Politics Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough?

21:05 30 october 2020

21:05 30 october 2020 Source: usatoday.com

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Election Day is four days away, and more than half the number of Americans who voted in 2016 have already cast their ballots, as polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a large national lead over President Donald Trump, along with a smaller advantage in several key states.

The deadline for early voting ends Friday in several states where the race is tight, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Texas – and on Saturday in the key states of Florida and North Carolina. Though early turnout appears to favor Democrats in many states, Republicans are gaining ground quickly in Florida and other early voting states.

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As the race enters the home stretch, the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on data from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, finds Biden up 8.3 percentage points over Trump nationally. That is nearly a full point higher than Biden was at the end of September but 2 points lower than the 10.1-point edge he held in mid-October.

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The polls were also shifting in Trump's favor ahead of his upset win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but that trend was more pronounced and her lead was not as big as Biden's heading into the election. Four days before Election Day that year, Clinton's average lead was about 2.1 percentage points.

If the states end up breaking according to their current polling averages, and assuming the non-swing states go the way they did in 2016, Biden would win decisively in the Electoral College, even if he lost Ohio, which is tied. But Biden's polling average advantage is greater than 5 points in just four of twelve swing states and the race will hinge on what happens in the races where Biden's margin is thin enough to leave the candidates in a virtual dead heat.

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a sign on the grass: Trump-Pence and Biden-Harris signs are displayed outside The Coral Gables Branch Library in Miami, Florida, Oct. 27, 2020.

Last week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

National average

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.7%, Trump 43.4% (Biden +8.3)

On Monday: Biden 51.4%, Trump 42.9% (Biden +8.6)

Net change: Trump +0.3

RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 43.5%
FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.0%, Trump 43.2%

Four days before 2016 election: Clinton +2.1

Swing state averages

Arizona: Biden +1.4

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 46.4%

Monday: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.1% (Biden +2.7)

Net change: Trump +1.3

Florida: Biden +1.7

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 46.9%

Monday: Biden 48.9%, Trump 47.0% (Biden +1.9)

Net change: Trump +0.2

Georgia: Biden +1.0

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.0%, Trump 47.0%

Monday: Biden 47.6%, Trump 47.1% (Biden +0.5)

The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

With just eight days to go to Election Day, both national polls and swing state surveys make it clear the race between Trump and Biden is tightening.President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.

Net change: Biden +0.5

Iowa: Biden +0.6

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.2%, Trump 46.6%

Monday: Biden 47.4%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +1.1)

Net change: Trump +0.5

Michigan: Biden +7.3

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 43.1%

Monday: Biden 50.5%, Trump 42.7% (Biden +7.8)

Net change: Trump +0.5

Minnesota: Biden +6.4

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 42.7%

Monday: Biden 49.4%, Trump 42.3% (Biden +7.1)

Net change: Trump +0.7

Nevada: Biden +5.1

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.1%, Trump 44.0%

Monday: Biden 49.6%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +5.8)

Net change: Trump +0.7

North Carolina: Biden +1.3

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 47.3%

Monday: Biden 49.1%, Trump 47.2% (Biden +1.9)

Net change: Trump +0.6

Ohio: Tie

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.4%, Biden 46.4%

Monday: Trump 47.4%, Biden 46.4% (Trump +1.0)

Net change: Biden +1.0

Pennsylvania: Biden +4.7

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0, Trump 45.3%

Monday: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.6% (Biden +5.4)

Net change: Trump +0.7

Texas: Trump +1.8

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.3%

Monday: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.8% (Trump +1.7)

Net change: Trump +0.1

The Daily 202: If Trump wins, these are the 10 most likely explanations for how it happened

Biden acts like the election boils down to a Pennsylvania Senate race. Joe Biden leads President Trump by 10 points among registered voters, 52 percent to 42 percent, in the final national pre-election poll conducted by NBC and the Wall Street Journal. Majorities of Americans think the country is on the wrong track and disapprove of the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Wisconsin: Biden +7.9

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.1%, Trump 43.2%

Monday: Biden 50.1%, Trump 44.4% (Biden +5.7)

Net change: Biden +2.2

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Lines stretched for several blocks as New Yorkers lined up to vote at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan during the third day of early voting Oct. 27, 2020.
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Lane County Elections workers David Campbell, left, and Matt Eva remove ballots from the dropbox at the election offices on Charnelton Street on Oct. 26, 2020, in Eugene, Oregon. More than 40 percent of ballots have been returned by voters in Lane County.
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Lane County Elections worker Elaine Erwin prepares ballot envelopes before they are scanned for signatures on Oct. 26, 2020, in Eugene, Oregon. More than 40 percent of ballots have been returned by voters in Lane County.
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The Friends of Mt. Hope have placed plastic covers over Susan B. Anthony's headstone in Mt. Hope Cemetery in Rochester, NY as well as her sister's Mary Anthony's headstone. "I Voted Today" stickers on their headstones, Oct. 26, 2020 have been placed on them since early voting started Saturday. The covers are to protect the old headstones.
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A voter walks toward election officials who are wearing face shields, mask and gloves at a Vote Center located at the Staples Center on the first weekend of early in-person voting on October 25, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. Voters in Los Angeles County are now able to vote in person at any Vote Center located within the county.
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A worker sanitizes a hand rail at a Vote Center located at the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion on the first weekend of early in-person voting on October 25, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. Voters in Los Angeles County are now able to vote in person at any Vote Center located within the county.
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People walk out of a Vote Center located at Compton College on the first weekend of early in-person voting on October 25, 2020 in Compton, California. Voters in Los Angeles County are now able to vote in person at any Vote Center located within the county.
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President Donald Trump walks with Wendy Sartory Link, Supervisor of Elections Palm Beach County, after casting his ballot for the presidential election, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020, in West Palm Beach, Fla.
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In an aerial view from a drone, residents wait in line for the opening of an early voting location at the Mid-Island Y Jewish Community Center on October 24, 2020 in Plainview, New York.
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People walk past chalk messages on the sidewalk outside Madison Square Garden on the first day of early voting, in New York City on October 24, 2020.
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Voters cast their ballot on the first day of early voting, at New York City's Madison Square Garden on October 24, 2020.
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An election worker moves returned ballots from a sorting machine behind at the King County Elections office Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020, in Renton, Wash. Election officials there said that 280,000 county ballots had already been returned, nearly 20% of the total sent to voters. Washington state is one of five states, along with Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, and Utah, that conduct elections entirely by mail-in voting.
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A woman casts her ballot at Tippecanoe Library on the first day of in-person early voting for the November 3rd elections in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on October 20, 2020.
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People wait in line to vote outside of an early voting site, Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020, in Miami Beach, Fla. Florida begins in-person early voting in much of the state Monday. With its 29 electoral votes, Florida is crucial to both candidates in order to win the White House.
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Emily Seibert inserts her ballot into an official ballot drop box Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020, in Salt Lake City.
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Poll workers receive Vote-by-Mail ballots in a drive thru system setup at the Election Headquarters polling station on Oct.19, 2020 in Doral, Florida. The poll workers placed the ballots into an official ballot drop box after receiving them. The early voting ends on Nov. 1. Voters are casting their ballots for presidential candidates President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
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Cook County jail detainees check in before casting their votes after a polling place was opened in the facility for early voting on Oct. 17, 2020 in Chicago, Ill. It is the first time pretrial detainees in the jail will get the opportunity for early voting in a general election.
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Early voters form a line along South Alston Ave. to cast their ballots at the South Regional Library polling location in Durham, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020.
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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., fills out his ballot in the 2020 general election at the Kentucky Exhibition Center in Louisville, Ky., Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020.
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Voters cast their vote at the Downtown West early voting location in Knoxville, Tenn., on the first day of early voting in Tennessee on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020.
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Voters wait in line to vote at the Downtown West early voting location in Knoxville, Tenn., on the first day of early voting in Tennessee on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020.
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A Miami-Dade election worker feeds ballots into a voting machines during an accuracy test at the Miami-Dade Election Department headquarters on Oct. 14, 2020 in Doral, Florida. The test was done as the county prepares for the November 3rd election where President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden are facing off against each other.
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Harris County election worker Romanique Tillman prepares mail-in ballots to be sent out to voters Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020, in Houston.
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People wait in line to fill out a ballot at the Southeast Library on Hickory Hollow Parkway on the first day of early voting on Wednesday, October 14, 2020, in Antioch, Tenn. Other states have reported big turnouts in early voting for the November presidential race.
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People vote at the Southeast Library on Hickory Hollow Parkway on the first day of early voting on Wednesday, October 14, 2020, in Antioch, Tenn.
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Several hundred voters line up before the polls open at the Williamson County Administrative Complex during the first day of early voting Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020 in Franklin, Tenn.
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Ted Sevilla helps putting a ballot in a dropbox on Oct. 13, 2020 in Phoenix. A steady stream of cars dropped off ballots.
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People wait in line to vote in Decatur, Ga., Monday, Oct. 12, 2020.
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Judi Katz wears a mask with A message as she waits in line to vote early at the Loop Super Site in downtown Chicago, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2020.
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Workers at the Miami-Dade County Election Department move racks of vote-by-mail ballots onto a U.S. Post Office truck to be delivered to voters on Oct. 1, 2020 in Doral, Fla. The Miami-Dade County Elections Department mailed out more than 530,000 vote-by-mail ballots to voters with a request on file for the November 3, 2020 General Election.
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Workers at the Miami-Dade County Election Department move racks of vote-by-mail ballots onto a U.S. Post Office truck to be delivered to voters on Oct. 1, 2020 in Doral, Fla.
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A Miami-Dade County Elections Department employee loads a cart of vote-by-mail ballots into a truck for transport to a local U.S. Postal Service office, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020, in Doral, Fla. The department mailed out more than 530,000 vote-by-mail ballots Thursday to voters that requested them for the Nov. 3 general election.
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A sample of a vote-by-mail ballot is shown at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020, in Doral, Fla.
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Miami-Dade County Elections Department employees organize voting equipment, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020, in Doral, Fla.
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Voting center Sept. 29, 2020, in Philadelphia.
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Susan Avery of Brattleboro, Vt., fills out the ballot she received in the mail on Sept. 28.
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Election worker Nancy Wilcox looks through mail-in ballot requests Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2020, at the Johnson County election office in Olathe, Kan. The office has processed more than 100,000 mail-in ballot requests so far as more people than normal are expected to vote by mail due to concerns about the new coronavirus.
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Election workers open and sort mail-in ballot requests Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2020, at the Johnson County election office in Olathe, Kan. The office has processed more than 100,000 mail-in ballot requests so far as more people than normal are expected to vote by mail due to concerns about the coronavirus.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough?

Kayleigh McEnany calls celebrations for Joe Biden 'superspreader events' .
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