•   
  •   
  •   

Politics Why the Trump Team’s Economic Promises Will Be Hard to Execute

02:05  01 december  2016
02:05  01 december  2016 Source:   nytimes.com

Obama: Trump should follow my example on ethics

  Obama: Trump should follow my example on ethics President-elect Donald Trump should appoint a strong White House counsel to ensure there aren't conflicts of interest that could taint his administration, President Obama said Sunday. Obama gave that advice to Trump in their first meeting in the Oval Office after the election. But questions about the future of Trump's considerable real estate holdings have only increased since then, as family members have taken on a visible role on Trump's presidential transition. Trump has also reportedly met with Indian investors in a hotel project even as he meets with potential cabinet appointments.

WASHINGTON — The middle class will see a big tax cut, but the wealthy will not. American businesses will pay much lower taxes, and as a consequence bring back billions of dollars from overseas. All this will create sustained growth of 3 to 4 percent a year and prevent the budget deficit from exploding.

That is not what independent analysts concluded after analyzing the tax proposal Mr. Trump made during his campaign, which would reduce the income tax rate on the But Mr. Mnuchin was talking big: “This will be the largest tax change since Reagan.” Neil Irwin Posted at 5:40 pm on December 1, 2016.

Wilbur Ross, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, speaking to reporters at Trump Tower in Manhattan on Tuesday. © Sam Hodgson for The New York Times Wilbur Ross, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, speaking to reporters at Trump Tower in Manhattan on Tuesday.

WASHINGTON — The middle class will see a big tax cut, but the wealthy will not. American businesses will pay much lower taxes, and as a consequence bring back billions of dollars from overseas. All this will create sustained growth of 3 to 4 percent a year and prevent the budget deficit from exploding.

That is the economic future described on Wednesday by the people President-elect Donald J. Trump’s has chosen to lead the Treasury and Commerce Departments, Steven Mnuchin and Wilbur Ross.

‘Hillary for Prison’ Crew Turns on Trump

  ‘Hillary for Prison’ Crew Turns on Trump Less than two weeks after his win, the president-elect broke the news to his fans that Crooked Hillary wont be going to jail after all.“It’s just not something that I feel very strongly about," Trump told reporters and columnists at the New York Times Tuesday afternoon. “I don’t want to hurt the Clintons, I really don’t. She went through a lot and suffered greatly in many different ways.

Mr Trump has also promised to get tough with countries that violate trade agreements, applying new tariffs and pursuing cases against them in the World Trade Organization. This would be bad news for many US companies because Mexico is the US' s third largest export market, purchasing 7.2bn in

Politicians and economists agree that what Appalachia really needs is a diversified economy , a goal that has eluded Mr. Obama and state and local But in this land of staggering beauty and economic pain, Trump backers said over and over again that while coal might never be what it once was , the

But in making those bold promises, the two men have contradicted some of Mr. Trump’s campaign pledges, promised economic growth targets that will be difficult to achieve given modern demographics, and committed to plans that even sympathetic analysts project will vastly widen the budget deficit.

Sign Up For the Morning Briefing Newsletter 

The comments shed light on how two men tapped as top economic policy makers in the Trump administration view their job ahead — but also expose what will be challenging about getting campaign goals accomplished.

“Any reductions we have in upper income taxes will be offset by less deductions so that there will be no absolute tax cut for the upper class,” Mr. Mnuchin said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday morning. “There will be a big tax cut for the middle class, but any tax cuts we have for the upper class will be offset by less deductions that pay for it.”

Gingrich, Huckabee don't want Romney in Trump's Cabinet

  Gingrich, Huckabee don't want Romney in Trump's Cabinet Some conservatives are not in love with the idea of Mitt Romney being appointed President-elect Donald Trump's secretary of State. Former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and 2016 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee made their objections to the former Massachusetts governor clear in public statements since rumors of him becoming the leading contender for the job surfaced. Former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and 2016 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee made their objections to the former Massachusetts governor clear in public statements since rumors of him becoming the leading contender for the job surfaced.

As a candidate back in July 2015, Donald J. Trump promised that he would repeal Obamacare and replace it with “something terrific.”. The Senate voted, 51 to 48, on Thursday morning for a measure setting Congress on the path toward repealing President Obama’ s health care law

Donald J. Trump may rail against Wall Street and business elites at his campaign rallies, but that has not stopped him from turning to many of them for economic advice. On Friday, Mr. Trump announced his economic team

That is not what independent analysts concluded after analyzing the tax proposal Mr. Trump made during his campaign, which would reduce the income tax rate on the wealthiest families from its current 39.6 percent to 33 percent.

In that plan, middle-class families would see a 0.8 percent increase in their after-tax income, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, while the top 1 percent of taxpayers would see a 10.2 to 16 percent gain. Another group, the Tax Policy Center, calculated middle-class families would get a 1.8 percent boost in after-tax income, while the top 0.1 percent of earners would see a 14 percent gain and a tax cut worth an average of $1.1 million.

Steven Mnuchin, Mr. Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, at Trump Tower on Wednesday. © Sam Hodgson for The New York Times Steven Mnuchin, Mr. Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, at Trump Tower on Wednesday. But Mr. Mnuchin was talking big: “This will be the largest tax change since Reagan.”

Trump to Announce Carrier Plant Will Keep Jobs in U.S.

  Trump to Announce Carrier Plant Will Keep Jobs in U.S. Reversing a plan the president-elect had assailed, the company will keep more than half of the 2,000 manufacturing jobs in Indiana that it was to shift to Mexico.On Thursday, Mr. Trump and Mike Pence, Indiana’s governor and the vice-president elect, plan to appear at Carrier’s Indianapolis plant to announce they’ve struck a deal with the company to keep a majority of the jobs in the state, according to officials with the transition team as well as Carrier.

White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, in a rare public appearance, outlined President Trump ' s agenda before an enthusiastic crowd at the Conservative

One of President Trump ' s capstone economic promises likely won't be fulfilled until 2018 because of these issues that need immediate administration attention President Donald Trump may delay one of his campaign' s chief economic promises until 2018, according to a report released earlier today

Mr. Mnuchin suggested closing some tax loopholes would counter the effect of lower tax rates for the rich, but he mentioned only one: a cap on the mortgage interest deduction. Tax reformers have long suggested that mortgage payments should either no longer be deductible or be capped for mansions and second homes. Mr. Trump’s Treasury pick did not clarify what he meant.

It was not clear whether the comments on Wednesday represented a shift in Mr. Trump’s tax policy intentions or political spin.

“What he described there doesn’t match the plan unveiled in September,” said Alan Cole, an economist at the Tax Foundation. “This statement could be a legitimate pivot, or it could be hand waving. I don’t know which.”

One promise of Mr. Mnuchin’s that matched Mr. Trump’s was a 15 percent corporate income tax rate, a huge cut from the current 35 percent. Leaders in both parties favor a lower corporate rate, paid for with a simpler tax code with far fewer deductions and dodges. But former Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner could get the rate down only to 28 percent when he ran the numbers. Even House Republicans have aimed for 25 percent.

Sanders blasts Trump's HHS pick: 'What hypocrisy!'

  Sanders blasts Trump's HHS pick: 'What hypocrisy!' "Trump needs to tell the American people that what he said during the campaign were just lies."While Sanders reiterated his support for some of Trump's economic policies, he criticized the president-elect's HHS selection, saying it runs counter to his campaign promises.

WASHINGTON — President Trump ’ s escalating economic war with China highlights a challenge for Democrats hoping to unseat him in 2020: They’ll have a hard time being tougher on trade than he is . For years

Trump promised to cut taxes, after all, an expected boon to corporations. In his victory speech, Trump said, “We have a great economic plan,” promising , “we will double our growth President Trump was unambiguous that jobs would be the central focus of his presidency, saying in a press conference

“We’re going to cut corporate taxes, which will bring huge amounts of jobs back to the United States. We’re going to get to 15 percent, and we’re going to bring a lot of cash back to the U.S.,” Mr. Mnuchin said.

Mr. Mnuchin and Mr. Ross suggested that the plans would not widen the budget deficit thanks to “dynamic scoring,” or forecasts that assume tax cuts will release much faster economic growth and therefore pay for themselves.

But the Trump tax cuts would need to unleash far faster growth than the historical record suggests is likely to avoid rapidly increasing the budget deficit. The Tax Foundation’s analysis of the September Trump campaign plan found that even with dynamic scoring, the plan would reduce federal revenue by $2.6 trillion to $3.9 trillion over the next decade, which absent spending cuts would enlarge the deficit by up to one-third over levels the Congressional Budget Office projects.

And the Trump nominees stuck with a bullish forecast for long-term growth. “Our No. 1 priority is going to be the economy, get back to 3 to 4 percent growth,” Mr. Mnuchin told reporters gathered at Trump Tower in Manhattan on Wednesday. “We believe that’s very sustainable.”

It is true that economic growth averaged around 3.5 percent a year in the second half of the 20th century, before falling to around 2 percent a year in the last 15 years. In trying to achieve that goal, though, the Trump administration will face significant demographic headwinds.

CIA's Brennan says tearing up Iran deal would be 'folly'

  CIA's Brennan says tearing up Iran deal would be 'folly' Outgoing CIA Director John Brennan has said it would be the "height of folly" for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to tear up Washington's deal with Tehran because it would make it more likely that Iran and others would acquire nuclear weapons. "It could lead to a weapons program inside of Iran that could lead other states in the region to embark on their own programs," Brennan said in an interview with the BBC aired on Wednesday."So I think it would be the height of folly if the next administration were to tear up that agreement.

According to reports, Trump ' s team is considering a 5% tariff across the board. Citi chief economist Willem Buiter projected these policies could lead to a 1 This could imply that in order to keep inflation controlled, they expect to dampen economic growth. All in all, it would be great if the US hit 4% GDP

Mr Trump ’ s thirteen-strong team of economic advisers, announced on Friday, is packed full of rich businessmen (and only men). The result of Mr Trump ’ s choice of advisors is that his economic policy remains unpredictable, because his promises are detached from economic reality.

The speedy growth of the last century was helped along by the enormous baby boom generation entering the work force, and more women joining the ranks of the working. Now, the baby boom is retiring and the proportion of women working is stable.

For those reasons, the Congressional Budget Office projects that the United States labor force will grow by 0.6 percent a year over the next decade. By contrast, from 1949 to 2000 it rose by an average of 1.7 percent a year.

Another complication to the Trump team’s predictions? Mr. Trump has promised tight controls on immigration, the one lever that could increase work force growth.

To achieve the economic strength that the Trump administration is aiming for, either something will need to change existing demographic trends, such as higher immigration levels or would-be retirees working longer, or American businesses will need to find ways to become sharply more productive than they have been in recent years.

In other words, as the Trump economic team forms and tries to turn bold campaign promises into policy reality, it may find that the biggest limit of all is economic math.

Get politics and Washington news updates via Facebook, Twitter and in the Morning Briefing newsletter.

Trump offers Goldman Sachs President Gary Cohn directorship of National Economic Council .
Trump offers Goldman Sachs President Gary Cohn directorship of National Economic CouncilCohn, Goldman's president and chief operating officer, has been offered the directorship of the National Economic Council and assistant to the president for economic policy, the sources said. It is unclear if Cohn will accept the post, but he reportedly had discussions late last month about leaving Goldman.

—   Share news in the SOC. Networks

Topical videos:

usr: 1
This is interesting!