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Politics This poll should terrify Democrats ahead of 2022

18:20  21 september  2021
18:20  21 september  2021 Source:   cnn.com

Without drastic changes, Dems are on track to lose big in 2022

  Without drastic changes, Dems are on track to lose big in 2022 Simply put, the current 2022 outlook for Democrats is grim — and it could get even worse.Moreover, President Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors - Bill Clinton and Barack Obama - at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.

It's the rare poll that makes an entire party sit up and take notice. The new Iowa poll is one of those polls.

Joe Biden wearing a suit and tie smiling and looking at the camera: WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 05: U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander civil rights leaders in the State Dining Room of the White House August 5, 2021 in Washington, DC. Biden met with the group to discuss the economy, immigration reform, the administration's response to the rise in acts of anti-Asian bias and violence, and voting rights. Biden also spoke on the passing of AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka who was a close personal friend. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) © Win McNamee/Getty Images North America/Getty Images WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 05: U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander civil rights leaders in the State Dining Room of the White House August 5, 2021 in Washington, DC. Biden met with the group to discuss the economy, immigration reform, the administration's response to the rise in acts of anti-Asian bias and violence, and voting rights. Biden also spoke on the passing of AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka who was a close personal friend. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Just 31% of Iowans approved of how Joe Biden is handling his duties as president while a whopping 62% disapprove. Biden's disapproval number is below the lowest ever measured by ace pollster J. Ann Selzer for former presidents Donald Trump (35%) and Barack Obama (36%).

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"This is a bad poll for Joe Biden, and it's playing out in everything that he touches right now," Selzer told the Des Moines Register.

Biden's approval on pulling American troops out of Afghanistan stands at a meager 22%. Approval for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is now just 36% among Iowans.

This poll is rightly understood as a blaring red alarm for not just Biden but especially down-ballot Democrats -- in Iowa and elsewhere -- who will be running in the 2022 midterms.

While Iowa is not the pure swing state that it was in, say, 2000, it remains a place where Democrats can and do win -- both in statewide elections and in congressional districts. Democrats, as recently as 2020, controlled three of the state's four House seats although Republicans won both the first and second districts back last November. And both are considered Democratic re-takeover targets in 2022 -- depending, of course, on what the congressional map winds up looking like.

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  3 Key Divides in Democrats’ Civil War Over the Biden Agenda It’s not just progressives versus moderates.Joe Biden may have less room for error.

If Biden's numbers are anywhere close to this bad in other swing states -- and districts --- Democrats' hopes of holding onto their very narrow three-seat House majority are somewhere close to nonexistent.

While first term, midterm elections are, historically, very difficult for the president's party in the House, that trend is made far, far worse if the president's approval rating is below 50%. As Gallup wrote in 2018:

"In Gallup's polling history, presidents with job approval ratings below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats, on average, in midterm elections. That compares with an average loss of 14 seats when presidents had approval ratings above 50%."

That average is even higher in the wake of the 2018 midterms, where Republicans lost 40 House seats thanks in large part to Donald Trump's approval ratings being stuck in the low 40s.

The best news out of this poll for Biden and Democrats is that it is September 2021, not September 2022. Which means that Biden -- and the Democratic-controlled Congress -- have time to turn his numbers around, likely by finding a way to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and some sort of major budget proposal (although both of those bills have an uncertain path forward at the moment).

But if the President's numbers in Iowa are anything close to where they are today, it is an absolute disaster for Democrats -- and would presage the near-certain loss of a large number of House seats (and their majority) come next November.

Democrats Set to Lose Control of Senate in 2022, Polling Suggests .
New polling shows Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is in a tough fight to retain her seat in Nevada.The party's Senate majority currently depends on Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a casting vote in the chamber in which Democrats and Republicans are split 50-50.

usr: 11
This is interesting!