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Sport NASCAR Playoffs at Bristol odds, predictions: Surprising 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks by proven model

03:45  20 september  2020
03:45  20 september  2020 Source:   cbssports.com

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Clint Bowyer is currently the last driver in, while William Byron is the first out as the Round of 16 in the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs concludes on Saturday evening in Bristol. The 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race takes the green flag at 7:30 p.m. ET, and only a dozen drivers will move on in the playoffs. That should make for some intriguing racing as a full 40-driver field takes the track at Bristol Motor Speedway with the season hanging on the line for several still involved in the playoff chase.

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Denny Hamlin is third overall in the standings with 2,122 points and he's listed as 5-1 favorite in the 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds from William Hill. Points leader Kevin Harvick (6-1) and Brad Keselowski (7-1), who won at Bristol in May, are among the other top 2020 NASCAR at Bristol contenders to watch. Before locking your 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks or entering a NASCAR DFS tournament, be sure to see the latest 2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Bristol predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

NASCAR playoffs 2020: Schedule, lineup, TV and more for Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol

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The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at both Darlington races. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May.

The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and also identified four top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol. At the Daytona road course, the model called Chase Elliott's win and nailed three of the top four drivers. Anybody who has follow the model has seen some huge returns.

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Now, the model simulated the NASCAR at Bristol race on Saturday, Sept. 19, 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race predictions

One surprise: The model is high on Kurt Busch, even though he's a huge 25-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds from William Hill. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The elder Busch brother ranks 11th in the standings, just two positions clear of the cut line following this week.

He should be racing with some urgency, and this is a track he's historically been successful at. Busch has a No. 14.15 all-time average finish position at Bristol and he's finished ninth or better in five of his last six races at this track. That span includes a win in 2018 and a runner-up performance in 2019. Despite his strong track record, he's still getting longer NASCAR odds this week, making him a smart choice for 2020 NASCAR at Bristol bets on Saturday.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the favorites at 11-2, stumbles big time and doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded field. Even though Elliott won the All-Star Race at Bristol this year, the model doesn't give too much weight to that performance due to the different format that night.

Three Joe Gibbs Racing cars to start from the rear at Bristol

  Three Joe Gibbs Racing cars to start from the rear at Bristol Three Joe Gibbs Racing cars will start from the rear for the start of Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Bristol Night Race (7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). The No. 11 of Denny Hamlin, the No. 18 of Kyle Busch and the No. 20 of Erik Jones all failed pre-race technical […]The drop to the rear carries a potential impact of Busch — the reigning series champion — and his hopes of advancing on to the Round of 12. He enters the race +18 on the cutline and ninth in the standings entering tonight’s race. Busch did start from the rear at Richmond and finished sixth last weekend. Hamlin is already locked in to the Round of 12 while Jones is not part of this year’s playoff field.

In the points race at Bristol in May, Elliott settled for a disappointing 22nd place. He's finished outside the top 10 in four of the past six points races at Bristol. With no career wins or runner-ups at Bristol, Elliott is one of the NASCAR at Bristol favorites to fade on Saturday.

How to make 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins Saturday's 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.

2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Bristol odds (via William Hill)

Denny Hamlin 5-1

Chase Elliott 11-2

Kyle Busch 6-1

Kevin Harvick 6-1

Brad Keselowski 7-1

Joey Logano 8-1

Ryan Blaney 9-1

Martin Truex Jr. 12-1

Kurt Busch 25-1

Clint Bowyer 30-1

Erik Jones 30-1

Jimmie Johnson 30-1

Alex Bowman 40-1

William Byron 50-1

Tyler Reddick 60-1

Matt DiBenedetto 60-1

Austin Dillon 60-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 75-1

Christopher Bell 75-1

Matt Kenseth 100-1

Ryan Newman 125-1

Cole Custer 125-1

Chris Buescher 300-1

Bubba Wallace 300-1

John Hunter Nemechek 1000-1

Michael McDowell 1500-1

Ty Dillon 1500-1

Ryan Preece 1500-1

Daniel Suarez 2000-1

JJ Yeley 5000-1

James Davison 5000-1

Reed Sorenson 5000-1

Joey Gase 5000-1

Quin Houff 5000-1

BJ McLeod 5000-1

Josh Bilicki 5000-1

Corey Lajoie 5000-1

Brennan Poole 5000-1

Timmy Hill 5000-1

Report: The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series schedule includes a dirt race at Bristol .
The coronavirus pandemic forced NASCAR to make some major changes to its 2020 schedule, and the organization seems to be embracing change for 2021, as well. The Athletic revealed the tentative 2021 Cup Series schedule in a report on Wednesday, and NASCAR has…The 2021 slate will bring the debut of several new tracks, significantly increase the amount of road course racing, and – in a move that is sure to be polarizing – include a dirt race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

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