Politics This poll should terrify Democrats ahead of 2022
Without drastic changes, Dems are on track to lose big in 2022
Simply put, the current 2022 outlook for Democrats is grim — and it could get even worse.Moreover, President Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors - Bill Clinton and Barack Obama - at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.
It's the rare poll that makes an entire party sit up and take notice. Theis one of those polls.
Just 31% of Iowans approved of how Joe Biden is handling his duties as president while a whopping 62% disapprove. Biden's disapproval number is below the lowest ever measured by ace pollster J. Ann Selzer for former presidents Donald Trump (35%) and Barack Obama (36%).
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"This is a bad poll for Joe Biden, and it's playing out in everything that he touches right now," Selzer
Biden's approval on pulling American troops out of Afghanistan stands at a meager 22%. Approval for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is now just 36% among Iowans.
This poll is rightly understood as a blaring red alarm for not just Biden but especially down-ballot Democrats -- in Iowa and elsewhere -- who will be running in the 2022 midterms.
While Iowa is not the pure swing state that it was in, say, 2000, it remains a place where Democrats can and do win -- both in statewide elections and in congressional districts. Democrats, as recently as 2020, controlled three of the state's four House seats although Republicans won both the first and second districts back last November. And both are considered Democratic re-takeover targets in 2022 -- depending, of course, on.
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It’s not just progressives versus moderates.Joe Biden may have less room for error.
If Biden's numbers are anywhere close to this bad in other swing states -- and districts --- Democrats' hopes of holding onto their very narrow three-seat House majority are somewhere close to nonexistent.
While first term, midterm elections are, historically, very difficult for the president's party in the House, that trend is made far, far worse if the president's approval rating is below 50%.:
"In Gallup's polling history, presidents with job approval ratings below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats, on average, in midterm elections. That compares with an average loss of 14 seats when presidents had approval ratings above 50%."
That average is even higher in the wake of the 2018 midterms, wherethanks in large part to Donald Trump's approval ratings being stuck in the low 40s.
The best news out of this poll for Biden and Democrats is that it is September 2021, not September 2022. Which means that Biden -- and the Democratic-controlled Congress -- have time to turn his numbers around, likely by finding a way to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and some sort of major budget proposal (although both of those bills have an uncertain path forward at the moment).
But if the President's numbers in Iowa are anything close to where they are today, it is an absolute disaster for Democrats -- and would presage the near-certain loss of a large number of House seats (and their majority) come next November.
Democrats Set to Lose Control of Senate in 2022, Polling Suggests .
New polling shows Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is in a tough fight to retain her seat in Nevada.The party's Senate majority currently depends on Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a casting vote in the chamber in which Democrats and Republicans are split 50-50.