The Action Network: Best prop-betting values for Michigan-2
The Action Network specializes in providing sports betting insights/analytics and is a content partner with NASCAR. Check out more NASCAR betting analysis here. As we saw in yesterday’s NASCAR Cup Series race, Michigan International Speedway’s smooth surface results in very little tire wear. This, in turn, allows crew chiefs the opportunity to roll the dice […]This, in turn, allows crew chiefs the opportunity to roll the dice on tire and pit strategy in order to leapfrog cars ahead and try to steal that all-important track position.
© Jared C. Tilton Getty Images The Action Network: Two Kurt Busch wagers highlight three prop bets for New Hampshire The Action Network specializes in providing sports betting insights/analytics and is a content partner with NASCAR.
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I’m not overly enthusiastic about betting outright winners for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Yes, I do have a handful of bets I’m making that I still think provide edges, but I’m more bullish on prop-betting opportunities for New Hampshire, specifically top-five and top-10 finish markets.
Kyle Busch clips teammate Martin Truex Jr. in multi-car crash at Texas
The beginning of the final stage got off to an eventful start in Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 NASCAR Cup Series race at Texas Motor Speedway. Shortly following the restart on Lap 218 of 334, race leader Ryan Blaney got loose racing through Turn 4, causing the field behind him to stack up. As drivers […]RELATED: Live leaderboard
In fact, there’s one driver I’m targeting as much as I can, including two separate prop bets.
Let’s look at the props I’m betting for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, including the driver I’m backing for a top-five and a top-10 finish.
I’ll be sure to post any additional bets I make for Sunday’s race on Twitter (@PJWalsh24).
NASCAR at New Hampshire Odds, Betting Picks
*Odds as of Saturday at 10 a.m. ET
Kurt Busch (+400) for a Top-5 Finish; (+105) for a Top-10 Finish
Not only am I on Busch to win at 31-1 odds, but I’m also completing the trifecta with bets to finish in the top five and the top 10.
It’s always a risk putting all of one’s eggs in the same proverbial betting basket, but in this case, I think the gamble is warranted.
In 2018, Busch led the most laps, ran the most fast laps and had the second-best driver rating, which is significant because the current higher-horsepower, lower-downforce short-track package that teams will race on Sunday is much more similar to that event that what was used last season.
Brad Keselowski wins NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire
Brad Keselowski won Sunday‘s NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, besting Denny Hamlin to the finish line by 1.647 seconds and leading the final 81 circuits of the 318.46-mile event. The victory marked Keselowski‘s third of the 2020 season. His No. 2 Team Penske Ford led 184 of the 301 laps at […]RELATED: Unofficial results
Busch did drive for a different team (Stewart-Haas Racing) two years ago, but his sixth-place finish at Phoenix, another flat, one-mile circuit earlier this season gives me confidence that Chip Ganassi Racing can give him a fast race car at this style of track.
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Christopher Bell (+210) for a Top-10 Finish
Bell did not do himself any favors last week as his 23rd-place finish knocked the No. 95 Toyota back out of the top 24 in owner points, resulting in a 35th-place starting position after Thursday’s qualifying draw. Yikes.
However, that’s likely a large reason why this price is so good for a driver who has owned New Hampshire in the Xfinity and Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series.
In two Gander Trucks events at this track, Bell has a win and a second-place finish. Somehow, he was even better after graduating to the Xfinity Series, winning both of his starts at New Hampshire while leading 279 (69.8%) of 400 total laps across both races. That’s pretty good.
2020 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Vegas picks, odds, predictions: NASCAR expert fading Truex Jr at New Hampshire
Micah Roberts pioneered wagering on NASCAR races and has nailed three Cup Series races this season.Jimmie Johnson crossed the overtime line just before the final caution came out.
And finally, Bell’s team, Leavine Family Racing, has an alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing, which has won five of the past eight races at New Hampshire, so his car should be plenty fast enough to pick through the field and challenge for a top 10.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, CO, IN and WV only.]
Gallery: Fantasy Fastlane: Get your roster claws on Keselowski for New Hampshire (NASCAR)
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Penn National Gaming.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won three of the last five races at New Hampshire, including the last two at the \"Magic Mile.\" The question with Harvick always revolves around uses this time of year. I'd save at least one use for Michigan and wouldn't worry about either Daytona race with him. At two uses, I like Dover a little more. At three uses, turn him loose.
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has three wins at New Hampshire and holds the best average finish - 9.9 – among drivers entered in Sunday's race. He is also fresh off his fifth win of 2020 at Kansas. Why is he not a slam-dunk play? In three races with the 2020 short-track rules package, Hamlin has no top 10s and an average of 20.7 points.
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Has this type of consistent season flown more under the radar in recent history? Keselowski is enjoying one of his best seasons to date. With the exception of Daytona, he has scored at least 28 points in every race. In addition to a win at Bristol, he has the third-most points with this rules package.
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three Cup wins at New Hampshire, and this is his best track left on the regular-season schedule. With the short-track package, Busch has the seventh-most points in those races this year – an average of 34.3. This seems like the prime spot to play \"Rowdy\" with Dover and Michigan (based on recent runs there) as other plays.
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Truex has seemingly done everything but win at New Hampshire in recent years. He has six top-eight finishes in his last seven races there and is the most recent winner with the 2020 short-track package (last run at Martinsville). With no 1.5-milers left on the schedule, this is a great spot to play him based on past strong runs.
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Fastlane forecast: In the last two races at New Hampshire, Blaney has the fifth-most points and two top-seven finishes. His short-track stats in 2020 are very up and down. Two crashes at tracks where he had speed – Phoenix and Bristol – and a runner-up finish at Martinsville. I'd rank his Penske teammates ahead of him for this one.
Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Almirola continues to stay hot as he now has eight straight top 10s and an average of 39 points over that stretch – the most among all drivers. His two races at New Hampshire with SHR have seen him average 42.5 points. The blemish on his resume? His 2020 short-track results leave him with the 18th-most points.
Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has two top fives and an average of 34.7 points in the three races with the 2020 short-track rules package. That point average places him sixth – ahead of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney. New Hampshire is a mixed bag for him with two wins but just nine top 10s in 26 starts.
SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Byron has finished in the top 10 in all three races where this year's short-track rules package has been used. He has the ninth-most points in those races – an average of 31.3 points. Those top 10s make up half of his total for the 2020 season. For a driver in the thick of the playoff bubble, he should be looking to maximize his points day.
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Here's another driver in need of a good points day to boost his playoff stock. DiBenedetto nabbed a top-five finish at New Hampshire last year. His results with this rules-package have seen two races with more than 30 points. Penske's solid history at this track also works in his favor.
SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Short-track racing fits Newman's grind-it-out, hard-to-pass style to a tee. He has an average finish of 13.5 with this rules package this year. He also has the sixth-most points in the last two races at the \"Magic Mile\" – both top-seven finishes for the veteran driver. He's not flashy, but three wins and 20 top 10s here show he can get it done at this venue.
STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has just one top 10 in six starts at New Hampshire, and the track ranks in the lower third in his average finishes at each track. Add in that he has just two races of more than 30 points in the last seven, only one top 10 in that stretch and then Michigan, Dover and the Daytona road course line up as better uses. He's an avoid for me.
STAY AWAY FROM: Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: This year's short-track stats say play Johnson – he has the fifth-best point total with an average of 35 points. His recent New Hampshire stats land more in the middle with the ninth-most points in the last six races there. His recent 2020 stats say stay far away with only one race of over 25 points in his last seven. I'm inclined to raise the latter point above all else.
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, Denny Hamlin; Garage: Martin Truex Jr.Nearly made it: William Byron, Clint Bowyer and Christopher Bell.Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Make Your Red Sox-Orioles Predictions Now To Win With NESN Games .
Your crystal ball might help you win some swag. The Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday… Read More »The Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park in the second game of their season-opening series. The Red Sox walloped the Orioles 13-2 on Friday night and will look to produce a similar performance and result to improve their record to 2-0.