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Sport College Football Playoff projection: Alabama's chances still high after LSU loss

20:06  12 november  2019
20:06  12 november  2019 Source:   ftw.usatoday.com

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If you thought Alabama’s Week 11 loss to LSU on Saturday would severely damage the Crimson Tide’s chance of making the College Football Playoff this year, we have some bad news.

Although it did take a sizable hit, Alabama still has a 40 percent chance to make the playoff but only a nine percent chance to win it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Those numbers plunged from last week, when the team had a 72 and 22 percent chance, respectively, but the Crimson Tide are still No. 4 on this list.

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Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor is an algorithm that considers factors like strength of schedule, losses, eventual conference championships, the Football Power Index and the selection committee’s past behavior to determine the top teams’ playoff chances. That last one seems like it’s having a notably impact on these numbers because Alabama has been invited to the playoff previously without winning the SEC championship game, which it won’t play in this year thanks to LSU.

These numbers are assuming the Crimson Tide win out just like they’re expected to. The FPI gives them a 56.4 percent chance to win out as they close the regular season with games against Mississippi State, Western Carolina and Auburn. Alabama does not have a win against a currently ranked team, but with a 64.8 percent chance to beat Auburn at the end of the month, the Playoff Predictor anticipates a win there being enough for a strong playoff push.

College football odds, lines, schedule for Week 11: Top-ranked LSU opens as a touchdown underdog at Alabama

  College football odds, lines, schedule for Week 11: Top-ranked LSU opens as a touchdown underdog at Alabama Penn State is favored on the road at Minnesota in the other battle of unbeatens this weekOct 26, 2019; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Ed Orgeron celebrates with players after defeating the Auburn Tigers 23-20 at Tiger Stadium.

With that key win over Alabama, LSU’s chances have obviously skyrocketed. The Tigers’ chance to make the playoff is up to 87 percent from 56 percent last week, while their title chance increased to 17 percent from 10 percent. Still seems a little low, right? That’s probably because the Playoff Predictor is hugely favoring Ohio State.

The Buckeyes still have the best chance to do everything. Their shot to make the playoff keeps getting closer and closer to 100 percent and is up to 89 percent from 85 last week. Their chance to win the national championship is also up four points to 40 percent this week. With Penn State’s loss to Minnesota this week, the Nittany Lions are clearly beatable, so Ohio State is favored to beat them in a couple weeks (and win the Big Ten) even more now.

And don’t forget about Clemson. The defending national champs are No. 3 with an 82 percent chance to make the playoff and a 23 percent chance to win it all again — a number second to only Ohio State. They had a 74 percent chance to make the playoff and a 19 percent chance to have back-to-back titles following Week 10. The Tigers have a significantly lower strength of schedule than the other teams in the top six, but they’re also massively favored to win out and finish another season undefeated.

Ohio State, LSU top initial College Football Playoff rankings; Clemson at No. 5

  Ohio State, LSU top initial College Football Playoff rankings; Clemson at No. 5 Joe Burrow and LSU are ranked No. 2 heading into their trip to face No. 3 Alabama.It is the first time in 25 edition’s of the committee’s rankings that Clemson has not been in the top four.

As the regular season winds down, there’s almost no room for error for these top-4 teams (or room for another one for Alabama) because Oregon and Georgia are just waiting to make a move if they keep winning. Here’s a look at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list going into Week 12.

1. Ohio State (9-0)

Playoff: 89 percent

Win championship: 40 percent

2. LSU (9-0)

Playoff: 87 percent

Win championship: 17 percent

3. Clemson (10-0)

Playoff: 82 percent

Win championship: 23 percent

4. Alabama (8-1)

Playoff: 40 percent

Win championship: 9 percent

5. Oregon (8-1)

Playoff: 32 percent

Win championship: 3 percent

6. Georgia (8-1)

Playoff: 25 percent

Win championship: 3 percent

7. Oklahoma (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent

Win championship: 1 percent

8. Penn State (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent

Win championship: 2 percent

9. Utah (8-1)

Playoff: 7 percent

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Auburn (7-2)

Playoff: 5 percent

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

11. Baylor (9-0)

Playoff: 5 percent

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

12. Minnesota (9-0)

Playoff: 4 percent

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

13. Florida (7-2)

Playoff: 2 percent

College Football Playoff picture: 4 in, 2 out, 5 to watch

  College Football Playoff picture: 4 in, 2 out, 5 to watch Sporting News takes a look at the College Football Playoff picture heading into Week 12 of the season.There's plenty of time to flesh out the final top 25, but there will definitely be movement in the Week 12 CFP rankings after No. 2 LSU beat No. 3 Alabama 46-41 and No. 4 Penn State fell to No. 17 Minnesota 31-26 on Saturday in a pair of 8-0 showdowns. There are three weeks left in the regular season, and 11 Power 5 teams remaining with one loss or fewer.

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

The remaining teams on the Playoff Predictor list, including Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Michigan, all have a less than one percent chance to make the playoff. See the full list here.

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