes. Its forecast gave Trump just 163 solid electoral college votes.

The RealClearPolitics electoral college map shows Biden leading but not having currently secured enough votes to win election, while the Economist newspaper gives Biden a 95 percent chance of winning the election, with between 250 and 421 electoral college votes.

The results may not be fully known on election night, however, because so many mail-in ballots have been cast this year. It could be a while before the final outcome is clear.

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The final week in polls: Trump eats into Biden's leads in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania .
The final polls show the race between Trump and Biden has tightened since mid-October, both nationally and in the critical battleground states.Biden's lead in USA TODAY's average of averages, which is based on data from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, reached double-digits on Oct. 12, but has since fallen back to a 7.5-percentage point lead. That leaves him back roughly in the same position USA TODAY found him in its first poll roundup on Sept. 28, when his polling average lead over Trump was 7.2 points.

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