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Sport 2021 South Point 400 odds, predictions: Model reveals surprising picks for Las Vegas, NASCAR Playoffs

02:35  27 september  2021
02:35  27 september  2021 Source:   cbssports.com

2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds, picks: Model unveils predictions for Richmond, NASCAR Playoffs

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The 2021 NASCAR Playoffs have looked pretty similar to how the Cup Series regular season looked and that's with Kyle Larson dominating. He won last week at Bristol and enters the Round of 12 atop the playoff standings by a wide margin. Larson now heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the 2021 South Point 400, which gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday. Others such as Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. have also had considerable NASCAR at Las Vegas success, so Larson hasn't run away with the checkered flag just yet.

a car parked in a parking lot: NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. brings out a caution after hitting the wall during the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. © Provided by CBS Sports

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The latest 2021 South Point 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook lists Larson as the 7-2 favorite. Truex Jr. is one of three drivers listed at 13-2 alongside Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Meanwhile, Logano is among a quartet of drivers with 10-1 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds 2021, so this is a highly competitive field. Before scouring the 2021 South Point 400 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 South Point 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

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The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At the Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. It also called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and then correctly predicted the top five drivers at Watkins Glen before nailing at least seven of the top 10 in two of the last three weeks. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

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Now, the model simulated the 2021 South Point 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete 2021 South Point 400 projected leaderboard.

Top 2021 South Point 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 10-1 long shot in the latest 2021 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. The veteran got off to a rough start to the NASCAR season as he posted just five top 10s through his first 17 races. But he turned things around over the second half of the year and has seven top 10s in his last 12 races. That includes top-10 finishes in two of the three playoff races as Keselowski currently sits 10th in Cup Series standings.

Few drivers have achieved the level of NASCAR at Las Vegas success as Keselowski, who has three victories at the track. Even when he doesn't win, he's usually always in contention with an astounding 11 top-10 finishes over his last 12 races in Vegas. His seven top-five finishes are tied for the most-ever and he also owns the Cup Series time record at the track of 2 hours, 35 minutes and 24 seconds at the 2014 Kobalt 400.

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And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, one of the Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 South Point 400 starting grid. Hamlin only has one win on the season but is still third in the standings because he has a penchant for leading laps, winning stages and finishing near the front.

However, the closing push simply hasn't been there for the No. 11 car this year and Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a tough spot to pay a steep price on Hamlin. The 45-time Cup winner has never won in 19 starts at LVMS and finished outside the top 10 in seven of his last 13 Cup starts there.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Las Vegas picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 South Point 400? And which long shots do you need to back? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 South Point 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has called several race winners this season and predicted at least seven of the top 10 two of the last three weeks.

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2021 South Point 400 odds

Kyle Larson 7-2

Kyle Busch 13-2

Martin Truex Jr. 13-2

Denny Hamlin 13-2

Chase Elliott 8-1

Ryan Blaney 10-1

Brad Keselowski 10-1

Joey Logano 10-1

Kevin Harvick 10-1

William Byron 12-1

Alex Bowman 18-1

Kurt Busch 25-1

Christopher Bell 28-1

Tyler Reddick 50-1

Aric Almirola 75-1

Austin Dillon 75-1

Matt DiBenedetto 75-1

Ross Chastain 75-1

Chris Buescher 150-1

Daniel Suarez 150-1

Cole Custer 250-1

Bubba Wallace 250-1

Chase Briscoe 250-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 250-1

Ryan Newman 300-1

Erik Jones 500-1

Ryan Preece 1000-1

Michael McDowell 1000-1

Corey Lajoie 1500-1

Anthony Alfredo 2500-1

Justin Haley 2500-1

Josh Bilicki 5000-1

J.J. Yeley 5000-1

Joey Gase 5000-1

Quin Houff 5000-1

Garrett Smithley 5000-1

B.J. McLeod 5000-1

Cody Ware 5000-1

2021 NASCAR standings

1. Kyle Larson 3059 points

2. Martin Truex Jr. 3029

3. Denny Hamlin 3024

4. Ryan Blaney 3024

5. Kyle Busch 3022

6. Chase Elliott 3021

7. Alex Bowman 3015

8. Wiliam Byron 3014

9. Joey Logano 3013

10. Brad Keselowski 3008

11. Christopher Bell 3005

12. Kevin Harvick 3002

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