Sport Since summer 2020: Strong comeback of the German economy

11:35  24 november  2020
11:35  24 november  2020 Source:   ksta.de

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Germany ’s economy will shrink this quarter at more than twice the pace recorded at the height of the financial German output is expected to slump 9.8% in the April-June period, the most since records for Thanks to fiscal aid, the economists expect a strong rebound next year, with expansion of 5.8%.

The economy bounced back sharply in the third quarter, but it still is not back to its late 2019 level. The U.S. economy was stronger than expected in the third quarter, but its recovery is still lumpy and economists are divided on how long it will take to get out of the deep hole created by the pandemic.

After the crash in the Corona crisis, the German economy picked up more momentum than initially assumed. The gross domestic product (GDP) rose in the period from July to September by 8.5 percent compared to the second quarter, as the Federal Statistical Office announced in Wiesbaden on Tuesday. According to preliminary data, the authority had assumed an increase of 8.2 percent. At the end of the year, however, the recovery is likely to pause due to the partial lockdown in Germany and restrictions in many other European countries in view of the increasing number of infections.

Container am Umschlagbahnhof Ulm © dpa Container at the Ulm transshipment station

With the strong growth in the third quarter, the German economy made up for a large part of the massive decline in gross domestic product from the spring, said the Wiesbaden authority. In the second quarter of the year, GDP collapsed dramatically after large parts of public life had been shut down as a result of the corona. At the beginning of the year, economic output had already fallen compared to the previous quarter.

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The German Economic Miracle. The Economy of the United Kingdom. Its economy will get some stimulus with the 2020 Olympics keeping the investment flow strong , which is backed Germany is not just Europe's largest economy but also the strongest . On the global scale, it is the fourth-largest

The German government is undertaking an emergency program to bring back thousands of citizens stranded overseas due to the coronavirus outbreak. For them, the islands off the coast of Africa with their year-round summer climate are one of the most important sources of hope for the winter season.

Higher private spending and more exports

According to the information, the growth in the third quarter was in particular supported by higher private consumer spending (plus 10.8 percent) and a sharp rise in exports of goods and services (plus 18.1 percent). In addition, companies invested more in machines and other equipment. In contrast, there was no growth impetus from construction investments; they fell by 2.0 percent compared to the previous quarter.

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Emerging economies will rise in importance and China will have overtaken the USA to lead the list of the world's top ten largest economies by GDP. By 2020 , there will be major shifts in the world economic order in which emerging economies will become more important.

Economic growth slowed across Europe at the start of the year, with Germany seeing its pace of expansion cut in half amid weaker trade. While it sees “ strong growth” for now, the “favorable outlook is subject to several risks that are mainly to the downside over the medium term.”

In a year-on-year comparison, however, the corona crisis left deep marks. Compared to the third quarter of 2019, economic output in Europe's largest economy contracted by 3.9 percent after adjustment for prices.

According to the Bundesbank and other economists, the current restrictions on public life will put an end to the economic recovery for the time being. The gross domestic product could “stagnate or even decline” in the final quarter of 2020, according to the central bank's latest monthly report. The prospective extension of the partial lockdown in Germany beyond November increases the likelihood of a decline in GDP in the fourth quarter from the perspective of economists. However, compared to the slump in March and April, this should be “very mild,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank.

According to all forecasts, the German economy will shrink in 2020 as a whole. The “economic wise men” are assuming a decline in gross domestic product of 5.1 percent. The Council of Economic Experts is thus somewhat more optimistic than Economics Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU). The Ministry of Economics recently expected a slump of 5.5 percent. With the historical recession in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis, this would be comparable to minus 5.7 percent at the time. (dpa)

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