•   
  •   
  •   

Politics The 2 BIG reasons why we aren't likely to see the election called on November 3

21:50  30 october  2020
21:50  30 october  2020 Source:   cnn.com

'A lot of chaos': Trump's rhetoric, a global pandemic and a tsunami of lawsuits complicate 2020 election

  'A lot of chaos': Trump's rhetoric, a global pandemic and a tsunami of lawsuits complicate 2020 election Voters should accept that election results may not be known on Election Night and that does not indicate fraud, experts say.Both candidates declared victory, and the dispute dragged on for months. Threats of a civil war loomed. Voter fraud and intimidation ran rampant. Congress was forced to create an electoral commission that would decide the presidency. Voting along party lines, it declared Hayes the winner by just one electoral vote.

The big question heading into the final weekend of the 2020 campaign is this: Will we know who won the White House on Tuesday?

Donald Trump wearing a suit and tie: NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 09: Republican president-elect Donald Trump gives a thumbs up to the crowd during his acceptance speech at his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images) © Mark Wilson/Getty Images NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 09: Republican president-elect Donald Trump gives a thumbs up to the crowd during his acceptance speech at his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

The answer is that we might know, but it is very unlikely that the election will be called by any TV network or media organization on election night. And there are two major reasons why:

Trump casts a 'very secure vote' for himself in Florida: 2020 election updates

  Trump casts a 'very secure vote' for himself in Florida: 2020 election updates "I voted for a guy named Trump," the president said.Trump cast his ballot at the West Palm Beach library near his private Mar-a-Lago club. The president told reporters after leaving the library it was "an honor" to be voting and that he cast a "very secure vote.

1) The 2016 election:

While national polling was, largely, accurate about Hillary Clinton's popular vote margin -- she had a lead of 2.8 million in the popular vote -- there's no question that President Donald Trump's victory four years ago was a surprise to, well, almost everyone. And that includes the media organizations that model the election in hopes of being able to call individual swing states for candidates and, ultimately, declare the next president long before all the actual votes are cast.

Because of that shock to the political system four years ago based, in large part, on Trump's ability to pull nontraditional voters to the polls, there will be a significant amount of caution exercised when it comes to making both projections about who has won closely contested states and who has won the election.

The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

  The week in polls: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them With just eight days to go to Election Day, both national polls and swing state surveys make it clear the race between Trump and Biden is tightening.President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.

The nightmare scenario for anyone attempting to project the next president is what happened in 2000, when Florida was called and then retracted as more information (and votes) became available.

No one wants a repeat of that, particularly given Trump's repeated assertions, with zero facts, that the election is somehow "rigged."

2) The massive early vote:

Because of a combination of the coronavirus pandemic and a series of states changing their laws to make it easier to vote by mail or early in person (because of the virus), the early vote numbers are historically large. In Texas, for example, more people have already voted early than voted -- both early and on Election Day -- in 2016.

We've never seen anything like these early vote numbers, largely because we haven't dealt with a deadly pandemic like Covid-19 in 100 years. Because of the through-the-looking-glass nature of the early vote, it's even harder than normal to produce accurate turnout models on which networks base their projections.

7 days from Election Day -- Here's what we know about who's voted so far in key states

  7 days from Election Day -- Here's what we know about who's voted so far in key states One week from Election Day, early voters so far are younger, more racially diverse and more likely to be Democrats than they were ahead of the 2016 election in many of the key states that could decide the next president. © Joe Raedle/Getty Images DORAL, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 14: I voted stickers are seen as people drop off their Vote-by Mail ballots at the Miami-Dade Election Department headquarters on October 14, 2020 in Doral, Florida. More than 1.9 million Floridians had voted by mail according to statistics posted online by the Florida Division of Elections.

Does the increased early vote mean fewer people will vote in person on Tuesday? Or will Election Day turnout soar commensurate with how much early voting has gone up? Somewhere in between?

No one -- and I mean no one -- knows the answers to those questions. And that means that the people in charge of calling states (and the White House) are going to be extra cautious when it comes to reading the signs their election models are sending them.

Add it all up and you start to understand why staying up super late on November 3 (or very early on November 4) might not mean that you get to hear the identity of the next president.

Caution is warranted -- always -- when announcing something as monumental as the next president of the United States. But it's even more important to be cautious when you are making that sort of projection amid a pandemic and with a man in the White House who has made plain his (false) belief that something nefarious is going on in the voting.

It's better to be right than first. And that's never been more true than in this election.

Polling averages show Trump gaining on Biden in most swing states. Will it be enough? .
Trump gained on Biden in polling average in 9 of 12 swing states since Monday, continuing last week's trend. But of those, he is only ahead in Texas.The deadline for early voting ends Friday in several states where the race is tight, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Texas – and on Saturday in the key states of Florida and North Carolina. Though early turnout appears to favor Democrats in many states, Republicans are gaining ground quickly in Florida and other early voting states.

usr: 0
This is interesting!