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Politics A new election forecast gives Democrats hope for 2022

02:08  11 june  2021
02:08  11 june  2021 Source:   cnn.com

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Conventional wisdom -- and history -- points to a disappointing 2022 at the ballot box for Democrats .

Democrats , meanwhile, are in danger of underperforming yet again in the 2022 midterms if they don’t hone a winning economic message with minority voters, especially, according to a new report in the New York Times. The clock is ticking for Republicans on infrastructure, as Democrats plan to start preparing the bill for a vote in the House on Wednesday, with or without GOP support, according to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. "The president still has hope , Joe Manchin still has hope ” for crafting a bipartisan infrastructure bill, Granholm told CNN yesterday.

Conventional wisdom -- and history -- points to a disappointing 2022 at the ballot box for Democrats.

a close up of a map © CNN

The first midterm election of a newly elected president is almost always bad news for their party in Congress. Republicans lost 40 seats in the House in 2018, while Democrats dropped 62 seats in 2010.

In fact, the president's party has lost, on average, nearly 28 House seats and more than three Senate seats in the 19 midterm elections between 1946 and 2018.

Those numbers come courtesy of Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz, who came out with his first 2022 election forecast on Thursday.

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The special election lockout in Texas, coupled with retirement and redistricting news, highlighted just how hard 2022 will be for House Democrats . By ALLY MUTNICK and SARAH FERRIS. The four swing-state Senate Democrats likeliest to face the toughest reelection fights — Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada — each raised more than million, posting higher totals than any incumbent senator two years ago.

A Democratic post-mortem of the 2020 election reveals this troubling reality: Many voters were convinced by Republican attacks that the Democratic Party and its candidates embraced socialism and other radical views. The report, viewed broadly, should sound the alarm for Democrats looking to 2022 -- even as the party finds itself in a civil war between its liberal and moderate wings over election reform and the use of the filibuster more broadly. (On Monday morning, New York Democratic Rep.

And while history doesn't look great for Democrats' chances of holding onto their narrow majorities in the House and Senate, Abramowitz's model suggest that all is not lost for the Party -- by a long shot.

"A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate," he writes. "Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House."

Abramowitz's model is primarily powered by two factors:

1) The generic ballot question. This Is a common question asked in national polls that usually goes along these lines: "If the election was today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for House?" No names are used -- hence "generic." While the generic ballot is useless in predicting the outcome of any individual race, the question has generally served as a good indicator of what way the national winds are blowing -- and which party is benefitting.

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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing nonpartisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. I have finally acquired a mic to commentate over my videos and i hope you all enjoy! As somebody who is very interested in politics, specifically the statistics and analysis behind it all, i love making these types of videos. The content is 100% originally created through Keynote. Every video I make takes hours of editing and creating in terms of the graphics and overall cinematography.

Buckeye Democrats are also bullish about their chances given the budding ideological civil war happening on the ground between Trump loyalists like Reps. Gov. John Fetterman and Attorney General Josh Shapiro. Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes delivered the presidency to Joe Biden this past November and — considering the deep blue bench as well as voting trends in the commonwealth — give Democrats great hope of flipping the Toomey seat.

2) The raw number of seats both parties are defending. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022).

Depending then on which side has the edge in the generic ballot, Abramowitz's model spits out a variety of outcomes.

The rosiest for Democrats (a 10-point lead in the generic ballot in the fall of 2022) would result in a gain of two seats for House Democrats and a three-seat pickup for Senate Democrats.

The worst scenario (a 10-point edge for Republicans in the generic ballot) would, according to the Abramowitz model, result in a 32-seat loss by Democrats in the House and a 1-seat loss in the Senate.

(Worth noting: A Quinnipiac University national poll in May gave Democrats a 9-point advantage in the generic ballot.)

"Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts ... show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot," concludes Abramowitz.

The Point: Next November is a loooong way off. But Abramowitz's model provides a glimmer of hope for Democrats expecting doom and gloom in 2022.

Texas GOP to revive voting bill, Democrats plot next move .
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Texas Republicans pressed ahead with their push for tougher election laws Tuesday, vowing to ensure Democrats' weekend victory over one the most restrictive voting measures in the country would only be temporary. GOP Gov. Greg Abbott prepared to call lawmakers back for a special session to revive the voting measure that died when Democrats staged a dramatic walkout from the state Capitol just before end of the legislative session Sunday night. Bolstered by GOP majorities in both the House and Senate, Abbott also was weighing whether to use the extra session to take up other top conservative priorities that had failed during the session.

usr: 1
This is interesting!