NASCAR at Richmond live race updates, results, highlights from Federated Auto Parts 400
Sporting News is tracking live updates and lap-by-lap highlights from NASCAR's race at Richmond on Saturday night. Follow for complete results from the Federated Auto Parts 400. Pos. Driver Car No. Team 1 P-Kyle Larson 5 Hendrick Motorsports 2 P-Denny Hamlin 11 Joe Gibbs Racing 3 P-Martin Truex Jr.
© Sean Gardner Getty Images NASCAR betting: Larson closing road-course gap, plus picks to consider at Brickyard Kyle Larson is closing the gap on teammate Chase Elliott when it comes to the betting market‘s expectations on road courses. Larson is as skinny as +280 (bet $100 to win $280) at BetMGM to take the checkers at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course on Sunday, a significantly shorter price than the +450 he cashed at in his second road-course victory of the season, last week at Watkins Glen International.
RELATED: Betting odds for Indianapolis | BetCenter page for Indianapolis
Despite finishing second to Larson last week, Elliott remains the road-course favorite, offered at +200 at multiple shops for this week‘s race, the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. He has piloted the No. 9 Chevrolet to six wins and two second-place finishes over the 10 most recent road-course races in the Cup Series .
2021 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard picks, odds, predictions: NASCAR expert fading Kyle Busch at Indianapolis
Micah Roberts pioneered betting on NASCAR and just locked in his Verizon 200 2021 picksMar 3, 2018; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (12) during practice for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
After the Hendrick Motorsports duo, there‘s a large drop down the oddsboard to Martin Truex Jr., who finished a distant third at Watkins Glen. Truex is +600 at BetMGM.
In fact, the top fifth or so of the Indy oddsboard follows a pattern similar to the finishing order at Watkins.
| Watkins finish | Driver | BetMGM odds |
| 1 | Kyle Larson | +280 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | +210 |
| 3 | Martin Truex Jr. | +600 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | +1000 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | +1200 |
| 6 | William Byron | +2500 |
| 7 | Christopher Bell | +2000 |
| 8 | Kevin Harvick | +2500 |
Jim Sannes, a NASCAR betting and DFS analyst at numberFire, is largely in line with the market‘s thinking. When handicapping the Cup‘s inaugural race on this course, he leans on information gleaned from other road layouts, even though they have different characteristics.
What to Watch: Full guide to the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (⏰ 7 p.m. ET | ???? NBCSN, TSN | ???? PRN, SiriusXM) Everything you need to know for Sunday’s Round of 12 opening race and 30th points-paying NASCAR Cup Series event of the 2021 season. Where: Las Vegas, Nevada Green flag: 7:19 p.m. ET Grand Marshal: Dana White, UFC […](⏰ 7 p.m.
“I value equipment more at Watkins Glen than I do at Sonoma (Raceway), based on the way that track races,” Sannes said. “I’m inclined to value equipment a tiny bit more here than I would at a place like Sonoma, but overall, I think you can put Indianapolis into the bucket of road courses in general, view them all as one group and go from there.”
Following that logic, NASCAR bettors should be prepared for more of the No. 5 and No. 9 Sunday.
“Those two guys are just so dominant right now,” said Ed Salmons, who handles NASCAR oddsmaking duties at SuperBook USA in Las Vegas. “The Gibbs guys for the first half of (last week‘s) race looked competitive, and then the second half of the race just had nothing for the two Hendrick guys.”
Expert picks
With some bettors‘ proclivity to play favorites, books will probably be cheering against another Hendrick victory Sunday.
“It‘s just amazing how much money is bet on Chase Elliott every week,” Salmons said. “Even at 2-1, we had a huge liability last week.”
2021 South Point 400 odds, predictions: Model reveals surprising picks for Las Vegas, NASCAR Playoffs
SportsLine simulated the 2021 South Point 400 10,000 times and locked in surprising 2021 NASCAR Playoffs picksNASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. brings out a caution after hitting the wall during the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
For gamblers who want to take a shot against the chalk, Sannes has the No. 11 circled.
Gallery: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Reddick, Chastain turning into solid road-course plays (NASCAR)
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
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Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 21-10
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has won two of the season's five road-course races, including both on tracks new to the Cup circuit – Circuit of The Americas and Road America – and has two runner-up finishes. He also has seven road-course wins in his Cup career. He has scored at least 31 points in the five road races this season, and his average of 41.8 points on that track type is second best. If you have any uses left with the reigning champ, deploy him here.
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Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-5
Fastlane forecast: Like his Hendrick teammate Chase Elliott, Larson has won two of this season's road-course races and scored a runner-up finish. He has the most points on that track type with an average of 42.2 points. In the last four races on that track type, he has scored at least 36 points. What about uses? If you have one left, I'd save it for Michigan as he has been the best driver with the 550-package. If you somehow have two uses, play him.
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Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: In three of the season's five road races to date, Truex has scored at least 35 points. Those runs have come at tracks that the series has previously run. That said, he did score a top 10 at Road America as well. He has good numbers at Michigan, so what do you do? I trust Truex a little more this season on road courses as opposed to the 550-horsepower tracks, so I am planning to use him here before practice and qualifying.
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has been one of the best on the Indianapolis oval with two wins there. He also has run really well in recent road-course races with three straight top fives and four straight road races with at least 35 points. He has been pretty solid at tracks where he has gotten extra seat time this season. The concern is he has struggled on road courses that are Roval-like, and if you only have one use, his 550-horsepower stats this season/recent Michigan numbers are very strong.
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Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has scored the fourth-most points on road courses this season and has three top fives in those five races. He has four races with at least 30 points on road courses. But like so many others, what do you do about uses? At one use, I'm holding him back for Michigan. At two, I'd be inclined to take my chances on the road course given my overall philosophy of not holding back uses for Daytona - as good as he is there.
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Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has the third-most points scored on road courses this season, and that is with just 27-point days in the last two road races. If you are down to one use, do you use him here or at Michigan where he has three wins in his Cup career? Based on his lack of success with the 550-package this season, I'd lean heavily toward using him this weekend.
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William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron was one of our avoids last week, but he got his mojo back with a sixth-place run at Watkins Glen – his best of the year at a road course. Qualifying is on tap this weekend, and that should be a boost for Byron as he earned top-five starting spots at Sonoma and Circuit of The Americas and then also a pole at Road America. In fact, he earned 19 stage points at Road America, and the fourth-year driver finds himself in a standings battle for playoff points.
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Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion has the fifth-most points and fifth-best average finish on road courses this season – marks that are better than Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. Before his Atlanta win, he was very much a stage-point hunter at Circuit of The Americas, Sonoma and Road America – totaling 26 stage points. However, he had none at Watkins Glen. I'd see how he qualifies before deciding if this a play to go in on.
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AJ Allmendinger | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Allmendinger will be making his fourth Cup start of the season. All have come at road courses with the veteran nabbing top 10s in two of the three races he has run. Remember, while ineligible for Cup points, he is eligible for points in Fantasy Live. He has scored 14 stage points this season and has an average of 28 points. He finished fourth at this track in last year's Xfinity race.
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SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Chastain's better results have largely come on road courses with three top 10s in those five races. He also has scored at least 30 points in the last four races on that track type – an average of 35 points per race in that stretch. In the two road-course races that had qualifying, he has averaged 40 points. He finished sixth on this track in the Xfinity Series last year.
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SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell has put together his best run of Cup races over the last four events with two runner ups, four top 10s and an average of 36.8 points. Two of those races were at road courses -- a runner-up run at Road America and a seventh-place finish at Watkins Glen. He also won at the Daytona Road Course in February. The lack of stage points is my main hesitation here.
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SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick continues to score points on the road courses as he makes his push toward a playoff spot. Sitting at plus-15 on the cutline, I'd expect the RCR driver to go all out for stage points much as he did at Circuit of The Americas and Road America – he averaged 41 points in those races and scored 25 stage points. He has the 10th-most points on road courses in 2021.
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SLEEPER PICK: Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Briscoe has notched top 10s in three of the season's five road course races – in fact, they are his only top 10s this season and his only races with more than 30 points. He also won the Xfinity Series race on this layout last summer and has had similar success on another Roval-type layout in Charlotte. If you are all out on the bigger names, he's a good option.
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SLEEPER PICK: Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 33 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Cindric will be making his final Cup start of the season and is eligible for Fantasy Live points. Two of his six starts at the Cup level have come on road courses. While he hasn't gotten the finishes (average finish of 31.5), he did nab 13 stage points at Circuit of The Americas and qualified in the top five in both events. He finished fifth on this track in last year's Xfinity race.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has scored the 16th-most points this season on road courses with only one race where he scored more than 30 points. Last week from the pole position at Watkins Glen, multiple incidents with brake issues led him to just two points. I'll probably plug him in for the race next weekend at Michigan but pass on another road course with him.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has one top 10 and the 15th-most points this season on road courses. He has not scored more than 27 points in any of the five road-course races this season. On the two road courses new to the Cup Series, he hasn't topped more than 20 points. It doesn't seem likely we'd get the big point number we'd like from Blaney.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: In five road-course races this season, Almirola has the 22nd-most points, no finish better than 14th and no single-race point total higher than 23. Of the races left on the schedule, Daytona is the one track I'd consider him for in the regular season based on his previous superspeedway success – two wins – one each at Daytona and Talladega.
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick; Garage: AJ AllmendingerJust missed the cut: Kyle Larson (saving for Michigan), Kyle Busch (saving for Michigan), Christopher Bell, Kurt Busch, Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman and Austin Cindric.Remember, there is practice Saturday morning and qualifying Sunday morning. My stance on trying to save my final Kyle Busch use may change from now to then, and there could be other adjustments, so... Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 1 p.m. ET on NBC.
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“If you’re looking for a mid-range guy, Denny Hamlin is pretty interesting,” Sannes said. “He’s 19-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. He’s been a good road-course racer for a very long time. He had a top-eight average running position at Watkins Glen, Road America and Daytona (Road Course). And we saw last year at Daytona when they were on a new track for the first time, he was able to adapt pretty well.”
NASCAR Cup storylines: Indy road course
NASCAR Cup storylines are plentiful entering this weekend's road course (yes, road course) action at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. ’ Getting to go out on that racetrack and hearing the echoes of the cars through the grandstand is something that I’ll never forget, standing there on the front straightaway. “I’m sure I’ll get over it as we start to get into practice and realize it’s just another race. But, for me, it’s going to be a difficult hurdle to overcome.
(Hamlin finished second and led 16 of 65 laps in the 2020 Daytona Road Course race.)
One of the beauties of NASCAR betting is there are plenty of ways to get involved. Even if you can‘t envision an upset Sunday and want to stay away from the outright market (betting a driver to win the race), sportsbooks offer lots of options to get down.
Sannes offers:
Kurt Busch for a podium finish (+1500 at FanDuel). The No. 1 Chevy has a 14.2% chance at a top-three finish, according to Sannes‘ simulations: “He’s probably not gonna have the upside to beat a Larson or an Elliott, but looking at top-10 bets (+125 at Barstool), looking at podium bets and looking at some group betting, I think Kurt Busch is going to be a rock star-type person in those formats.”
Joey Logano for a podium finish (+850 at FanDuel). While Team Penske has been less than stellar in recent road-course races, the No. 22 ranks fourth in Sannes‘ projected average running position. Similar to his analysis on Busch, Sannes said of Logano: “I’m not sure he has the upside to beat Larson and Elliott, but I think he could be that third guy at times.”
Logano is matched up against Kevin Harvick at several sportsbooks, the SuperBook dealing Logano as the +110 underdog with Harvick laying -130. Sannes, via Twitter:
Media personality and former Vegas oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman chimed in with a DM to NASCAR.com: Christopher Bell (-135) over Ryan Blaney, a price available Friday morning at multiple shops, including BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
‘Dinger the Ringer?
Making an appearance in the upper region of the Brickyard oddsboard is AJ Allmendinger. At 20-1 at BetMGM, the road-course specialist is nestled with a tier that includes Bell and Austin Cindric, priced shorter than Logano, Harvick and William Byron.
Odds of 20-1 imply the ‘Dinger has a 4.76% chance of winning the race. He won just 2.3% of Sannes‘ sims.
“For a guy who’s running a part-time schedule, that‘s pretty good, but at 4% implied, I‘m OK staying away from a betting perspective,” Sannes said. “I’ve bet against him in group bets a couple of times this year; I’m not sure if I’ll do that (Sunday), just because he’s so talented and he does have an experience edge at this track.
“But I do think that he tends to be a tiny bit overvalued in the market just because the reputation is so high, and I’m a little bit worried about the equipment there.”
Allemendinger has driven the No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevy to finishes of seventh (Daytona), fifth (COTA) and 29th (Road America) in his three Cup road-course starts this season.
“The one thing I‘ve learned is these so-called road ringers never go up to the Cup level and win a race — it never happens,” Salmons said.
That‘s at least partly due to the sharpening road-course skills of the entire field.
“There‘s so much (road-course racing) now,” Salmons said. “They used to do two a year, and it was unique to the guys who didn‘t have any road-course (experience as young racers). Each driver has gotten so much better at it from where it was 10, 20 years ago at the NASCAR level.”
Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.
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Watkins Glen takeaways: A troubling trend for Chase Elliott’s team .
Watkins Glen marked the third time this season Chase Elliott has lost points because of NASCAR infractions.Those lost points are significant and could impact his chances to win a second consecutive Cup title.
Sporting News is tracking live updates and lap-by-lap highlights from NASCAR's race at Richmond on Saturday night. Follow for complete results from the Federated Auto Parts 400. Pos. Driver Car No. Team 1 P-Kyle Larson 5 Hendrick Motorsports 2 P-Denny Hamlin 11 Joe Gibbs Racing 3 P-Martin Truex Jr. 
Micah Roberts pioneered betting on NASCAR and just locked in his Verizon 200 2021 picksMar 3, 2018; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (12) during practice for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. 
South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (⏰ 7 p.m. ET | ???? NBCSN, TSN | ???? PRN, SiriusXM) Everything you need to know for Sunday’s Round of 12 opening race and 30th points-paying NASCAR Cup Series event of the 2021 season. Where: Las Vegas, Nevada Green flag: 7:19 p.m. ET Grand Marshal: Dana White, UFC […](⏰ 7 p.m. 
SportsLine simulated the 2021 South Point 400 10,000 times and locked in surprising 2021 NASCAR Playoffs picksNASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. brings out a caution after hitting the wall during the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. 
NASCAR Cup storylines are plentiful entering this weekend's road course (yes, road course) action at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. ’ Getting to go out on that racetrack and hearing the echoes of the cars through the grandstand is something that I’ll never forget, standing there on the front straightaway. “I’m sure I’ll get over it as we start to get into practice and realize it’s just another race. But, for me, it’s going to be a difficult hurdle to overcome. 
Can Chase Elliott claim his third straight Roval win on Sunday and advance in the Cup playoffs? That's among this week's key NASCAR storylines.Chase Elliott, driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, has been stout at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval since it debuted in 2018. After finishing sixth in the Roval’s inaugural Cup race, he’s won the last two in 2019 and 2020. 
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NASCAR Cup storylines: Indy road course 
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Watkins Glen takeaways: A troubling trend for Chase Elliott’s team