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Politics The final week in polls: Trump eats into Biden's leads in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania

22:25  02 november  2020
22:25  02 november  2020 Source:   usatoday.com

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Most of the final polls of the 2020 election season have rolled in, and they show the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden has tightened since mid-October, both nationally and in battleground states.

Biden's lead in USA TODAY's average of averages, which is based on data from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, reached double-digits on Oct. 12, but has since fallen back to a 7.5-percentage point lead. That leaves him back roughly in the same position USA TODAY found him in its first poll roundup on Sept. 28, when his polling average lead over Trump was 7.2 points.

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After some swings, several of the battleground states' polling averages are very close to where they were more than a month ago – before the debates, and the tumult caused by the White House coronavirus outbreak that included the president.

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Two of the big shifts since September occurred in states where Trump led: Georgia and Texas. While he enjoyed a 1.2-point average lead in Georgia on Sept. 28, Trump now trails Biden there by 0.8 points. And Trump's once 2.7-point lead in the Lone Star State now stands at 1.1.

Though Biden still leads in Arizona, his advantage there has fallen from 3.6 to 1.7 points. He has also seen large losses of support in Nevada, where his lead went from 5.9 to 4.2, and North Carolina, where his lead went from 9.1 to 6.8. On Monday, Biden is traveling to Ohio where he led by an average of 2.2 points on Sept. 28, but now trails Trump by 1 point.

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Biden's average lead in Pennsylvania – a state crucial for both candidates' election hopes – was 4.8 points at the end of September, now, it is down to 3.8. An NBC News/Marist College poll released Monday showed Biden up 51%-46% among likely voters in the state.

As with Biden, the polls were in Hillary Clinton's favor the day before she lost to Trump in the 2016 election, though Clinton's lead at this point in 2016 was less than half that enjoyed by Biden.

The national results and the results in all the battleground states fall into the margin of error for many of the polls used in the averages – the closer races fall into the margin of error for all the surveys included in their average results. Polls are also snapshots from days earlier that don't reflect the most recent news and trends.

Last week: Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

National average

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.4%, Trump 44.0% (Biden +7.5)

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Last week: Biden 51.4%, Trump 42.9% (Biden +8.5)

Net change: Trump +1.0

  • RCP: Biden 50.9%, Trump 44.4%
  • FiveThirtyEight: Biden 51.9%, Trump 43.5%

Day before 2016 election: Clinton +3.5

Swing state averages

Arizona: Biden +1.7

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.1%, Trump 46.4%

Last week: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.1% (Biden +2.7)

Net change: Trump +1.0

Florida: Biden +1.7

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.6%, Trump 46.9%

Last week: Biden 48.9%, Trump 47.0% (Biden +1.9)

Net change: Trump +0.2

Georgia: Biden +0.8

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.1%, Trump 47.3%

Last week: Biden 47.6%, Trump 47.1% (Biden +0.5)

Net change: Biden +0.3

Iowa: Trump +1.5

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 47.4%, Biden 45.9%

Last week: Biden 47.4%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +1.1)

Net change: Trump +2.6

Michigan: Biden +6.6

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.9%

Last week: Biden 50.5%, Trump 42.7% (Biden +7.8)

Net change: Trump +1.2

Minnesota: Biden +6.8

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0%, Trump 43.2%

Last week: Biden 49.1%, Trump 42.7% (Biden +6.4)

Net change: Biden +0.4

Nevada: Biden +4.2

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.0%, Trump 44.8%

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Last week: Biden 49.6%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +5.8)

Net change: Trump +1.6

North Carolina: Biden +0.6

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.0%, Trump 47.4%

Last week: Biden 49.1%, Trump 47.2% (Biden +1.9)

Net change: Trump +1.3

Ohio: Trump +1.0

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 47.5%, Biden 46.5%

Last week: Trump 47.4%, Biden 46.4% (Trump +1.0)

Net change: No change

Pennsylvania: Biden +3.8

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.7%, Trump 45.9%

Last week: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.6% (Biden +5.4)

Net change: Trump +1.6

Texas: Trump +1.1

USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.1%, Biden 47.0%

Last week: Trump 48.1%, Biden 46.8% (Trump +1.3)

Net change: Biden +0.2

Wisconsin: Biden +7.4

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.3%, Trump 43.9%

Last week: Biden 50.1%, Trump 44.4%, (Biden +5.7)

Net change: Biden +1.7

Key Senate races

Alabama: Sen. Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Tuberville 86% chance of victory

RCP Average: N/A

Cook Political Report: Leans Republican

Recent polls:

  • Data for Progress – Tuberville 56%, Jones 44%
  • Auburn University at Montgomery – Tuberville 54%, Jones 43%
  • Cygnal – Tuberville 55%, Jones 41%

Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Al Gross (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Sullivan 77% chance of victory

RCP Average: NA

Cook Political Report: Leans Republican

Recent polls:

  • Public Policy Polling – Sullivan 44%, Gross 41%
  • Gravis Marketing – Sullivan 48%, Gross 45%
  • The New York Times/Siena College – Sullivan 45%, Gross 37%

Arizona: Sen. Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)

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FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Kelly 78% chance of victory

RCP Average: Kelly 50.0%, McSally 44.2%

Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat

Recent polls:

  • The New York Times/Siena College – Kelly 50%, McSally 43%
  • CNN – Kelly 52%, McSally 45%
  • Rasmussen Reports – Kelly 48%, McSally 43%

Colorado: Sen. Cory Gardner (R) vs. John Hickenlooper (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Hickenlooper 84% chance of victory

RCP Average: N/A

Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat

Recent polls:

  • Data for Progress – Hickenlooper 54%, Gardner 45%
  • Keating Research – Hickenlooper 53%, Gardner 42%
  • Morning Consult – Hickenlooper 50%, Gardner 42%

Georgia: Sen. David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Perdue 58% chance of victory

RCP Average: Ossoff 47.0%, Perdue 46.0%

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Recent polls:

  • Monmouth University – Ossoff 49%, Perdue 46%
  • Emerson College – Ossoff 47%, Perdue 46%
  • WSB-TV/Landmark Communications – Perdue 47%, Ossoff 47%

Georgia: Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) vs. Doug Collins (R) vs. Raphael Warnock (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Warnock 63% chance of victory

RCP Average: Warnock 39.0%, Loeffler 23.4%, Collins 21.4%

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Recent polls:

  • Monmouth University – Warnock 41%, Loeffler 21%, Collins 18%
  • Emerson College – Warnock 37%, Collins 25%, Loeffler 23%
  • WSB-TV/Landmark Communications – Warnock 37%, Loeffler 25%, Collins 23%

Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Each has 50% chance of victory

RCP Average: Ernst 47.3%, Greenfield 45.3%

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Recent polls:

  • Des Moines Register – Ernst 46%, Greenfield 42%
  • Emerson College – Greenfield 48%, Ernst 44%
  • Quinnipiac University – Ernst 48%, Greenfield 46%

Kansas: Barbara Bollier (D)  vs. Roger Marshall (R)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Marshall 76% chance of victory

RCP Average: N/A

Cook Political Report: Leans Republican

Recent polls:

  • The New York Times/Siena College – Marshall 46%, Bollier 42%
  • VCreek/AMG – Marshall 47%, Bollier 43%
  • Public Policy Polling – Marshall 43%, Bollier 43%

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Sara Gideon (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Gideon 57% chance of victory

RCP Average: N/A

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Recent polls:

  • Emerson College – Gideon 48%, Collins 42%
  • Bangor Daily News/SurveyUSA – Gideon 46%, Collins 45%
  • Colby College – Gideon 47%, Collins 43%

Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) vs. John James (R)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Peters 83% chance of victory

RCP Average: Peters 49.5%, James 44.0%

Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat

Recent polls:

  • Reuters/Ipsos – Peters 51%, James 44%
  • Detroit Free Press – Peters 47%, James 42%
  • CNN – Peters 52%, James 40%

Montana: Sen. Steve Daines (R) vs. Steve Bullock (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Daines 67% chance of victory

RCP Average: N/A

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Recent polls:

  • Montana State University Billings – Bullock 48%, Daines 47%
  • Public Policy Polling – Bullock 48%, Daines 47%
  • The New York Times/Siena College – Daines 49%, Bullock 46%

North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Cunningham 64% chance of victory

RCP Average: Cunningham 46.8%, Tillis 44.3%

Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Recent polls:

  • Emerson College – Cunningham 46%, Tillis 43%
  • Rasmussen Reports – Cunningham 47%, Tillis 44%
  • East Carolina University – Cunningham 47%, Tillis 46%

South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) vs. Jaime Harrison (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Graham 78% chance of victory

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RCP average: N/A

Cook Political Report ranking: Toss-up

Recent polls:

  • East Carolina University – Graham 49%, Harrison 46%
  • Data for Progress – Graham 46%, Harrison 46%
  • The New York Times/Siena College – Graham 46%, Harrison 40%

Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R) vs. M.J. Hegar (D)

FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Cornyn 86% chance of victory

RCP average: Cornyn 47.8%, Hegar 41.0%

Cook Political Report ranking: Leans Republican

  • Recent polls:
  • Emerson College – Cornyn 50%, Hegar 45%
  • University of Massachusetts Lowell – Cornyn 49%, Hegar 44%
  • The New York Times/Siena College – Cornyn 48%, Hegar 38%

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The final week in polls: Trump eats into Biden's leads in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania

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