Sport NFL Player Props Week 3: Five Targeted Best Bets

15:05  25 september  2021
15:05  25 september  2021 Source:   si.com

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Wager confidently with Week 3 betting analysis on these over/under bets

After two weeks of trying to beat the SI Sportsbook with my player prop predictions, I am 7-2 on +4.65 units on a $100 baseline of each investment. If I wager on the favorite, I lay the juice to win $100 (a -115 betting line = bet 115 dollars to win $100). On the underdog side, I wager 100 to win the extra profit (100 to win 150 with a +150 betting line).

When reviewing all the props lines, I’m looking for flaws in pricing. I would expect most of my investments to come on the overside unless I see an overcorrection in a stat line.

Last week, I went a disappointing 3-2 with my betting props. I jockeyed between the over in rushing yards (84.5) or the over in rushing attempts (17.5) for Nick Chubb. I figured a win in yards meant success in his number of carries. Cleveland ran the ball 34 times, but Chubb finished with only 11 rushes for 95 yards and a score. I also fell four yards short of a win for rushing yards for David Montgomery.

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WR Justin Jefferson (MIN)

O/U 77.5 yards receiving (-115)

In 2020, Jefferson was a beast home (48/812/7) with five excellent games (7/175/1, 9/166/2, 7/70/2, 9/121/1, and 8/104) while averaging 16.9 yards per catch. The Vikings looked his way over 10 times over his final eight contests, and his opportunity was similar over the first two games (19 targets) this season.

The Seahawks gave up 22 catches for 321 yards and two touchdowns to wideouts over the first two weeks. This game is set to have plenty of scoring, giving Jefferson a boost in production. In the first cut of the Week 3 projections, he draws the number one ranking at wide receiver (9/139/1).

Bet: Over

RB Javonte Williams (DEN)

O/U 55.5 yards rushing (-115)

Over his first two games on the road, Williams had 27 rushes for 109 yards in the run game. Denver gave him 50 percent of the running back snaps in Week 1, but his playing time slipped to 41 percent in Jacksonville. He had no runs over 20 yards while delivering an exciting 7.3 yards per carry over his last season in college.

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The Jets allowed 46 rushes for 213 yards and three scores over the first two weeks against Carolina and New England.

A home game for Denver points to them playing from the lead with a bump in rushes. Williams brings an explosive feel, with a high ceiling once he gets more chances. SI Sportsbook has the Broncos favored by 10.5 points, pointing to them playing from the lead, focusing on the run game.

Bet: Over

  NFL Player Props Week 3: Five Targeted Best Bets © Provided by Sports Illustrated

WR Robert Woods (LAR)

O/U 63.5 yards receiving

The bulk of the wide receiver opportunity for the Rams landed in the hands of Cooper Kupp (7/108/1 and 9/163/2) over the first two weeks. Woods has eight catches for 91 yards and a touchdown while failing to gain over 20 yards on any play. In 2020, he beat the Bucs for 12 catches for 130 yards and a score in a road game in Tampa.

The Buccaneers have been a disaster defending wide receivers (44/580/6) on 63 targets, with three wideouts succeeding (Amari Cooper – 13/139/2, CeeDee Lamb – 7/104/1, and Calvin Ridley – 7/63/1). As a result, Tampa has to be game-planning to slow down Kupp, creating a better window for Woods (7/82) to be productive. The Bucs also lost one of their starting cornerbacks in Week 1.

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Bet: Over

WR DK Metcalf (SEA)

O/U 75.5 yards receiving (-120)

Metcalf is a elite tier wideout who has been outplayed by his teammate over the first two games. Tyler Lockett has the same number of targets (16), but he has been much more productive (12/278/3). Metcalf has 10 catches for 113 yards and a touchdown while gaining only 11.3 yards per catch (15.6 over his first two seasons). Last year, he caught six passes for 93 yards and two scores vs. the Vikings.

Minnesota struggled to defend the Bengals (13/196/2) and Cardinals (17/277/3) wide receivers. They allowed 15.8 yards per catch and a high catch rate (73.1).

Russell Wilson should get Metcalf going in this matchup while Tyler Lockett sees a step back in his output. His early projections at Sports Illustrated sit at seven catches for 116 yards and one score.

Bet: Over

TE Mark Andrews (BAL)

O/U 49.5 yards receiving (-115)

The Ravens want to run the ball, setting a low bar in most matchups in passing yards. Baltimore only has two trusted receiving options (Marquise Brown and Andrews). Brown shined out of the gate (6/69/1 and 6/113/1) while their star tight end managed eight catches for 77 yards on 10 targets over two games. Last season, he gained over 50 yards in eight of his 16 games (five times at home).

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Detroit gave up 10 touchdowns on 22 possessions to the 49ers and the Packers, but both offenses didn’t feature their tight ends (4/78 and 3/52/1). The Lions’ defense must stop Lamar Jackson, and the success of Marquise Brown should push more attention his way in this matchup. Detroit does have risk vs. tight ends (87.5 percent catch rate and 18.6 yards per catch), pointing to an active day by Andrews.

In 2019 and 2020, he gained over 20 yards on 26 of his 122 catches (21.3 percent). I have Andrews projected for four catches for 56 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

Bet: Over

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