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Politics It just got harder for Democrats to hold their House majority in 2022

20:40  04 may  2021
20:40  04 may  2021 Source:   cnn.com

Can Democrats Avoid a Wipeout in 2022?

  Can Democrats Avoid a Wipeout in 2022? Biden’s plan: Go big or go home.The bad news: Voters have almost always punished the president’s party in the next midterm election anyway. The last two times Democrats had unified control—with Bill Clinton in 1993–94 and Barack Obama in 2009–10—they endured especially resounding repudiations in the midterms, which cost Clinton his majority in both chambers and Obama the loss of the House.

Just one week after the Census Bureau announced which states would be gaining and losing congressional seats before the 2022 election, the dominoes are beginning to fall -- and the news is not good for Democrats desperately clinging to their single-digit majority in the House of Representatives.

a close up of a person wearing glasses and smiling at the camera: WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 04: U.S. Speaker of the House Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks during a weekly news briefing at the U.S. Capitol February 4, 2021 in Washington, DC. Speaker Pelosi spoke on various topics during the news briefing. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) © Alex Wong/Getty Images WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 04: U.S. Speaker of the House Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks during a weekly news briefing at the U.S. Capitol February 4, 2021 in Washington, DC. Speaker Pelosi spoke on various topics during the news briefing. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The big blow came last Friday, when Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, one of just seven Democrats who currently represents a district former President Donald Trump won in 2020, announced she would not run again. While Bustos didn't mention redistricting -- and the news that Illinois' delegation will be forced to shrink by a seat before 2022 -- it's hard not see that, plus the fact that there was no obvious statewide office for her to run for, as contributing to her decision to step aside.

Avoiding White Backlash Is a Racial-Justice Issue

  Avoiding White Backlash Is a Racial-Justice Issue Democrats can’t make major legislative progress on racial equality without winning more Senate seats. To do that, they must win more white votes.Historically, Republicans have taken pains to emphasize this fact, while Democrats have attempted to downplay it. The logic of these tactics was straightforward: The U.S. electorate is both overwhelmingly white and overwhelmingly non-rich.

While Democrats control the line-drawing process in Illinois, it will be tough to draw a Democratic-friendly district in the western Illinois area that Bustos' 17th district covers. (Trump won the 17th in 2020 and 2016.) Which could cost the party a seat that Democrats can ill afford to lose.

And while the Bustos retirement was the headline news out of the 2022 campaign over the last few days, Florida Rep. Charlie Crist's (D) decision to, again, run for governor -- which he announced on Tuesday -- creates another problem for House Democrats.

Crist's 13th district on the western coast of the Sunshine State favors Democrats, yes, but not by wide margins. Joe Biden won the seat by 4 points in 2020 and Hillary Clinton won the seat by 3 points in 29016. But Republicans are in full control of the re-mapping of Florida over the next year, and Crist's seat could well be a major target now that it is open.

Joe Manchin wants to save Democrats from themselves

  Joe Manchin wants to save Democrats from themselves But is his love for the filibuster dooming the country to dysfunction?The year was 1983, the setting was West Virginia’s statehouse in Charleston, and the deadline was the end of the legislative session at midnight. Democratic leaders wanted to pass a bill creating a board that could cap rates charged by hospitals in the state. Manchin, a 35-year-old first-term state representative, had opposed the proposal.

And Crist isn't the only Florida Democrat looking at statewide office. Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) has said she is considering a run against Sen. Marco Rubio (R) in 2022. And Rep. Val Demings (D) is considering gubernatorial and Senate bids.

A trio of Democratic open seats in Florida would be a massive gift to Republican redistricters looking to improve on the party's current 16-11 majority over Democrats -- and with a new seat coming to the state after reapportionment.

Another state to keep an eye on is Pennsylvania, where the state's open Senate seat -- Pat Toomey (R) is retiring -- is attracting interest from a number of House Democrats, most notably Rep. Conor Lamb who represents a western Pennsylvania seat that Biden won in 2020 but Trump carried in 2016. If Lamb runs, his 17th district could be carved up by the state's line-drawers -- control of redistricting is split between the two parties -- who will have to find a way to reduce the congressional delegation by a seat in 2022.

Census reapportionment likely helps GOP, but only slightly

  Census reapportionment likely helps GOP, but only slightly Changes in how many congressional representatives each state gets for 2022 and beyond appear to benefit Republicans — but only a little. © Provided by Washington Examiner Redistricting fights to come will be much more influential in determining which party has an edge in “safe” congressional districts. The Census Bureau revealed on Monday that as a result of the 2020 counting of the population, reapportionment of the 435 House seats means losses of districts in mostly Democratic-leaning states and gains in mostly Republican-leaning states.

The Senate candidacy of Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio and the possible Senate candidacy of Rep. Ron Kind in Wisconsin are two other major concerns for Democrats, as both states lost a seat in reapportionment and redistricters will be on the hunt for districts they can compress or eliminate altogether.

Much of this is par for the course in the first election after the decennial redistricting process -- especially in states slated to lose a seat (or more) or where the opposition party controls all levers of the line-drawing process.

But every retirement matters that much more to Democrats this election cycle, because their majority is so remarkably thin. At the moment, Democrats control 218 seats to 212 for Republicans, although that margin is expected to grow by a seat next week when Louisiana Rep.-elect Troy Carter (D) is formally sworn in.

Then there's the ominous cloud of history for Democrats to contend with. According to Gallup, the average numbers of seats lost for a president's party in a midterm election since 1946 is 25. Since World War II, the average seat loss is 23 for a president's party in their first term.

Combine it all and Democrats were going to have a hard time holding their majority under the best of circumstances. When you factor in the weight of history and their recent series of problematic retirements (with more likely to come!), the majority looks very, very imperiled.

Donations from teachers unions spiked as Congress debated school reopening, virus relief .
As debates raged earlier this year over reopening schools and including money for education in a massive coronavirus relief package, the nation’s largest teachers unions sharply increased their spending on political contributions, a comparison to the same period in 2019 shows. The money overwhelmingly went to Democrats, who had just taken control of the White […] The post Donations from teachers unions spiked as Congress debated school reopening, virus relief appeared first on Roll Call.

usr: 1
This is interesting!