Sport Chelsea vs. Manchester City odds, picks, predictions for 2021 Champions League final
Manchester United vs. Liverpool: Two arrests made during fan protests outside Old Trafford
After postponing the original fixture between Manchester United and Liverpool with their protests, United fans once again voiced their opposition to the club's owners on Thursday at the rearranged fixture between the two Premier League rivals. © Christopher Furlong/Getty Images A protester holding a sign reading 'Glazers Out' stands outside Old Trafford. The match was originally scheduled for May 2 but had to be delayed after protests from fans resulted in a group making their way onto the Old Trafford pitch.
Theis fascinating on so many levels: two English heavyweights, two of the most expensive squads on the planet, Manchester City’s quest for its first-ever Champions League, two elite managers going head to head, Chelsea’s two recent wins against Man City and, of course, the best-ever American player on the biggest club stage in the world.
The books are giving the clear edge to Manchester City (anywhere from -115 to win in regulation and -250 to win the cup). They are, after all, the reigning English Premier League champions and considered by many to be the best team in the world today. After their poor start to the season and their recent stumbles, Chelsea simply don’t have the same standing. But that’s not to say this won’t be a tightly contested final.
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Chelsea have had to grind out results en route to the UEFA Champions League finalBAKU, AZERBAIJAN - MAY 29: The commemorative Chelsea pennant during the UEFA Europa League Final between Chelsea and Arsenal at Baku Olimpiya Stadionu on May 29, 2019 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City odds for 2021 Champions League final
A familiar cliche emerges ahead of single-game finals in soccer: Expect to see cautious teams, airtight defenses and few scoring opportunities. But there is reason to believe this could actually be the case on Saturday.
Manchester City and Chelsea conceded the fewest goals of any teams in the English Premier League: 32 (xGA 31.3) and 36 goals (xGA 32.8), respectively. Credit the world-class defenders and goalkeepers on each side, and the tactical structure that both managers have devised to get the best out of them.
And at least for one of the finalists, scoring doesn’t always come easy. Chelsea have had their share of struggles manufacturing goals when they’ve needed them. Timo Werner (10 goals vs. 18.1 expected goals per FBref), last summer’s high profile forward signing, has had to shoulder plenty of the criticism, although quality service hasn’t always been there.
2021 UEFA Champions League final odds, picks: Soccer expert reveals best bets for Manchester City vs. Chelsea
European soccer insider Martin Green has revealed his best bets for Chelsea vs. Manchester City on SaturdayMONACO - NOVEMBER 21: Timo Werner of RB Leipzig celebrates scoring his sides second goal during the UEFA Champions League group G match between AS Monaco and RB Leipzig at Stade Louis II on November 21, 2017 in Monaco, Monaco.
And it might pay to remember that the two other occasions we’ve had an all-English final, they were also low-scoring affairs: Liverpool beat Tottenham 2-0 in 2019, but that second goal came in minute 87. In 2008, Manchester United needed penalty kicks to beat Chelsea after a 1-1 draw in regulation.
Here are some odds to play the low-scoring trend:
- Man City-Chelsea total goals Under 1.5: +200
- Man City-Chelsea total goals Under 2.5: -157
- Man City 0, Chelsea 1: +900
- Man City 1, Chelsea 0: +510
- Man City Under 0.5 goals scored: +310
- Chelsea Under 0.5 goals scored: +128
Win to Nil (i.e. via shutout)
- Chelsea to win to nil: +575
- Man City to win to nil: N/A
Chelsea or Man City: Who scores first?
If you buy into the low-scoring thesis and couple that with the records of both teams when they score first, then an obvious betting angle emerges.
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U.S. national team star Christian Pulisic has made it abundantly clear he wants to be a regular starter for Chelsea. The UEFA Champions League final against Manchester City could be the opportunity for him to cement that role as the club's undisputed difference maker.And so was his pique.
When Chelsea have scored first this season in all competitions, they have 17 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Manchester City have won 41 of the 45 games in which they score first. Safe to say, as is the case in most finals, the first goal is going to be huge. Here’s how teams have fared when they have taken the lead over the last 20 Champions League finals:
- Wins: 12
- Draws: 5 (all decided by penalty kick shootouts)
- Losses: 2 (Atletico Madrid in 2014 and Arsenal in 2006)
At time of publication you can still get plus money on both teams scoring first and winning. If you believe in the trend, it’s possible to play both sides and make out on top.
To score first and win:
- Chelsea: +380
- Manchester City: +106
Champions League final prop bets: Offsides & Timo Werner
Werner’s penchant for being caught offside or having a goal annulled for being offside has become a sort of running joke during Chelsea matches. But his manager and German compatriot, Thomas Tuchel, is not bothered by it: He loves that Werner (photo below) presses, harries and stretches opposing defenses. The speedy forward is constantly riding that defensive line in the hope of being sprung into the open field. That’s his game.
UEFA Champions League final picks, predictions: Experts reveal bets, props for Manchester City vs. Chelsea
SportsLine's soccer insiders reveal their top prop bets for Chelsea vs. Manchester City ? © Provided by CBS Sports MONACO - NOVEMBER 21: Timo Werner of RB Leipzig celebrates scoring his sides second goal during the UEFA Champions League group G match between AS Monaco and RB Leipzig at Stade Louis II on November 21, 2017 in Monaco, Monaco. Kickoff is at 3 p.m. ET, with the match airing on CBS and streaming on Paramount+, and there is big money to be made on 2021 UEFA Champions League prop bets if you know where to look.
So it’s no surprise that Chelsea committed the second highest total of offside infractions in the most recent 38-game Premier League season (80 times caught offside). Werner was responsible for 26 of those instances, good for the 4th highest total of any player.
In a game where Chelsea is likely to cede control to Manchester City and look to transition quickly into the open field via Werner and Christian Pulisic, we might see the offside flag come up a few times. (Note: Werner was caught offside against Man City twice in their FA Cup semifinal and three times in the most recent league match.)
- Timo Werner over 1.5 offside infringements: +140
- Chelsea team offsides total over 2.5 (including extra time): +100
Chelsea vs. Manchester City prediction
Some of Chelsea’s best performances this season have come when they’re not the ones having to “make” the game or break down the opposition. They can let the game come to them against Manchester City and pick their moments to inflict damage in transition.
Manchester City are the best team in the world today and they’re playing the best soccer. A first Champions League trophy would be a just reward. But in a 90-minute final they’ll need the key bounces to go their way and that’s never guaranteed.
Spreading money on both sides of the “score first and win” remains my favorite play. I’d also roll the dice on a Chelsea double chance (Chelsea win and draw in regulation) at -106.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City score, result, highlights from 2021 Champions League final .
Chelsea pulled off the upset in the UEFA Champions League final, beating English Premier League champions Manchester City 1-0 in a compelling match. Christian Pulisic became the first US national team player to appear in a final and nearly scored.Chelsea’s Kai Havertz picked a fine time to score his first-career Champions League goal, running onto an inch-perfect pass into space from Mason Mount, rounding the ‘keeper and depositing into the back of the net three minutes before halftime.