Politics Trump's chances hinge on a polling screw-up way worse than 2016

11:15  30 october  2020
11:15  30 october  2020 Source:   politico.com

USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll: Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 7 points in pivotal Pennsylvania

  USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll: Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 7 points in pivotal Pennsylvania A majority of likely Pennsylvania voters also said they do not support adding justices to the Supreme Court. "You start creating more justices to get the opinions you want," he said. "It's almost like 'well I gotta win and I'm just gonna create new facts.' " But Laws said that she supports adding justices to the Supreme Court, adding that it shouldn't be called court packing. "I believe it should be called court evening," Laws said. She said that she believes that the "minority shouldn't be ruling the majority," adding that the "the majority of the country is pro choice.

Biden leading national presidential polls . National polls are a good guide as to how popular a In 2016 , for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than That' s one of the reasons why some political analysts rate his chances of re-election as low as things

Keep up with Election 2020. Will Trump ’ s struggles translate to Biden’s gains? In a Morning Call poll conducted by the widely respected Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and released last If the election does hinge on Pennsylvania, it may mean an agonizing wait before a winner is declared.

President Donald Trump still has a path to a second term. But it would take a polling debacle that would make 2016 look like a banner year.

a person standing in front of a crowd: President Donald Trump gives a campaign speech outside of Raymond James Stadium on Oct. 29, 2020, in Tampa, Fla. © Octavio Jones/Getty Images President Donald Trump gives a campaign speech outside of Raymond James Stadium on Oct. 29, 2020, in Tampa, Fla.

According to a series of battleground state polls conducted and released in the week following the last Trump-Biden debate, the president’s chances of winning a second term now require winning states where he still trails with only days to go until voting concludes.

In most of the core swing states, Joe Biden has maintained a stable — though not overwhelming — lead over Trump in polls over the past few months, continuing into the final week of the election. Some of the state polling averages have tightened slightly since the last debate, though Biden remains consistently ahead. In three live-interview polls of Florida all released on Thursday, Biden led Trump by between 3 and 5 points.

Donald Trump made many promises in 2016 and early in his term. Which has he kept and what is he still working on?

  Donald Trump made many promises in 2016 and early in his term. Which has he kept and what is he still working on? Trump has kept a number of pledges, including tax cuts and conservative judges. But not on others such as bringing back coal and replacing Obamacare."Unlike so many who came before me, I keep my promises," Trump said during his State of the Union speech this year.

But if Mr. Trump and this era are unique, then 2020 might hinge on turnout: In a polarized environment with few persuadable voters left, little else would matter. This would help if the online polls were consistently better for Mr. Trump than the live-interview polls , as they have been for most of his term.

Mr. Trump ’ s team of actual political strategists is small, despite the large staff employed by his campaign, and his campaign manager only recently And no modern president may perform better with a foil or worse when measured in his own right than Mr. Trump . Nonetheless, there have been

In some of the potentially decisive states, like Pennsylvania, the polls would have to be wrong to a significant greater — greater than the errors in 2016 — for Trump to win. The latest polling averages show Biden with a 5-point lead.

It’s not impossible, but you have to squint to see how Biden’s lead won’t hold up on Election Day. Even signs that were more apparent four years ago — whether in real-time or in retrospect — are more ambiguous this year.

In 2016, the larger-than-usual share of voters who said, even in the late stages of the campaign, that they were undecided or preferred a third-party candidate was a flashing warning light that Hillary Clinton’s lead was not secure. Clinton was not well-liked, even if she was running against a historically disliked opponent. And Trump was garnering momentum in the closing two weeks of the race.

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Mr. Trump didn’t just lose support to the undecided column; Mr. Biden ticked up to an average of 37 The Trump campaign has not resolved on a central attack on Mr. Biden. Perhaps as a result In the final national polls of registered voters in 2016 , Mr. Trump trailed by around an average of five points.

Mr. Trump ’ s volcanic performance appeared to be the gambit of a president seeking to tarnish his opponent by any means available, unbounded by norms of accuracy and decorum and unguided by a calculated sense of how to sway the electorate or assuage voters’ reservations about his leadership.

None of those is happening this year: There are generally fewer undecideds in the polls. Biden is viewed favorably by a narrow majority of voters in the country. And surveys conducted since the debate last week have not showed as large of an uptick for Trump.

“The thought that maybe things would tighten in the last week doesn’t appear to be happening,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute of Public Opinion, which released a poll with NBC News on Thursday showing Biden ahead by 4 points in Florida. “I think, if anything, things are holding for Biden, or maybe even providing him an opportunity to go into some states” outside of the core battlefield.

But there are some red flags about the polls, even if it’s not clear how they would affect the outcome. More voters than in previous elections are refusing to tell pollsters for whom they’re voting — or have voted, in the case of the tens of millions of Americans who have already cast their ballots.

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Trump has always been in his element campaigning rather than governing. He continued to hold rallies even after winning the 2016 election, throwing out The president evidently revels in the romantic self-image of an old-fashioned insurgent barnstorming small towns, standing on a soapbox, spinning a

But it’s actually much worse than that. It is imposing an immediate chilling effect on numerous civil servants If he becomes president, Joe Biden should repeal Trump ’ s executive order immediately, as part of With less than a week to go, the president has to hope for a major polling error in his favor

Video: How to determine if polling data is trustworthy (CNBC)

And in the closing days, that phenomenon is only increasing. Charles Franklin, who runs the Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin, told National Review Online that his surveys show increasing numbers of respondents who refused to disclose their vote choice in his polls.

Similarly, Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told POLITICO Thursday that the number of voters refusing to name their candidate “has ticked up.”

But both men said that won’t necessarily redound to Trump’s benefit. Franklin told National Review that in the Wisconsin poll he released Wednesday — Biden had a 5-point lead in the critical battleground state — that those who refused to disclose their vote preference were split evenly between those who had a favorable opinion of Biden, those who had a favorable opinion of Trump and those who had either favorable or unfavorable opinions of both men.

Murray has crunched the numbers in his survey, looking at those who refused to answer by measurements such as party registration and race. He found that it was “slightly biased toward Democrats. Meaning, a slight indicator of a ‘shy Biden’ vote, if anything. Rather than a ‘shy Trump’ vote, it seems like it could be more of a ‘shy Biden’ vote.”

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  USPS Service blows deadline to check for missing ballots. About 300,000 can't be traced The window is closing fast. The deadline for mail-in ballots either ends as the polls close tonight or has already passed in 29 states. Reports of undelivered ballots cropped up over the weekend, including in Miami-Dade County Florida. A sweep of the Princetown Post Office in Miami found 62 ballots. Timely delivery of the ballots has been a concern in the past, and voting rights activists worry the loss of ballots, especially in battleground states, could alter the results of the 2020 presidential election.

For Trump finding a way to regain the momentum becoming urgent. Donald Trump ’ s chances of winning presidential election narrowing as polls continue to swing Hillary Clinton’s way . Pence was widely seen as the winner in the V-P debate, but it may hardly matter.

Polls show Americans trust Biden more than Trump to contain the virus and record numbers of new US Covid-19 cases in recent days have given Biden repeated opportunities to remind voters of the Trump administration' s mismanagement of the pandemic. Biden also has used the pandemic to

Then there are Biden’s image ratings, which compare favorably with Trump’s — and Clinton’s in 2016. According to a RealClearPolitics average, Biden’s net-favorable rating is positive-6 points, meaning his average favorable rating is 6 points higher than his average unfavorable rating.

Trump’s net-favorability? Minus-13 points. In the 2016 exit poll, Clinton’s net-favorable rating was minus-12 points, while Trump's was minus-22.

Of the six core battleground states — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the FiveThirtyEight polling average is closer now than it was a week ago in four of them, but has only slightly tightened in each of Arizona (0.7 points closer), Florida (1.6 points), North Carolina (0.9 points) and Pennsylvania (1.2 points closer). Biden still leads by at least 2 points in each state.

The polling average in Michigan is unchanged, and Biden’s lead has grown by nearly 2 points in Wisconsin — mostly thanks to an ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows Biden with a much larger lead than other surveys.

That some people overlooked the warning signs in 2016 wasn't the only problem with the polls. The national polls were mostly accurate, but some state polls routinely understated Trump's support four years ago. Pollsters say many of those issues have been addressed, and national outlets have commissioned far more expensive, high-quality surveys at the state level than in 2016.

While Trump hasn’t closed enough of the gap coming out of the final debate last week, another comeback Electoral College victory by the Republican president would be the latest black mark for the polling industry. And pollsters know they’re on the hot seat over the next five days and beyond, as the votes are counted.

“One thing you know about polling for elections is there is accountability,” said Miringoff, the Marist pollster.

“There’s always that, ‘Yeah, but 2016’ in the back of everybody’s minds. But I think this is a very different election. Trump is now the incumbent. It’s a referendum on him. He has not been able to make it a choice.”

Fact check: False claim that viral video shows Trump ballots being burned .
Virginia Beach officials say a viral video purporting to show ballots cast for President Donald Trump being burned actually shows sample ballots.The video, which has been viewed over 400,000 times on Instagram, purportedly shows a man putting "about 80" alleged pro-Trump ballots in a plastic bag and covering them with flammable liquid before setting them on fire.

usr: 0
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