Politics Marco Rubio Chances of Losing to Val Demings With 3 Months to Midterm: Poll
Poll flips script: Voters upset about Roe reversal less likely to vote
Those who disagree with the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade are now less likely to vote in November compared to earlier predictions that indicated the decision would mobilize voters, particularly those in the Democratic Party, in the midterm elections. Only 55% of voters who believe abortion should be legal nationwide said they were likely to vote in November, according to a recent poll by the Washington Post and Schar School. That’s a drop from polling in June before the Supreme Court decision was announced, when 60% of voters said they’d be more motivated to vote if Roe was reversed.
With three months until November's anticipated midterm elections, a new poll shows that U.S.candidates and are neck and neck in their Florida race.
A copy of the poll results from progressive groups Florida Watch and Progress Florida, which was dated August 3 and shared online Monday by media platform Florida Politics, showed that Rubio and Demings were tied at 45 percent. The results showed that Demings, a Democrat who serves in the U.S. House representing Florida's 10th congressional district, is competitive with the incumbent Rubio despite roughly one-third of respondents, 34 percent, saying that they cannot rate her on a favorability scale. Another 36 percent rated her as favorable, while 30 percent rated her as unfavorable,
Are Democrats Turning Around Their Dire Midterm Prospects?
There have been some good recent signs for the party, but they may not last or matter come November.Other encouraging indicators are less subjective. The generic congressional ballot, a polling question simply asking voters which party they want to control Congress, and the most predictive data point for actual midterm results in the past, is now showing a modest Republican lead all but disappearing (the GOP lead is at 0.2 percent in the FiveThirtyEight averages and 0.9 percent at RealClearPolitics). There’s even been a very recent slight upward bounce in Joe Biden’s job approval rating, which has been sinking slowly but inexorably throughout 2022.
For Rubio, who is running for reelection for the U.S. Senate position he has held since 2011, 43 percent of respondents rated him as favorable, while 52 percent rated him as unfavorable. Overall,and were tied at 46 percent on the "statewide generic ballot," according to the poll.
November'sare critical for both political parties as Republicans look to take congressional majorities and Democrats look to widen their presence in both chambers. A Demings victory over Rubio would be a huge win for Senate Democrats frustrated by moderate party members and , whose opposition to filibuster reform is in contrast to Demings' support for the measure.
Full transcript of "Face the Nation" on July 31, 2022
On this "Face the Nation" broadcast, Sens. Joe Manchin and Pat Toomey joined John Dickerson.Click here to browse full transcripts of "Face the Nation.
The poll was "weighted to reflect what would be the most pro-Republican electorate in recent history," and that the sample was 47 percent Republican and 44 percent Democrat by party identification.
"I'm tied with Marco Rubio 45-45. Floridians see him for who he is: a career politician and a weak leader," Demings said of the Florida Watch and Progress Florida poll findings on Monday. "When Florida needs him, he doesn't show up. We can win this race."
Voter registration data from the Florida Department of Elections showed that the number of active registered Republican voters in the state has risen since 2021. Of the 14,256,184 registered Florida voters in 2022, 5,157,343 were Republican and 4,955,022 were Democrats as of June 30.
The data shows that registered Democrats in Florida last outnumbered Republicans in 2020, with 5,315,954 compared to the GOP's 5,218,739. But the parties flipped the next year, when there were 5,080,697 registered Democrats and 5,123,799 registered Republicans.
Stacey Abrams' Chances of Beating Kemp With 100 Days to Midterm: Polls
The Democratic challenger appears to be facing an uphill battle in her Georgia rematch against the Republican incumbent.Abrams previously served as the minority leader of Georgia's House of Representatives, and in 2018 she faced off against Kemp, the state's former secretary of state, in a close gubernatorial contest. The Republican ultimately won with about 50.2 percent of the vote, compared with the 48.8 percent won by Abrams. The Democrat lost by a margin of just under 55,000 votes.
A release shared with Newsweek by Demings' campaign noted the new polling while also highlighting what it said was a "coordinated ad buy" from the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) for Rubio's campaign. The release linked to a tweet from Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch on Monday that included a screenshot from ad tracking company Ad Impact of a spending alert referencing the NRSC and Rubio.
"As new polling shows that Chief Demings' momentum is only growing stronger, Marco Rubio is desperate to save his failing campaign, once again calling in his friends at the NRSC," Christian Slater, the communication director for Demings' campaign, said in a statement. "Floridians want a leader who will show up to fight for lower costs and safer communities, and it's clear that they're ready to send Chief Demings to the U.S. Senate in November."
Center Street PAC, which describes itself as a "nonpartisan political action committee focused on promoting rational governance and combating extremism," found in a poll released in July that Rubio was leading with 45 percent to 40 percent for Demings.
Democrats Beat Republicans for Control of Congress in 4 Polls in Past Week
Analysts generally predict that the GOP will win big in the November midterm, but recent polls suggest more voters want Democrats to control Congress.Recent historical precedent shows that the party of the president in the White House generally loses House and Senate seats in the midterm of the president's first term. Democrats control both legislative chambers with slim majorities, meaning even just a few losses could shift control of Congress to Republicans. Meanwhile, polls consistently show President Joe Biden's approval rating at historic lows, which many see as a bad sign for Democrats' chances of winning in November.
Newsweek reached out to Rubio's campaign for comment.
Update 8/8/22, 4:35 p.m. ET: This story was updated with a statement from Demings' campaign.
Wisconsin GOP leader Vos fires 2020 election investigator .
MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin’s Republican Assembly leader on Friday ended a 14-month, taxpayer-funded inquiry into the 2020 election by firing his hand-picked investigator. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos' firing of Michael Gableman came just three days after the lawmaker narrowly survived a primary challenge from an opponent endorsed by former President Donald Trump and Gableman. While Gableman found no evidence of widespread fraud during his inquiry, he had joined Trump in calling for lawmakers to consider decertifying the 2020 election — something Vos and legal experts say is unconstitutional and impossible.