Politics Trump's job rating could tell us a lot about his ballot performance
Online voting: Why it's not secure, but some people may choose it anyway
There are big risks, so using the internet to cast a ballot only makes sense for a small group of voters."My ballot was received on the same day that I sent it via email," Burns said.
WASHINGTON — President Trump’s ballot number in our newis 47 percent — versus 51 percent for Joe Biden (a result that’s within the poll’s margin of error).
Trump’s job-approval rating in the battleground is also 47 percent, per the poll.
And that brings up something important to watch on Election Night: There’s historically been a direct correlation between a sitting president’s job rating and his ballot position.
- In 1984, Gallup’s national October poll had Ronald Reagan’s job rating at 58 percent; he got 58.8 percent of the vote in that election.
- In 1992, the late October national NBC/WSJ poll had George H.W. Bush’s rating at 36 percent; he got 37.4 percent of the vote.
- In 1996, the October NBC/WSJ poll had Bill Clinton’s approval at 56 percent; he got 49.2 percent in that three-way race.
- In 2004, the late October NBC/WSJ poll had George W. Bush’s approval at 49 percent; he got 50.7 percent of the vote.
- And in 2012, the October NBC/WSJ poll had Barack Obama’s approval at 49 percent; he got 51.1 percent of the vote.
President Trump? His job rating in our most recent national NBC/WSJ poll was 44 percent.
Trump casts a 'very secure vote' for himself in Florida: 2020 election updates
"I voted for a guy named Trump," the president said.Trump cast his ballot at the West Palm Beach library near his private Mar-a-Lago club. The president told reporters after leaving the library it was "an honor" to be voting and that he cast a "very secure vote.
So in a mostly two-way presidential election — with an expected minimal third-party vote — the winning percentage in battleground states will likely be 49 percent or higher.
Which means in states like Florida and elsewhere, Trump will need to overperform his current job rating to win.
Data Download: The numbers you need to know today
8.933,176: The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials. (That’s 73,812more than yesterday morning.)
228,860: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far. (That’s 908 more than yesterday morning.)
139.51 million: The number of coronavirus tests that have been administered in the United States so far, according to researchers at
The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them
With just eight days to go to Election Day, both national polls and swing state surveys make it clear the race between Trump and Biden is tightening.President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.
45,045: The number of people currently hospitalized for Covid-19 in the U.S.,
Can you change your vote? Trump thinks people should
President Donald Trump, arguing he's gained since the last debate, on Tuesday encouraged voters who have already voted absentee to look into changing their votes. © Leah Millis/Reuters President Donald Trump holds a campaign event in Lititz, Pennsylvania, Oct. 26, 2020. "Strongly Trending (Google) since immediately after the second debate is CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE? This refers changing it to me. The answer in most states is YES. Go do it. Most important Election of your life!" he tweeted Tuesday morning.
72,151,154: The number of people who have voted early, either by mail or in person, according to NBC and TargetSmart.
943 points: The drop in theamid a market selloff yesterday.
52 percent to 46 percent: Trump’s edge with Latinos in Florida,
53 percent to 46 percent: Biden’s edge with seniors in the Sunshine State, according to the same poll.
12 points: Biden’s national lead, according to a
On the campaign trail today
Today the action moves to Florida where Joe Biden stumps in Coconut Creek (which is north of Miami) and Tampa. President Trump also hits Tampa before going to Fayetteville, N.C. Mike Pence is in Iowa and Nevada. And Kamala Harris participates in a livestream with Bernie Sanders.
NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard reports from Arizona on Wednesday night:
Hillary Clinton joins Electoral College 4 years after it cost her the presidency: 'Pretty sure I'll get to vote for Joe'
Hillary Clinton, the former Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, is one of 29 Democratic electors for New York state in 2020.The Electoral College is comprised of 538 delegates: People who cast the votes that formally elect the president. It's a system that tends to give smaller states a larger voice in the process of electing the president, and one that Clinton has publicly opposed in the past.
Since Democrats selected Joe Biden as their presumptive nominee in the spring, Biden has held a consistent advantage in polling in Arizona. But more troubling for Trump is the demographics that have flipped against him: Independent voters, suburban voters and seniors.
In the state where Barry Goldwater birthed modern-day conservatism into the GOP and John McCain held reign as the state’s western, independent voice, Arizona could be the state that clinches a Biden victory and rejects the Republican Party under the helm of Trump.
In mid-October, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon called her shot: "I know we're going to win Arizona.”
And that’s why the president’s final-week efforts today are notable: He is visiting rural Arizona, which makes up less than one-quarter of the state’s population. His first stop [yesterday] afternoon was in Bullhead City, a community in Mohave County, which voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a 52 percent margin.
But Clinton lost Arizona by just 3.5 percent. And now, Democrats hold a 75,000 early ballot advantage over the GOP less than a week before Election Day.
Millions of Americans are voting for the first time this year, and it's not just young people
This year's election is seeing a surge in first-time voters. And it's not just young people.Last week, the Indiana resident voted for the first time.
Tweet of the day
Ad Watch from Ben Kamisar
Today’s Ad Watch takes a look at the closing messages to Black voters from the two presidential campaigns.
In a— which started running Wednesday in key swing states like Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio — the Democrat looks directly into the camera to say “Black lives matter, period. I’m not afraid to say it.” He then goes on to describe how he’d tackle systemic racism in America, outlining his plans on things like health care, minority business investment and criminal justice reform.
Trump dropped a spot of his ownon Tuesday, which has aired in states like Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Republican’s mashes up Biden’s controversial comments during the decades-old crime bill debates before a narrator concludes: “We know who Joe Biden is talking about, us. Don’t let him become president.” Outside of the “stand-by-your-ad” line and one photo of Trump with a racially diverse group, there’s no mention of the president.
These two closing ads have starkly different messages: Biden is asking Black voters to vote for him; Trump is asking Black voters not to vote for Biden.
The Lid: Radar detector
Don’t miss the pod from yesterday, when we looked atNBC is doing to ensure that we’re catching under-the-radar voters.
Survey: Nearly 2 out of 3 voters will cast their ballots early in-person or by mail, not on Election Day
The survey showed a significant partisan divide, too. Those supporting Biden are more likely to say they plan to vote by mail than those who support Trump.When combining those who are voting by mail (42%) and those who voting early in-person (26%), nearly 2 in 3 voters will be casting their ballot ahead of Election Day, according to a survey from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
The Supreme Courtthe counting of mail ballots that arrive up to six days after Election Day in North Carolina. (The court on a similar issue in Pennsylvania in another victory for Democrats.)
Here’sare operating in two different realities in Arizona.
Former DHS official Miles Tayloras “Anonymous.”
The New York Times looks at the effect thatcould have on the timeline of counting ballots.
The presidentembattled incumbent Martha McSally many favors at his rally last night.
Could early voters in Houstonfor Biden in Texas?
Three peopleafter what’s being described as a terrorist attack in Nice, France.
LeBron James aims to make a difference in election. How's it going? .
LeBron James has won four NBA titles but now he is trying to make a difference in this year's election with his group called "More Than a Vote."He has won four NBA championships, started his own elementary school, built a business empire and, now, is taking on the 2020 election.