Politics Trump commands historic attention for an ex-president. That may hurt the GOP.
Senate candidates walk Trump tightrope as he returns to Arizona
Former President Donald Trump will return Saturday to Arizona, where Republicans are looking to rebound after losing both of the state’s Senate seats in the past two elections. Unlike candidates in other states with contested Senate GOP primaries, the top four Republicans vying to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly next year are embracing Trump’s […] The post Senate candidates walk Trump tightrope as he returns to Arizona appeared first on Roll Call.
A sitting president of the United States is usually the person who drives political conversation. Former presidents tend to be an afterthought.
But even as we stand more than six months into Joe Biden's administration, the President is fighting for attention with his predecessor, Donald Trump, to a degree not seen in recent history. The impact of this dynamic could upend expectations about the midterm elections.
Trump World is already weighing veeps for 2024. Hint: It ain’t Pence.
The former president is keeping tabs on the field and he’s all but decided to ditch the guy he ran with last time.No formal vetting process is in place, and there is no expectation that Trump, should he run, will do so unopposed in a Republican primary. But allies of the former president are already keeping tabs on how GOP officials with presidential ambitions are addressing Trump himself and the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election.
Dominating cable news mentions was one of the reasonsand won their respective nominations before becoming president.
In the month of July,and have been running about equally in mentions on cable news.
This is really unusual. Four years ago in July,was getting mentioned on cable more than by a 9:1 ratio. Eight years before that, Obama was getting on cable than his predecessor, , by a similar margin.
Part of what is happening is that Trump is getting more cable news mentions than usual for a former president. And Biden, for his part, has had his name uttered on cable news far less than Trump did in July 2017.
The attention Trump has commanded isn't just a cable news phenomenon. We see an exaggerated version of it in Google trends as well.
Want to evaluate Donald Trump's judgment? Listen to Donald Trump
Trump’s self-acknowledged lapses of judgment constitute a pattern.As president, Trump selected people to serve in the most important positions in the United States government. Anyone interested in assessing his judgment should pay attention to his reasons for choosing them and his subsequent assessments of their performance in office.
Trump has actually been searched more often than Bidenby about a 3:2 ratio during the last 30 days.
Video: Longtime GOP pollster's blunt advice to Biden on vaccines (CNN)
Again, this is an outlier in recent history. Searches for Trump were more than 10 times higher than searches for Obama at this point. And back in 2009, searches for Obama for Bush by more than a 10:1 margin.
Like with cable news mentions, Trump getting searched so much more relative to Biden is partially because Trump is getting searched a lot for a former president and partially because Biden isn't getting searched anywhere near the levels Trump was during this point in his presidency.
We see how much Trump still dominates the political mindset in the real world. The mediain political races with a close eye. Trump's continue to make news.
Analysis: January 6 committee opening is crucial chance to correct Trump's lies
The tasks before the Democratic-led House Select Committee examining the January 6 insurrection that opens on Tuesday, after bitter partisan feuding over its make-up, could hardly be more critical. © Samuel Corum/Getty Images WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 06: Pro-Trump supporters storm the U.S. Capitol following a rally with President Donald Trump on January 6, 2021 in Washington, DC. Trump supporters gathered in the nation's capital today to protest the ratification of President-elect Joe Biden's Electoral College victory over President Trump in the 2020 election.
Put another way: Trump matters.
Of course, mattering and helping the Republican Party are two very different things.
Opposition parties generally want the political focus on the current president. Few election traditions are as regular as the president's party losing seats in a midterm election. One of the drivers of seat loss for the president's party losing seats is. Members of the president's party are less motivated to vote when they control the White House.
The traditional midterm penalty may hold regardless of Trump being in the news so much. He could drop out of the news cycle as we approach November 2022. There's still a long way to go.
But we honestly don't know what might happen when the current occupant of the White House is fighting for media attention with the former president -- especially, when Trump continues to falsely claim that he won the last election. It could change the turnout dynamic.
The limited polling we have at this point has Democrats saying they are as likely as Republicans to vote in 2022. Antaken in June showed that about the same percentage of Democrats (63%) as Republicans (64%) said they were certain to vote in 2022. An average of other polling generally confirms that Democrats are about as motivated as Republicans to vote.
What the loss by Trump’s favorite in an all-GOP Texas runoff means
Just hours after he beat the candidate backed by Donald Trump in a House special election, Texas Republican Jake Ellzey got a congratulatory call — from the former president. The call Wednesday morning was “extremely cordial,” said Craig Murphy, Ellzey’s consultant, who said he was not at liberty to share details. “There was just humor […] The post What the loss by Trump’s favorite in an all-GOP Texas runoff means appeared first on Roll Call.
This doesn't look like the polling with concern to turnout at this point in either 2009 or 2013 for the upcoming midterm, when there was a Democratic president. Republicans usually have ain midterms with a Democratic president.
The pattern in special elections during the Biden administrationto a big shift toward the Republicans just yet. That's very much unlike what was happening in 2017 at this time.
And remember, Democrats were able to pick up two Senate seats in Georgia in January. Republicans didn't haveyou might expect with an incoming Democratic president.
We'll have to keep an eye on these metrics as we approach the midterms. But it seems possible that Trump may continue to make history.
N.C. GOP candidates struggle to out-Trump each other — who will be the Biggest Loser? .
Trump's surprise endorsement in North Carolina Senate race "blindsided" campaigns, sparks insults and infighting Mark Walker, Pat McCrory and Ted-Budd Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images