Sport NFL betting Week 2 lessons: Try to never overreact to what you see in Week 1
Union urges NFL to adopt daily COVID-19 testing for vaccinated players
There’s a decent chance that the COVID-19 pandemic will play more of a role during the 2021 NFL season than last year. We’re seeing relaxed protocols from the league as it relates to fully vaccinated players with Week 1 of the campaign slated to get going Thursday evening. It has already led to some COVID-related issues for teams. That includes star guard Zack Martin and the Dallas Cowboys with their opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers mere days away. Despite being fully vaccinated, Martin tested positive for the virus and will miss the game.NFLPA president JC Tretter of the Cleveland Browns touched on this recently.
Put a reminder in your 2022 calendar now: Don't overreact to the worst teams we saw in Week 1.
We hear it every year, but it's hard. We see teams absolutely face plant in the opener and don't want any part of them a week later. But among the teams that, here were the results in the second week:
Tennessee Titans: Lost 38-13 to Arizona in Week 1; upset the Seahawks in Seattle Week 2 as 6-point underdogs.
Baltimore Ravens: Lost in overtime to Las Vegas in Week 1; upset the Chiefs as 3.5-point underdogs in Week 2.
Green Bay Packers: Lost 38-3 to the Saints Week 1; beat the Lions 35-17 and covered an 11.5-point spread in Week 2.
Watch: Did Chris Godwin get away with key offensive pass interference?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Dallas Cowboys 31-29 on Thursday night in the first game of the 2021 NFL season, and of course there was a close call at the end. © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin. The Bucs won on a 36-yard field goal with two seconds left. The kick was set up by a catch from Chris Godwin, who may have gotten away with an offensive pass interference.Here is the play: Brady to Godwin into FG range. : #DALvsTB on NBC: https://t.co/0VSAGKOx0q pic.twitter.
Atlanta Falcons: Lost 32-6 in Week 1 to the Eagles; lost and didn't cover against the Buccaneers in Week 2.
Buffalo Bills: Lost 23-16 at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1; beat the Dolphins 35-0 in Week 2 and easily covered as 3.5-point favorites.
Indianapolis Colts: Lost 28-16 in Week 1 to Seattle; lost 27-24 to the Rams in Week 2 but covered the 4-point spread.
Gallery: 5 takeaways from Bears' narrow 20-17 victory over the Bengals (SMG)
That's 5-1 against the spread (5-0 if you didn't think much of the Falcons before the season and stuck with it), with a couple of nice underdog moneyline winners too. It's a lesson — one that doesn't necessarily apply to just Week 1 — that usually NFL teams aren't as bad as they look on their worst weeks. There are extenuating circumstances, like injuries or being coached by Urban Meyer. But typically, recency bias in the NFL will lead to a lot of bad bets. It would have been costly in Week 2 if you didn't remember to not overreact to bad Week 1 teams.
Lamar Jackson makes more history in win over Chiefs
It was another record-setting day at the office for Lamar Jackson on Sunday. © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson The Baltimore Ravens quarterback didn't just get his first win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but he set a few milestones in the process. On Sunday, Lamar Jackson became the second player in NFL history with 200 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in a game, joining Colin Kaepernick, who did so against the Packers in the Divisional Round of the 2012 season. pic.twitter.
Also don't overreact to the good teams of Week 1
Think of some teams that surprised us in Week 1: Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders. Other than the Raiders (we'll get to them in a second) and Texans, none of those teams covered in Week 2.
Some unexpected things we see in Week 1 will stick all season. A few teams are trying to let us know they're either way better or way worse than we projected. But mostly, there are bets to be won by just hanging on to our preseason expectations, at least for a second week.
The Raiders might be good?
This isn't the NCAA tournament selection committee, but the Raiders have two quality wins that will hold up well all season. The Ravens and Steelers are 0-2 against the Raiders. In their other games, they beat the Chiefs and Bills, respectively.
Packers' Aaron Rodgers blasts those who question his work ethic
Rodgers was asked during Tuesday's appearance on "The Pat McAfee Show" about those who would doubt his dedication to the cause. The future Hall of Famer didn't hold back when answering.According to Chris Bumbaca of USA Today, Rodgers was asked during Tuesday's appearance on "The Pat McAfee Show" about those who would doubt his dedication to the cause. The future Hall of Famer didn't hold back when answering.
As stated before, there are some things we can glean from this two-game sample size. The NFL is set up to surprise us every season. Figuring out early on which teams are well off preseason expectations is a key to winning bets in September. The Raiders have started well the past two seasons under Jon Gruden and while we'll have to be wary about how they finish, that's a worry for down the road.
Home field might be gone forever
The records for home teams so far this season,: 16-16 straight up, 13-19 against the spread. It made sense to expect a rebound in home-field advantage with fans back in the stands, but it hasn't happened. Home favorites are a ridiculous 5-13 against the spread.
It's hard to trust a two-week sample size, but it follows a trend. Even before the strange 2020 season without fans, home field was becoming less important. However many points you assign for home-field advantage in 2021, it might be time to take that number down a bit.
NASCAR betting: Larson closing road-course gap, plus picks to consider at Brickyard .
Kyle Larson is closing the gap on teammate Chase Elliott when it comes to the betting market‘s expectations on road courses. Larson is as skinny as +280 (bet $100 to win $280) at BetMGM to take the checkers at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course on Sunday, a significantly shorter price than the +450 he […]Despite finishing second to Larson last week, Elliott remains the road-course favorite, offered at +200 at multiple shops for this week‘s race, the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. He has piloted the No. 9 Chevrolet to six wins and two second-place finishes over the 10 most recent road-course races in the Cup Series .