Technology Inflation: Rising consumer prices: The wallets are still "well filled"

10:09  13 july  2021
10:09  13 july  2021 Source:   wiwo.de

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of the consumer should become the driving force of the upswing. But what happens with the consumption of the Germans, when inflation increases?

Die Kauflaune der Verbraucher steigt wieder. © dpa The commercial mood of consumers rises again.

for Rolf Bürkl is clear: "We leave the lockdown more and more behind us," says the consumer expert of the Nuremberg Market Research Institute GfK. This is also reflected in the mood of consumers: For the consumer climate, the Institute for July predicts a value of minus 0.3 points - the highest value since the summer 2020. In June of last year, the value was still at minus 6.9 points .

"The mood of consumers is optimistic," says Bürkl. Economic colleague Timo Wollershäuser, economic conveyer of the Münchnerifo Institute, is safe: "Consumption is the supporting pillar of recovery in Germany."

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But there is a factor that could brake the consumption boom expected by many experts in the second half of experts - the Inflation rising for months. On the 29th of July, the Federal Statistical Office issues a first estimate for the month of July, and analysts then expect a renewed increase. In June, the inflation rate was 2.3 percent after preliminary calculations at 2.3 percent, after it had been located in December at minus 0.3 percentage points. The statistical office wants to publish the final value for the past month today on Tuesday.

Timo Wohlmershäuser, economic transit of the Münchnerifo Institute, calculates that the inflation rate driven by special effects - in October or November will even rise to more than four percent. Only 2022 inflation will then go back to about two percent.

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An increasing inflation rate has a negative effect on consumer mood, says consumer expert Bürkl. This showed the experiences of the past 30 years. However, "the financial reserves for many consumers are so high that the pain threshold is higher at rising prices," the consumption expert believes.

Because people in Germany have saved last year as the world champions - mostly necessary. Travel fell, shops and restaurants were allowed to offer their service for weeks only limited. Bürkl: "The wallets are well filled".

Similarly, if IFO Economic Wollershäuser sees: "If wages do not keep up with the prices, we lose purchasing power - and if prices rise strongly for a long period of time than wages, that will burden the consumption." This effect is " Significantly lower than the positive consumption effect due to the overreparitation of households accumulated in Coronaziten. There are huge upholding effects. "

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According to calculations of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the cash assets of private households in Germany was at the end of 2020 on the record value of almost seven trillion euros - an increase of almost seven percent compared to the end of 2019.

the savings rate climbed during Lockdown to more than 20 percent, in the first quarter of 2021, it was 23.2 percent, according to the Federal Statistical Office. That means: From 100 euros available income, households put 23 euros on the high edge. For comparison: In 2019, the quota was 10.9 percent. Therefore,

Bürkl does not expect that inflation sustainably spoils the dealers on the dealers - 2022 will probably continue to "gain consumption".

More about: Fear of the delta variant, exploding prizes, weakening stocks, decreasing orders: The risks for the economy rise again. How stable is our upswing?

Inflation rate scratches at the four-percent mark .
Germany's consumer must cope with a further price increase. With 3.9 percent in August in August, the inflation rate in Europe's largest economy scratches for the first time for almost 30 years at the four-percent mark. © Fabian Sommer / DPA High prices for energy drive inflation in Germany upwards. from July On August 2021, the level of consumer prices stagnated, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Monday on the basis of preliminary calculations.

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