Sport It's time to bet against the Mets again, plus other top picks for Tuesday

05:00  05 may  2021
05:00  05 may  2021 Source:   cbssports.com

Ross leads Nationals to 7-1 win over Mets

  Ross leads Nationals to 7-1 win over Mets NEW YORK (AP) — Joe Ross tossed six solid innings and helped himself with an RBI single as the Washington Nationals beat the New York Mets 7-1 on Saturday. Yadiel Hernandez, a 33-year-old rookie who entered with six hits in 36 career at-bats, had two hits and two RBIs for the Nationals. Six starters had an RBI and seven players got a hit for Washington, which finished with 10 singles and no extra-base hits. Michael Conforto homered in the fourth for the Mets.Ross (2-1) allowed five hits and one walk while striking out four. The Mets threatened after Conforto’s two-out homer, but after giving up infield singles to J.D.

You just bet against the Mets every time Jacob deGrom starts for them. You see, it turns out deGrom is too good. He pitches so well that he baffles the hitters on his team, too. In three starts this season, deGrom has allowed one earned run and has 35 strikeouts in 20 innings, yet the Mets are only 1-2 in those starts. Going back to the 2018 season, when deGrom won his first Cy Young Award, the Mets are only 37-42 in his 79 starts.

Jacob deGrom is a risky -120 to strike out 10 or fewer batters on Tuesday night against the St. Louis Cardinals. deGrom never gets much run support, and he did have a rough second inning his last time out versus the Boston Red Sox. The thought process is that the Cardinals will try to work his pitch The gamble with the New York Mets ‘ ace is he had an NL-leading 13.8 K/9 rate last year. This year, it is a whopping 15.3. He takes on the Cardinals on the road, and even though their strikeout rate is just 23.5% (league average is 24.5%), deGrom will likely get close again , so this could be quite a sweat.

I really need to learn to stop tempting fate. In yesterday's newsletter, I told you about how I was still buzzing about the Bears drafting Justin Fields, and I wrote about how I wanted the Packers to trade Aaron Rodgers for his happiness with my tongue planted firmly in my cheek.

a baseball player holding a bat on a field © Provided by CBS Sports

Then the White Sox announced Luis Robertwould be out for three to four months (more on what it means from a gambling perspective down below), and all the fun got sucked out of the room for me. So I've learned an important lesson here: enjoy the good that happens to teams you care about, but don't mock the bad that's happening to others, because fate is always waiting around the corner, ready to hit you in the face with a frying pan.

Adam Schefter makes surprising admission about bombshell Aaron Rodgers story

  Adam Schefter makes surprising admission about bombshell Aaron Rodgers story Some fans are angry over Schefter’s admission, as they believe it was inappropriate for him to steal the spotlight just hours before the draft. Schefter also contradicted himself a bit. As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk notes, Schefter’s initial tweet and ensuing ESPN story about Rodgers specifically said “league and team sources told ESPN on Thursday.” That doesn’t mesh with what Schefter told Patrick.If Schefter knew definitively weeks ago that Rodgers wants out of Green Bay, it would be awfully risky for him to sit on such a huge story.

MLB DFS Plays: Tuesday 5/4. by Brad Johnson. The matchup against the Dodgers clearly isn’t ideal. Because he’ s both talented and affordable, this is still a neutral-value situation even before As above, the Mets -Cards game offers a better value/pivot if it turns out to be drier than expected. Perez is a popular DFS pick for his ability to hit for average and power without drawing many walks.

Mets vs. Cardinals Odds, Pick , Betting Prediction: Fade New York’ s Struggling Offense. Mets vs. Cardinals Odds Mets Odds +100 Cardinals Odds -118 Over/Under 8.5 Time 7:45 p.m. ET TV MLBTV Odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET. FILE - In this Monday, Feb. 25, 2019 file photo, New York Mets hitting coach Chili Davis watches from the top of the dugout steps during the fifth inning of an exhibition spring training baseball game against the Houston Astros in West Palm Beach, Fla. Hitting coach Chili Davis will keep on working remotely when the New York Mets open summer training camp Friday, July 3

Maybe the White Sox can trade for Aaron Rodgers and have him play centerfield?

Anyway, let's catch up on your daily reading.

  • Post-draft NFL Power Rankings from Power Pete Prisco.
  • What? You didn't think Ryan Wilson would already have a 2022 mock draft ready?
  • Jimmy G has spoken about the Trey Lance pick.
  • Jose Mourinho already has a new job.

Ok, so let's hope tonight's picks are all winners, and nobody gets hurt.

Player Meter: Position players, May 3-9

  Player Meter: Position players, May 3-9 A quick review of how the Mets’ position players fared over the past week.Let’s start by discussing Francisco Lindor’s breakout week. After hovering dangerously close to poop emoji territory last week, Lindor finally looks like the player the Mets paid for (with the bat, anyway; he was already the player the Mets paid for on the defensive side). Lindor put up a .286/.407/.476 slash line over 27 plate appearances this week with a 147 wRC+. His five runs scored this week lead the team. He collected six hits, five walks, and four RBIs in total. But his big moment came toward the end of the week.

" It is time for the public to see" the memo, Judge Amy Berman Jackson wrote in a searing opinion issued Tuesday . Meghan, Britain' s Duchess of Sussex, is to publish a children' s book next month titled "The Bench" about the relationship between a father and son based on her husband Prince Harry and the couple' s child Archie, the publisher said on Tuesday . The book is the latest venture by Meghan and Harry, Queen Elizabeth' s grandson, since they stepped down from royal duties and moved to Los Angeles last year with Archie, who celebrates his second birthday later this week.

In Tuesday Matches Section you will find the best soccer predictions of the day selected by our expert team. Tuesdays are dedicated to Champions League matches, which are very attractive to most bettors. Feel free to choose from most popular picks for half time bets , both teams to score and others .

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

???? The Hot Ticket

Orioles at Mariners, 10:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Mariners (-130)

: Who wants to stay up late and watch a couple of bad baseball teams with me? OK, to be fair, the Mariners are 16-14, while the Orioles are 14-15, but those records are slightly misleading and unlikely to hold up throughout the season. I do think the Mariners are the better of these two, and there is some excess value on them at this price.

Neither of these offenses is very good, but Baltimore has been especially terrible against righties like Seattle starter Justin Dunn. Baltimore's offense ranks 30th (that's last) in wOBA against righties, and it's tied for 26th in wRC+ against them. Its HR rate of 2.55% ranks 23rd. Furthermore, Seattle's bullpen has an ERA of 2.48, which is currently the best mark in baseball. It's that Seattle bullpen that has kept this team afloat, and I think it comes in handy tonight as well, helping finish off a win over Baltimore.

A mopey Mother’s Day Mets win

  A mopey Mother’s Day Mets win A nice win muted by a concerning injury.The Mets actually managed to break their habit of leaving their ace out to dry in this one, though deGrom did play a roll in getting the rally going. In the bottom of the third, James McCann led off with an opposite field single (with his mom, grandma, and twin sons on screen). deGrom followed with a picture perfect bunt that Diamondbacks third baseman Eduardo Escobar threw away, putting runners at the corners with no outs. A sacrifice fly from Francisco Lindor and an RBI single from Michael Conforto gave the Mets drove in McCann and deGrom, respectively, giving the Mets a 2-0 lead.

It is off to a profitable start in 2021, going 29-21 on top -rated MLB money-line picks through four weeks, returning over 0. Anyone following it has seen huge rewards. Now, the model has crunched the numbers for the Monday MLB schedule and posted its best bets for the evening games. The model has locked in three other MLB best bets , including another strong underdog play that returns plus money. You can see the best bets only at SportsLine . So which MLB picks should you make on Monday for a shot at a big return of almost 12-1? And which underdog do you need to be all over?

" It ' s a challenge, but this is a year that can't be about excuses," Van Wagenen said, according to Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. The two members of the Mets who tested positive have not been identified. They, as well as anyone they came into contact with as determined by the league's contact-tracing efforts, remained quarantined in Miami. The Yankees have been bystanders in two COVID-19 outbreaks. They had a series with the Phillies postponed last month following the Marlins outbreak (the Phillies most recent opponent at the time ) and now they missed a series with the Mets .

Key Trend: Seattle is 13-4 following its last 17 losses.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Sportsline expert John Bollman is 20-11 in his last 31 money line plays involving the Mariners, and he's got a money line play for tonight's game too.

???? The Picks


Mets at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Cardinals (+183) --

Don't worry, everybody; Jacob deGrom is starting tonight, and I'm here to remind you about #OperationFadeGrom. You don't have to worry about that absolute psycho Chris Bengel showing up and telling you to bet on the Mets on a night deGrom is pitching. Some people just want to see the world burn.

Anyway, you know the drill by now. When deGrom pitches, we bet against the Mets because even though deGrom is incredible, the Mets seem to hate him with the fire of a thousand suns and refuse to play well behind him. Poor Jacob enters tonight's start with an ERA of 1.75 and has struck out 41.7% of hitters he's faced. That's nuts!

What's crazier is that the Mets are somehow only 2-3 in his starts this season. This is nothing new, as the Mets are only 38-42 in deGrom's starts since 2018. That might not seem great to you, but keep in mind the Mets are always favored when he starts. The return on #OperationFadeGrom since 2018 has been roughly 23 units.

MLB Friday Night Lines: Best baseball bets, including a Yankees blowout and some AL Central upsets

  MLB Friday Night Lines: Best baseball bets, including a Yankees blowout and some AL Central upsets The Pirates are favored over the Cardinals? Time to take advantage and win some dough!I remain convinced that as the season progresses, it'll be easier to win more bets. Now, realize this comes with context behind "easier." It's never easy. For example, first base is the easiest defensive position to play in baseball, but sometimes when a person says that, we'll immediately hear something like "first base isn't easy!" in return. True. We didn't say it was easy. Easiest isn't easy. It's just not as difficult as the other eight positions. Let's keep that context of relativity in mind moving forward here. Betting on baseball is never easy.

Key Trend: The Mets are only 38-42 in deGrom starts since 2018.

⚽ Champions League

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid, Wednesday, 3 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network/Paramount+

The Pick: Chelsea (+115) --

The first match might have finished in a 1-1 draw, but it was a misleading 1-1 draw. Karim Benzema's goal was the kind of goal that few people who aren't Karim Benzema are capable of scoring, but he did. Overall, however, Madrid's attack was impotent and couldn't find a way to break through Chelsea's defending. Madrid got nine shots off, but Benzema's goal was the only one on target. Chelsea put five of its 11 shots on goal, explaining the difference in expected goals, as Chelsea won that battle 1.4-0.3.

Chelsea were the better team in nearly every area in the first match, and I don't think much will change Wednesday. It would help Madrid to get both Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane back for this match, but what kind of condition will the 35-year old Ramos be in after missing all of April with a calf injury and COVID, and Varane remains a question mark as well? I took the under in the first match, and while I don't hate it here, I think more urgency could lead to more goals being scored. It's just, unfortunately for Real Madrid, I see Chelsea scoring on them a lot more often.

Key Trend: Chelsea has won nine of its last 13 matches.

Champions League semifinal Corner Picks: Finding value in Real Madrid-Chelsea and PSG-Manchester City

  Champions League semifinal Corner Picks: Finding value in Real Madrid-Chelsea and PSG-Manchester City Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.But the downside is we only have two matches this week! My degenerate heart would like to have more to bet on, but alas, we cannot win them all. Don't worry, though; not only do I have a pick for each match, but I've offered a couple of bonus prop bets to add to the entertainment value of the week.

???? SportsLine Pick of the Day: Uncanny golf handicapper Rick Gehman releases his best bets for this week's Wells Fargo Championship at Charlotte's Quail Hollow.

???? The DFS Rundown

Building Blocks

PG: LaMelo Ball, Hornets

SG: Andrew Wiggins, Warriors

SF: Kevin Durant, Nets

PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

C: Bam Adebayo, Heat

Value Plays

PG: Delon Wright, Kings

SG: Hamidou Diallo, Pistons

SF: Cedi Osman, Cavs

PF: Marvin Bagley, Kings

C: Kevon Looney, Warriors

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.

⚾ MLB Crystal Ball

The Pick: Kansas City Royals to win AL Central (+425) -- I don't think anybody would have had the Royals in first place in the Central come the first week of May, but here we are. Clearly, given the odds listed, there aren't many who expect this to still be the case come the end of the season. I don't think it's likely, either, but at +425, it only needs to happen 19% of the time for us to make money. And I think that's possible!

We have futures out on the Twins to win the division, and even though they're currently 11-16, they still might. But I don't think the problems Minnesota has had to start the season are flukey, either, and there's no guarantee they'll make a significant improvement.

Then there's the White Sox, who lost Eloy Jimenez before the season began. On Monday, the Sox lost another young superstar in Luis Robert for at least three months, and more likely four. In other words, the team will be without two of the biggest bats in its lineup until late August at the earliest. This division suddenly looks a lot more winnable for Kansas City, and it might not need any more than 84 wins to get there.

Suns vs. Cavaliers odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, May 4 predictions from model on 97-62 roll .
SportsLine's Projection Model simulated Cavaliers vs. Suns 10,000 timesTip-off is at 7 p.m. ET in Cleveland. William Hill Sportsbook lists Phoenix as a 13-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 218.5 in the latest Suns vs. Cavaliers odds. Before making any Cavaliers vs. Suns picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

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