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Sport College Football Playoff projection: Alabama's chances still high after LSU loss

20:06  12 november  2019
20:06  12 november  2019 Source:   ftw.usatoday.com

Why Alabama might want to sit Tua Tagovailoa against LSU

  Why Alabama might want to sit Tua Tagovailoa against LSU Even if Alabama loses to LSU on November 9, its rep might be enough for the Tide to make the College Football Playoff, Michael Weinreb writes.In retrospect, that game felt like the culmination of the pre-playoff era: Two months later, the same teams met in the BCS National Championship game. Alabama won, 21-0. In this way, we learned that a sport that emphasizes the importance of the regular season -- that literally sells itself on the mantra of “Every Game Counts” -- had sold us a bill of goods.

If you thought Alabama’s Week 11 loss to LSU on Saturday would severely damage the Crimson Tide’s chance of making the College Football Playoff this year, we have some bad news.

Although it did take a sizable hit, Alabama still has a 40 percent chance to make the playoff but only a nine percent chance to win it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Those numbers plunged from last week, when the team had a 72 and 22 percent chance, respectively, but the Crimson Tide are still No. 4 on this list.

College football odds, lines, schedule for Week 11: Top-ranked LSU opens as a touchdown underdog at Alabama

  College football odds, lines, schedule for Week 11: Top-ranked LSU opens as a touchdown underdog at Alabama Penn State is favored on the road at Minnesota in the other battle of unbeatens this weekOct 26, 2019; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Ed Orgeron celebrates with players after defeating the Auburn Tigers 23-20 at Tiger Stadium.

Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor is an algorithm that considers factors like strength of schedule, losses, eventual conference championships, the Football Power Index and the selection committee’s past behavior to determine the top teams’ playoff chances. That last one seems like it’s having a notably impact on these numbers because Alabama has been invited to the playoff previously without winning the SEC championship game, which it won’t play in this year thanks to LSU.

These numbers are assuming the Crimson Tide win out just like they’re expected to. The FPI gives them a 56.4 percent chance to win out as they close the regular season with games against Mississippi State, Western Carolina and Auburn. Alabama does not have a win against a currently ranked team, but with a 64.8 percent chance to beat Auburn at the end of the month, the Playoff Predictor anticipates a win there being enough for a strong playoff push.

College Football Playoff: Rankings put wet blanket on Alabama-LSU 'Game of the Century'

  College Football Playoff: Rankings put wet blanket on Alabama-LSU 'Game of the Century' Based on the first CFP ranking, it's clear some of the committee took issue with the Crimson Tide's overall lack of quality wins to this point.The 13-member playoff committee did manage to pick Alabama's upcoming opponent, LSU (8-0, 4-0 SEC), at No. 2 in its first rankings of the season, behind fellow undefeated Ohio State (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) at No. 1. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0 SEC) remained in the current Playoff field at No. 3, ahead of fourth-place Penn State (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten). Defending national champion Clemson (9-0, 6-0 ACC) was the first-out at No. 5, with Georgia (7-1, 4-1 SEC) rounding out the coveted Top 6.

With that key win over Alabama, LSU’s chances have obviously skyrocketed. The Tigers’ chance to make the playoff is up to 87 percent from 56 percent last week, while their title chance increased to 17 percent from 10 percent. Still seems a little low, right? That’s probably because the Playoff Predictor is hugely favoring Ohio State.

The Buckeyes still have the best chance to do everything. Their shot to make the playoff keeps getting closer and closer to 100 percent and is up to 89 percent from 85 last week. Their chance to win the national championship is also up four points to 40 percent this week. With Penn State’s loss to Minnesota this week, the Nittany Lions are clearly beatable, so Ohio State is favored to beat them in a couple weeks (and win the Big Ten) even more now.

And don’t forget about Clemson. The defending national champs are No. 3 with an 82 percent chance to make the playoff and a 23 percent chance to win it all again — a number second to only Ohio State. They had a 74 percent chance to make the playoff and a 19 percent chance to have back-to-back titles following Week 10. The Tigers have a significantly lower strength of schedule than the other teams in the top six, but they’re also massively favored to win out and finish another season undefeated.

Why Alabama must beat LSU to make College Football Playoff

  Why Alabama must beat LSU to make College Football Playoff Why Alabama must beat LSU to make College Football PlayoffOnly twice was Alabama unbeaten when the playoff committee selected it to the four-team field. The three other times, it had a loss. In 2017, the Tide didn’t even win the SEC West and still got picked at 11-1.

As the regular season winds down, there’s almost no room for error for these top-4 teams (or room for another one for Alabama) because Oregon and Georgia are just waiting to make a move if they keep winning. Here’s a look at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list going into Week 12.

1. Ohio State (9-0)

Playoff: 89 percent

Win championship: 40 percent

2. LSU (9-0)

Playoff: 87 percent

Win championship: 17 percent

3. Clemson (10-0)

Playoff: 82 percent

Win championship: 23 percent

4. Alabama (8-1)

Playoff: 40 percent

Win championship: 9 percent

5. Oregon (8-1)

Playoff: 32 percent

Win championship: 3 percent

6. Georgia (8-1)

Playoff: 25 percent

Win championship: 3 percent

7. Oklahoma (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent

Win championship: 1 percent

8. Penn State (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent

Win championship: 2 percent

9. Utah (8-1)

Playoff: 7 percent

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Auburn (7-2)

Playoff: 5 percent

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

11. Baylor (9-0)

Playoff: 5 percent

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

12. Minnesota (9-0)

Playoff: 4 percent

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

13. Florida (7-2)

Playoff: 2 percent

LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson control path to College Football Playoff, but who else does too?

  LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson control path to College Football Playoff, but who else does too? After a rather eventful day around the college football world, the big question is how did it all impact the College Football Playoff race. You would think that two of the top four teams falling on the first Saturday since the initial release of the College Football Playoff rankings would have a dramatic effect on Read more The post LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson control path to College Football Playoff, but who else does too? appeared first on The Comeback.

Win championship: Less than 1 percent

The remaining teams on the Playoff Predictor list, including Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Michigan, all have a less than one percent chance to make the playoff. See the full list here.

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Can Alabama make the College Football Playoff without Tua Tagovailoa? .
Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending injury, which means Alabama has to turn to backup Mac Jones to close out the season.Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was carted off the field with a hip injury in the second quarter of the Crimson Tide's blowout win over Mississippi State on Saturday. The Heisman Trophy candidate had successful surgery Monday, and "he's in good spirits and he's doing well," coach Nick Saban told reporters Wednesday.

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