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Sport March Madness Bubble Tracker: Duke, Michigan State are out of projected NCAA tournament bracket

10:10  04 april  2021
10:10  04 april  2021 Source:   msn.com

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When Duke and Michigan State met in the Champion's Classic in December, the feeling was that the game would eventually matter for their NCAA tournament seeding in March.

Little did we know these prolific blue-blood programs would be fighting for their postseason fate on the NCAA bubble now.

In USA TODAY Sports' most recent bracketology, the Blue Devils (11-9, 9-7 ACC) and Spartans (13-10, 7-10 Big Ten) were the first two teams out of the projected field following weekend losses.

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Michigan State won that December showdown, and now it might be a difference-maker in the eyes of the selection committee if it remains this close on Selection Sunday. When assessing profiles, both have recent, impressive Quadrant 1 wins – Duke beating Virginia and Michigan State upending Ohio State and Illinois. Both have their résumé setbacks –  Duke has just one Quad 1 victory and a bad loss to Miami (Florida), while MSU has a non-conference strength of schedule of 272 and a 77 NET score.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo talks with guard Rocket Watts (2) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Illinois, Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich. © Carlos Osorio, AP Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo talks with guard Rocket Watts (2) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Illinois, Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich.

Which of these teams will get in? Or will both?

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They each have a few regular-season games left before their respective conference tournaments begin. Duke draws fellow bubble teams Georgia Tech (tonight) and North Carolina (Saturday) on the road, while Michigan State draws bubble team Indiana at home (tonight) and then faces projected No. 1 seed Michigan twice – first Thursday on the road and then again Sunday.

a person wearing a suit and tie standing in front of a crowd: Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski greets Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo. © Brian Spurlock, USA TODAY Sports Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski greets Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo.

If the Blue Devils win both their final games and the Spartans beat Michigan once, it'll be difficult to argue against these teams' inclusion in the NCAAs. It's crunch time.

Here's a look at conference outlooks on the updated Bubble Tracker, examining the bubble teams still sweating it out until Selection Sunday on March 14:

Conference breakdown

Breakdown data, compiled by bracketologist Shelby Mast, is updated through games as of March 2.

March Madness Bubble Tracker: Duke, Michigan State are out of projected NCAA tournament bracket

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Atlantic 10

Locks: N/A | Probable: N/A

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► St. Bonaventure (In – No. 11 seed): 13-4 (11-4) 32 NET 79 SoS 21 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Richmond, Virginia Commonwealth, Davidson
  • The Bad: Loss to Rhode Island

► Virginia Commonwealth (Out for now): 17-6 (10-4) 37 NET 41 SoS 56 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against St. Bonaventure, Utah State, Memphis, Richmond
  • The Bad: Losses to Rhode Island, George Mason

► Saint Louis (Out for now): 13-5 (5-4) 43 NET 184 SoS 249 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against St. Bonaventure, LSU, Richmond
  • The Bad: Losses to Dayton (2), LaSalle

► Richmond (Out for now): 12-7 (6-5) 64 NET 80 SoS 63 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Loyola-Chicago, St. Bonaventure, Kentucky
  • The Bad: Losses to LaSalle, Hofstra

American Athletic

Locks: Houston | Probable: N/A

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► Wichita State (In - No. 10 seed): 11-4 (9-2) 67 NET 19 SoS 22 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Win against Houston, Mississippi
  • The Bad: No bad losses

► SMU (out for now): 11-4 (7-4) 54 NET 89 SoS 282 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Dayton, Memphis
  • The Bad: Loss to Cincinnati

► Memphis (out for now): 14-6 (10-3) 59 NET 105 SoS 193 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against SMU, Saint Mary’s, Wichita State
  • The Bad: Loss to Tulsa (2)

Atlantic Coast

Locks: Virginia, Florida State, Virginia Tech | Probable: Clemson, North Carolina

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► Louisville (In – No. 10 seed): 13-5 (8-4) 47 NET 42 SoS 46 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Duke (2), Western Kentucky
  • The Bad: Loss to Miami (Florida)

► Georgia Tech (In - No. 12 seed): 13-8 (9-6) 41 NET 44 SoS 285 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Losses to Georgia State, Mercer

► Duke (Out for now): 11-9 (9-7) 58 NET 64 SoS 57 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Virginia, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Notre Dame
  • The Bad: Losses to Miami, Michigan State

► Syracuse (Out for now): 14-8 (8-7) 55 NET 88 SoS 131 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Win against Virginia Tech
  • The Bad: Losses to Pittsburgh (2)

Big East

Locks: Villanova | Probable: Creighton

► Xavier (In for now - No. 10 seed): 13-5 (6-5) 50 NET 50 SoS, 129 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Oklahoma, Toledo, St. John’s, Creighton
  • The Bad: No bad losses

► Seton Hall (In for now - No. 12 seed): 13-10 (10-7) 53 NET 51 SoS 49 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Penn State, Xavier, Connecticut, St. John’s
  • The Bad: Losses to Providence, Rhode Island, Butler

► Connecticut (In for now - No. 12 seed): 12-6 (9-6), 35 NET 85 SoS 87 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Southern California, Xavier
  • The Bad: Loss to Providence

► St. Johns (Out for now): 14-10 (8-9) 73 NET 124 SoS 239 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Villanova, Connecticut, Xavier
  • The Bad: Losses to Marquette, Butler, Georgetown, DePaul

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue | Probable: N/A

What is the lowest seed to win NCAA Tournament? Revisiting Villanova’s 1985 March Madness run

  What is the lowest seed to win NCAA Tournament? Revisiting Villanova’s 1985 March Madness run Remembering the1984-85 Villanova Wildcats, the lowest-seeded team ever to win the NCAA Tournament.Center Ed Pinckney had twice been named All-Big East. Forward Dwayne McClain was one of the most dynamic players in the country, a physical force few could contain. Junior forward Harold Pressley was a McDonald’s All-American in high school, and Villanova won a furious recruiting battle to sign him. Point guard Gary McLain was in his third year as a regular and had averaged more than five assists in his junior season.

► Rutgers (In - No. 9 seed): 13-10 (9-10) 38 NET 28 SoS 100 NonCon SoS

  • The good: Wins over Illinois, Purdue, Maryland, Indiana (2), Syracuse
  • The bad: Loss to Nebraska

► Maryland (In - No. 10 seed): 14-10 (9-9) 28 NET 4 SoS 19 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota (2), Rutgers
  • The Bad: No bad losses

► Michigan State (Out for now): 13-10 (7-10) 77 NET 137 SoS 283 NonCon SoS

  • The good: Wins over Illinois, Ohio St, Indiana, Duke, Rutgers, Penn St
  • The bad: Loss to Northwestern

► Indiana (Out for now): 12-12 (7-10) 57 NET, 45 SoS, 154 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Iowa (2), Maryland, Penn State, Stanford, Minnesota
  • The Bad: Loss to Northwestern, Michigan State

Big 12

Locks: Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia | Probable: Kansas, Oklahoma State

Bubble: N/A

Mountain West

Locks: N/A | Probable: San Diego State, Boise State

► Colorado State (In - No. 11 seed): 15-4 (13-3) 40 NET 99 SoS 191 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

► Utah State (Out for now): 15-7 (13-4) 48 NET 94 SoS 57 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against San Diego State (2), Colorado State
  • The Bad: Losses to UNLV, South Dakota State

Pac-12

Locks: USC, UCLA | Probable: Colorado

► Oregon (In - No. 10 seed): 17-5 (12-4) 36 NET 119 SoS 174 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Seton Hall, Arizona (2), Stanford (2), Colorado
  • The Bad: Losses to Washington State, Oregon State

► Stanford (Out for now): 14-11 (10-9) 63 NET 59 SoS 79 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Alabama, Arizona (2), UCLA
  • The Bad: Losses to Utah, Arizona State

SEC

Locks: Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri | Probable: Arkansas, Florida, LSU

Bubble: N/A

Mid-majors

Assume these teams do not win their conference tournament to secure the automatic bid.

Locks: Gonzaga | Probable: BYU, Loyola-Chicago

Drake (In - No. 11 seed): 22-3 (15-3) 42 NET 247 SoS 306 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Win against Loyola-Chicago
  • The Bad: Loss to Valparaiso, Bradley

► Western Kentucky (In - No. 12 seed): 17-5 (10-2) 78 NET 128 SoS 113 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins against Alabama, Marshall (2), Memphis
  • The Bad: Losses to Louisiana Tech, Charlotte

***

NCAA Tournament language explainer:

  • Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
  • Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
  • Quadrant 3 wins, losses: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
  • Quadrant 4 wins, losses: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

***

Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings also are a reference point.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his eighth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past seven March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness Bubble Tracker: Duke, Michigan State are out of projected NCAA tournament bracket

What is the lowest seed to win NCAA Tournament? Revisiting Villanova’s 1985 March Madness run .
Remembering the1984-85 Villanova Wildcats, the lowest-seeded team ever to win the NCAA Tournament.Center Ed Pinckney had twice been named All-Big East. Forward Dwayne McClain was one of the most dynamic players in the country, a physical force few could contain. Junior forward Harold Pressley was a McDonald’s All-American in high school, and Villanova won a furious recruiting battle to sign him. Point guard Gary McLain was in his third year as a regular and had averaged more than five assists in his junior season.

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