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Politics Inside Biden's falling poll numbers: 5 reasons why the president's approval ratings have dropped

01:55  24 september  2021
01:55  24 september  2021 Source:   usatoday.com

Biden's Approval Rating Plummets Below Most Recent Presidents on Day 240, Polling Shows

  Biden's Approval Rating Plummets Below Most Recent Presidents on Day 240, Polling Shows The president's rating has dropped to 46 percent from 50.3 percent in August.FiveThirtyEight reported the president's approval rating as of Thursday, his 240th day in office. Though Biden's rating dropped from 50.3 percent in August, it is higher than Donald Trump's 38.8 percent at the same point during his presidency.

President Joe Biden ' s approval rating dropped by 7 percentage points and hit its lowest level so far as the U. S .-backed Afghan government collapsed over the weekend in an upheaval that sent thousands of civilians and Afghan military allies fleeing for their safety, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll . A separate Ipsos snap poll , also conducted on Monday, found that fewer than half of Americans liked the way Biden has steered the U. S . military and diplomatic effort in Afghanistan this year. The president , who just last month praised Afghan forces for being "as well-equipped as any in the world," was rated

Why do you think Biden ' s approval rating has sunk to 46%, with just 3 months ago it was at 58%? In fact, taking the people who were voting against Clinton and those who really didn’t care or didn’t know much about either candidate, you’ve got a lot of people who couldn’t be depended on to continue supporting Trump. Back to your question: Trump’ s approval rating is dropping because the people who voted against Hillary and those who really didn’t care are moving into the “Trump Disapproval” category.

WASHINGTON — After riding high his first six months, President Joe Biden has seen his approval rating steadily decline since June, with numbers plummeting after a tumultuous August rocked by soaring COVID-19 cases at home and a chaotic military pullout from Afghanistan.

Biden's job approval dipped below 50% in several polls for the first time last month, and this week brought new lows: Gallup found Biden's approval rating has fallen to 43%, a 6-percentage point drop since August and the lowest of his presidency. A new Pew Research Center survey released Thursday has Biden's approval rating at 44%.

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The only reason Biden ’ s approval rating is above 50% is that he is being propped up by the media. However, the results of his performance and policies cannot remain hidden forever as is beginning to happen, his approval number will plummet. 150 views. The highest poll number this month was 62%. The RealClearPolitics major poll average is 54% today. The accompanying graph shows his average job approval number on January 27 was 55. 5 %, has been as high as 55.8% and no lower than 52.8%. OUT OF 49 polls since January 20, 3 have been at 48 and 2 at 49%.

US President Joe Biden is facing dropping approval ratings as he deals with a backlash from both sides of the political aisle for his handling of the military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Fewer than half of Americans surveyed approve of the president ’ s performance, according to a poll Among that majority, 45% “strongly disapprove” . Only 27% expressed “strong” approval of the Democrat. Tracking from Rasmussen and other surveys shows Biden has been facing declining public approval ratings for weeks. Criticism of his performance in the White House has meanwhile reached a new level, with both

a person wearing a suit and tie talking on a cell phone: President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn after returning to the White House September 20, 2021 in Washington, DC. President Biden returned to Washington after spending the weekend in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. © Alex Wong, Getty Images President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn after returning to the White House September 20, 2021 in Washington, DC. President Biden returned to Washington after spending the weekend in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

For the first time, both polls found a majority of Americans, 53%, disapprove of Biden's job performance.

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"We can safely say that he's no longer in his honeymoon phase," said Megan Brenan, a senior analyst at Gallup.

More: Biden approval rate takes hit from both Democrats and Republicans in latest Pew poll

Biden's fall comes as his social safety-net and climate agenda are in peril as progressive and moderate Democrats battle over its size and scope. In 14 months, Democrats are at risk of losing control of the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections.

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A new AP-NORC poll shows President Joe Biden ' s approval rating on foreign policy has fallen to 47%, while his approval rating stands at 51%. The poll comes as other surveys indicated that Biden ' s overall job approval rating is continuing its month-long decline and has dropped below 50% for the first time in his presidency . What' s the point: Americans have given their initial reaction to how Biden handled the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, and it seems to be negative.

President Joe Biden already has tangled with members of both parties over the U. S . response to the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration and infrastructure since his inauguration less than three months ago. But his approval rating is not at a historic low, as a viral social media post suggests. “The LOWEST approval rating of ANY president in American history,” it claims. That claim is false. Gallup has measured Biden ’ s approval rating at an average of 56% in three polls since he was sworn in Jan.

Perhaps most troubling for Biden: His support among independent voters – who helped carry him to victory over Donald Trump in last year's election – has cratered.

More: Biden's approval rating drops to lowest point amid rise in COVID, Afghanistan fallout

While Biden's Gallup approval rating has dipped among self-described Democrats – from 98% in January to 90% today – and Republicans – from 12% to 6% – the president has lost the most traction with Americans affiliated with neither party. Gallup found 37% of independents approve of Biden's job performance, a sharp 24-point drop form his personal high of 61%. He's lost the support of two-thirds of these independent detractors in just the last three months.

Here are five reasons why Biden's approval rating has reached a new bottom:

1. The rise of the delta variant

Perhaps the biggest driver of Biden's collapse is more Americans are questioning the president's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, coinciding with the surge of the delta variant over the summer and into the fall.

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President Joe Biden ' s approval rating just keeps sinking and the latest numbers from a Gallup survey released on Wednesday show a bleak trend for both him and Kamala Harris. Biden is now LESS popular than Trump: Poll shows Americans regret voting for him after the president ' s disastrous exit from Afghanistan, border chaos and deadlock in Congress. Donald Trump overthrew Joe Biden in approval ratings for the first time since the two faced off in the 2020 presidential election.

President Joe Biden ' s job approval rating has dropped to 50%, a new low. However, some erosion was expected and Biden still has a positive favorability rating . However, the president ' s second quarter average was below that of former President Barack Obama (62%) and former President George W. Bush (55.8%). From the 1950s to the 1980s, presidents often boasted higher approval ratings than what currently exists today, the result of less stringent political polarization - former Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy both averaged approval ratings exceeding

Although the Pew poll found a majority of Americans, 51%, have confidence in his handling of the coronavirus, it marks a 14-point drop since March. Gallup last month found an even lower number, 40% of Americans, said he was communicating a clear plan of action in response to the virus, down from 51% in June.

"There was an expectation among some that the crisis was coming to an end," said Matt Grossman, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. "Obviously, the summer resurgence ended those views, and with that came more concern about the economy and about restrictions – feelings of how much longer are we going to have to deal with this?"

More: Who is covered by Biden's new vaccine mandates and when do they go into effect? Here's what we know.

The FDA authorized booster doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for people 65 and older and workers at high risk for COVID-19 exposure. © Provided by USA TODAY The FDA authorized booster doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for people 65 and older and workers at high risk for COVID-19 exposure.

The president campaigned on bringing an end to the deadly pandemic by listening to doctors and enlisting a full government response. For months, as more Americans got vaccinated against the virus, Biden's strong marks over his handling of the pandemic was his strongest card, helping his approval rating stay comfortably above 50%.

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The outlook looked good on July 4, when Biden declared "we’re closer than ever to declaring our independence from a deadly virus." Then came an unforeseen explosion of the delta variant, leading to a rapid upswing in COVID-19 cases and deaths and pushing Biden to initiate new vaccination mandates that have pitted him against many Republican governors.

"I think the country is going through a lot right now," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said this week, also pointing to the "threat of COVID" when asked about the Gallup numbers. "That is concerning to a lot of people. We see that in polls as well."

"Even as they approve of the president's handling of COVID, that's still something impacting people people's lives."

2. The rapid fall of Afghanistan

As Biden's COVID-19 numbers fell over the summer, Biden also suffered from fallout over his withdrawal from Afghanistan, producing a one-two punch that has hampered his presidency.

Although Americans overwhelmingly say they supported the end of America's 20-year war in Afghanistan, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll Sept. 2 found only 26% approved of Biden's handling of the withdrawal.

The Taliban's rapid takeover of Afghanistan – after Biden told Americans it was "highly unlikely" – undercut Biden's campaign pledge to restore competent, steady leadership in the White House. Images of Afghans clinging to U.S. planes, and then the death of 13 U.S. service members from an ISIS-K terrorist attack in Kabul, fueled widespread criticism over his over his administration's preparedness.

Joe Biden's Approval Rating Sinks to New Low, Falling 14 Percent Since He Entered Office

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More: For Biden, fallout from the Afghanistan withdrawal abroad complicates agenda at home

a group of people sitting on a motorcycle: Members of the Taliban drive in the Pul-e-Charkhi prison in Kabul on September 16, 2021. © BULENT KILIC, AFP via Getty Images Members of the Taliban drive in the Pul-e-Charkhi prison in Kabul on September 16, 2021.

Biden's approval-rating drop has occurred in two parts, according to Brenan, who oversaw the new Gallup poll: the first from June to July, attributable to the COVID-19 spike, and then another from August into September.

"We largely attribute the most recent change to the Afghanistan situation and the continued struggles that President Biden's having with COVID," she said.

Historically, foreign policy events don't have lasting influence on a president's approval rating because of Americans' short-attention span toward international affairs.

Brenan said it's still unclear how long Biden's Afghanistan backlash will last, arguing it also depends on what's going on domestically – "and obviously, right now we have a lot going on domestically."

"There are still some remaining issues with Afghanistan that could follow him," she said, pointing to the resettlement of Afghan refugees in the U.S. as one of those.

3. Unrest at the southern border

Biden has increasingly lost public confidence in his ability to address immigration after a months-long surge of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border that's exposed a struggle to manage the immigration system.

Fifty-seven percent of Americans, according to the Pew Research Center poll, said they don't have confidence in Biden's ability to make "wise decisions" about immigration policy, up from 46% who said the same in March. In contrast, 43% said they are confident in Biden's immigration decision-making, down from 53%.

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The numbers were worse in a Sept. 16 Reuters/Ipsos poll that found 38% of Americans disapprove of his handling of immigration.

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a large body of water surrounded by trees: Thousands of Haitian migrants are stuck at the U.S.-Mexico border wading through the Rio Grande near Del Rio, Texas. © Provided by USA TODAY Thousands of Haitian migrants are stuck at the U.S.-Mexico border wading through the Rio Grande near Del Rio, Texas.

Republicans have seized on record migration to the southern border since Biden's inauguration, calling it "crisis" and slamming Biden for not visiting.

More than 200,000 migrants were encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in July, the highest in roughly two decades, according to statistics released by Customs and Border Protection.

The situation was magnified further this week when a peak of 15,000 Haitian migrants arrived in Del Rio, Texas this week, prompting the Biden administration to expel the Haitians who entered the country illegally.

The immigration issue appears unlikely to go away for Biden before the 2022 midterm elections.

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  Biden Gets Lowest Approval Rating on Immigration With Just 35 Percent Support: Poll Among Democrats, 60 percent of Americans said they approve of the president's handling of the issue, while just 6 percent of Republicans said they approved. More also approve than disapprove of Biden's decision to require that most U.S. workers be vaccinated or face regular testing, 51 percent to 34 percent, with 14 percent saying they neither approve nor disapprove. About eight in 10 Democrats approve; roughly six in 10 of Republicans disapprove.Biden struggles on several issues related to foreign policy.

4. Growing anxiety about the economy

Despite Biden overseeing sizeable job creation after inheriting an economy ravaged by the pandemic, more Americans are pessimistic about the future of the economy.

Biden has repeatedly said the "Biden plan is working," pointing to a falling unemployment rate, job gains and other metrics. But the Pew poll found more Americans, 37%, believe that economic conditions will be worse from now than those who believe it will be better, 29%. Thirty-four percent said they believe there will be no change.

It marks a reversal from March when 44% of Americans said economic conditions would improve over the next year, compared to 31% who said it would get worse.

More: Your 401(k) and the stock market: It's getting bumpy, but experts say don't fret

Republicans in Congress have slammed Biden over rising inflation, which the White House has argued won't be permanent. Yet for now, the public remains concerned.

Most American adults, 63%, say they are very concerned about rising prices for food and consumer goods, according to the Pew survey. The poll also found 42% of Americans are very concerned about employers finding workers to fill jobs and 35% worry about people facing eviction or foreclosures on their homes. Another 29% are concerned about jobseekers not being to find work.

“When you ask people factual questions about how the economy is doing, they will often answer in a partisan way,” said Yanna Krupnikov, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University who researches public opinion and survey data.

More: Economy added 235,000 jobs in August amid COVID surge, worker shortage. Unemployment fell to 5.2%.

Republicans expressed greater concern about rising inflation in the Pew study versus Democrats, at 70%-56%, while 52% of Republicans versus only 34% of Democrats expressed concern about the employers not being able to find workers.

Because of political polarization, swings in public opinion on the economy and other major issues are often most concerning for a president within their own party, according to Krupnikov.

“These are the people who are most predisposed to defend the president, and if you are losing those people that is where the situation gets really challenging,” Krupnikov said.

5.  Hyper-partisanship shortens 'honeymoon'

Among all presidents since World War II, Biden's 43% approval rating in the Gallup poll is the second lowest at this juncture of their presidency, topping only Trump's 37% in September 2017.

It's largely a reflection of hyper-partisan times in which fewer Americans are willing to say they support a president that isn't from their party.

In the 20th century, presidents of both parties have enjoyed approval ratings that at times ranged between 60%to 70%, barring major scandals. The days of such high public approval have disappeared amid bitter disagreements between Americans over politics.

Donald Trump Jr., Donald Trump, Jorge Masvidal are posing for a picture: Former President Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr. speak after the fight between Evander Holyfield and Vitor Belfort. © Douglas P. DeFelice, Getty Images Former President Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr. speak after the fight between Evander Holyfield and Vitor Belfort.

Most presidents historically enjoyed a "honeymoon period" where opinion of the president remains high for longer said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston who studies party polarization.

“The last few presidents haven’t gotten that benefit, largely because of partisan trends. The bloom is off the rose for the Biden White House as foreign events and inflation at home have brought his numbers back to equilibrium.”

In September of their first year in office, Barack Obama's Gallup approval rating was 52%; George W. Bush's, 51%; and Bill Clinton's, 47%.

Trump and Biden have been saddled with increasingly weak poll numbers, by historical standards, as large swaths of the electorate harden opposition while supporters become more resolute.

“Biden is showing the same type of polarized numbers that Trump did, with in-party members largely supporting him and, even more so, out-party members resisting giving him credit where it might be deserved,” said Samara Klar, an associate professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy who studies political attitudes and polarization.

Grossman said Biden's approval rating is unlikely to improve much in the short term unless there's a major development such as a dramatic drop in the number of COVID-19 cases.

But complicating a rapid turnaround is Biden's battle to pass his reconciliation and infrastructure plans in Congress

"Generally when people see open disputes between the parties and within the parties, they sort of assume that proposals are more extreme and D.C. people are looking out for their interests rather than the people's interests," Grossman said. "When people see conflict in D.C., they kind of assume negative things."

Reach Joey Garrison on Twitter @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Inside Biden's falling poll numbers: 5 reasons why the president's approval ratings have dropped

Biden Gets Lowest Approval Rating on Immigration With Just 35 Percent Support: Poll .
Among Democrats, 60 percent of Americans said they approve of the president's handling of the issue, while just 6 percent of Republicans said they approved. More also approve than disapprove of Biden's decision to require that most U.S. workers be vaccinated or face regular testing, 51 percent to 34 percent, with 14 percent saying they neither approve nor disapprove. About eight in 10 Democrats approve; roughly six in 10 of Republicans disapprove.Biden struggles on several issues related to foreign policy.

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