Sport Fantasy Football: Week 4 position previews, buy low, sell high, and trade values

20:40  29 september  2021
20:40  29 september  2021 Source:   cbssports.com

Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Week 2 lineup advice, best matchups, DFS picks

  Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Week 2 lineup advice, best matchups, DFS picks It's only Week 2, but in another unpredictable season, you can bet fantasy football owners have plenty of start 'em, sit 'em questions. Vinnie Iyer has lineup advice and NFL DFS picks to help you keep winning or rebound after losing your season-opening matchup.The good news (or bad, depending how you look at it) is ever team is in action, and aside from Raheem Mostert (knee), Jerry Jeudy (ankle), Michael Gallup (calf), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip), there weren't too many notable injuries last week (that we know of). Most fantasy squad will have their full complement of players at their disposals, so it's important to evaluate usage and matchups.

With three weeks out of the way, expect to see the trade market in your Fantasy leagues heat up. Tuesday, I was able to shore up the biggest weakness in one of my leagues, swapping Ja'Marr Chasefor George Kittlein a one-for-one swap that still leaves me with Cooper Kupp. D.J. Moore, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, and (eventually) Michael Thomas. I started Cole Kmet at TE in Week 3, so it was kind of a no-brainer.

Oct 7, 2018; Charlotte, NC, USA; A New York Giants helmet sits on the sidelines against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. © Provided by CBS Sports

Oct 7, 2018; Charlotte, NC, USA; A New York Giants helmet sits on the sidelines against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.

I'm staring at a much tougher situation in another league, my longest-running home league. I've pretty much made the wrong decision every single week when setting my lineups, most recently leaving James Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders, and the Panthers DST on the bench, decisions that certainly cost me a win. I'm 0-3 and I have no one to blame for myself -- I rank dead last in coach rating in the CBS Fantasy game.

Overrated players, potential fantasy busts who move down PPR rankings in 2021

  Overrated players, potential fantasy busts who move down PPR rankings in 2021 Whether you're making the switch from standard to PPR leagues, play in both, or simply find yourself reading standard rankings too often, you need to be aware of the differences in rankings. See which fantasy stars and mid-tier players take a hit heading into 2021.That said, some of the guys on the list below will still be highly valuable across both formats, while some take major hits in PPR leagues. This should go without saying, but it's vital to closely pay attention to your league's scoring settings and adjust your cheat sheets based on whether you're in a standard, half-point PPR, or full-point PPR league.

The problem I've got in that league is I simply have too many similarly valued players that I'm trying to choose from. I've trusted Allen Robinson each week, and I left Myles Gaskin in over James Robinson in Week 3. This is a team that is in desperate need of a trade to limit the number of decisions I have to make, but this is also league where it is incredibly hard to actually make trades -- 10 teams and deep benches means nobody really has an obvious hole. I may just be stuck with this team, agonizing over these decisions all season long.

Today's newsletter is all about trying to help you avoid that fate. First up, I've got my Week 4 Stock Watch here for you, with five players to buy and five to sell if you're looking to make a trade -- and make sure you've got Dave's Trade Values Chart handy to make sure you're making a smart move.

Week 3 Fantasy Sleepers: Rondale Moore, Quintez Cephus among players on the start 'em, sit 'em bubble

  Week 3 Fantasy Sleepers: Rondale Moore, Quintez Cephus among players on the start 'em, sit 'em bubble Our Week 3 fantasy sleepers are headlined by Rondale Moore and Quintez Cephus, two WRs having early-season breakouts. Still, they remain on the start-or-sit bubble with a host of other potential contributors.So far this year, we've seen quarterbacks Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, and Teddy Bridgewater vastly outperform some of the studs at the position, while players like James White, Kenyan Drake, and Jared Cook have been thrust into bigger roles than we expected. Still, there's always a lag in reacting among the fantasy community, so you can create a real edge for yourself if you're up to date on all things sleepers. This isn't only a big picture process, but a week-to-week chore.

After that, let's get acquainted with the state of each position for this week, with Heath Cummings' position previews. I've got the latest injury news from each position, and then Heath gives you everything else you need to know.

And, in case you missed it yesterday, check out my rankings below with a whole bunch of comments on why I like or dislike certain players this week that I compiled while going through the process of ranking them:

  • QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings

Hopefully that helps you get an understanding of what to expect for this week. Here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 4:

  • ????Week 4 Stock Watch????
  • ????Week 4 Position Previews

????Week 4 Stock Watch????

Looking to make a trade? You know your team a little bit, and you might know where your weak points are already. Or, you might know how to take advantage of someone else's slow start. Make sure you've got your bearings before you go make offers with the help of Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart, and here are five players whose stock I'm buying and five I'm selling ahead of Week 4.

Updated 2021 Fantasy Football TE Auction Values: Dollar projections, rankings for standard & PPR tight ends

  Updated 2021 Fantasy Football TE Auction Values: Dollar projections, rankings for standard & PPR tight ends Travis Kelce will command a large chunk of your auction budget, at least relative to other tight ends. Is he worth paying for? We break down FantasyPros' projected TE dollar values for standard and PPR leagues ahead of your 2021 fantasy football auction.Most fantasy owners can't stomach the hit of paying upwards of $40 for Kelce -- not when they can get someone like Dallas Goedert for over $30 cheaper. But, as we pointed out in our standard-league TE rankings, Kelce outscored Waller by 36.2 fantasy points last year, and Waller outscored No. 3 TE, Robert Tonyan, by 47 points. After that, Nos. 3-19 were closer in points than Tonyan was to Waller.

Five to buy

Here are five big players I'm buying into moving forward. Things are only going to get better from here.

Buy High

You don't always have to sell high or buy low. Sometimes a hot start is just the beginning of something big, and there's value in trying to buy those situations before their perceived value catches up.

  • Chase Edmonds-- Edmonds is currently RB16 in PPR scoring despite having zero touchdowns on 47 touches. You should expected Edmonds to score fewer touchdowns than your typical running back given the same amount of work, given that he'll likely never be a focal point near the goal line, but he still managed to have five touchdowns on 150 touches last season, and there's no reason to think he won't have a similar rate this season. Given his expanded role -- up from 9.4 to 15.6 touches per game -- it's not unreasonable to expect  Edmonds to score around eight touchdowns this season. He could be a top-12 RB if that happens, but he'll never cost that.
  • Odell Beckham -- I did not expect Beckham to have as big a role as he did in his first game back, and now I'm rethinking what my expectations should be. Beckham played 47 of 57 snaps before the fourth quarter and had a 29% target share. His time in Cleveland has been defined by disappointment, but with Jarvis Landry on IR with a knee injury, he's looking like a top-24 WR already.

Buy low

Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 4: TEs Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz among top free agent pickups after Monday night breakouts

  Fantasy Waiver Wire Week 4: TEs Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz among top free agent pickups after Monday night breakouts Dalton Schultz and Zach Ertz vaulted themselves into the TE1 conversation after big Monday night performances. Both will be among the top Week 4 fantasy waiver wire pickups. See more potential free agent adds after waivers clear on Wednesday morning.Our full free agent list has even more of these types of players, including the recently reinstated Josh Gordon. Again, these are mostly free agent pickups, so don't get too excited. We do have some Week 4-specific streamers, including a few QBs, several TEs, and a bunch of D/STs (which will be important this week). You can find the streamer suggestions at the end of the list.

But if you do want to buy low, here are three players I think have seen their worst days already:

  • Robert Woods-- It's been tough to watch Cooper Kupp consistently demolish opposing defenses while Woods ranks just 48th in PPR scoring at WR right now, but you have to have faith he'll turn it around. There's just no good reason why Woods shouldn't be able to thrive with Matthew Stafford given how good he was with Jared Goff. He's still getting a healthy target share, and I'm willing to bet Woods will be a top-24 WR moving forward.
  • Allen Robinson -- To quote one of my favorite songs of the last few years, "It won't be this bleak forever -- and I hope you're right." Robinson has been a must-start Fantasy receiver for years without ever really having good quarterback play, so I have to assume the Bears will figure this out and get him going. It's not a stretch to say their season likely depends on. The good news is, you can probably get Robinson dirt cheap. Dave has him as a 15 in the trade values chart, in the same range as Ja'Marr Chase and James Robinson, but I think a lot of you could grab him for a lot less. The folks with Robinson on their rosters are probably panicking, and I would see if I could get him for someone like Christian Kirk plus a piece.
  • Kyle Pitts -- If you're buying into Pitts, you are buying into the idea that the Falcons offense will figure things out eventually. I've certainly downgraded my expectations on that front given how they've started the season, but I'm still pretty confident they'll be better than 16.0 points per game, and Matt Ryanwill almost certainly be better than 6.0 yards per attempt moving forward -- his previous career-low was 6.5 back in 2009 and 2020. Pitts is running a route on 81.3% of the Falcons pass plays overall, and he's simply too talented of a playmaker not to be targeted more moving forward. Maybe Pitts isn't going to be an elite tight end this season -- though I wouldn't write that possibility off entirely -- but if this offense is going to improve, he'll have to be a big part of that.

Five to sell

Sell high

Fantasy Updates: Latest news on Rob Gronkowski, DeAndre Hopkins, George Kittle, Antonio Brown affecting Week 4 start-or-sit decisions

  Fantasy Updates: Latest news on Rob Gronkowski, DeAndre Hopkins, George Kittle, Antonio Brown affecting Week 4 start-or-sit decisions Rob Gronkowski, DeAndre Hopkins, George Kittle, and Antonio Brown are dealing with injuries or COVID ahead of Week 4. Get the latest injury/health updates before finalizing your start 'em, sit 'em lineup decisions.For all the latest fantasy news, follow us on Twitter @SN_Fantasy.

I'm not saying these guys won't be useful or good moving forward, but I think you can probably get more in return for them than you're likely to get from them:

  • Ja'Marr Chase -- This one could, of course, end up being a huge mistake. Chase is an elite prospect who has already demonstrated the ability to make plays in the NFL. The idea of him remaining a high-level performer moving forward is not a tough one for me to conceive, and I think there are several top-12 WR finishes in his future. But the Bengals have been a fairly low-volume pass offense so far, and they've been using Chase more like a deep threat than as a true No. 1, and I'm not sure that's guaranteed to change unless Tee Higgins' shoulder injury is more serious than we think. Chase is an awesome player, but if you could flip him for a top-12 WR or top-15 RB, I think you should do it. I just got George Kittle for him, and I'm happy with that.
  • Melvin Gordon -- Gordon is, as expected, the lead back for the Broncos, and he's been better than Javonte Williams to date in pretty much a 50-50 split. But there's no way he's going to remain a top-15 running back in his current role, where he has 42 carries and just seven targets through three games. Nearly 30% of his points on the season came on one 70-yard run in Week 1, and he's averaging 3.14 yards per carry otherwise. Williams is the future of this backfield, and you should get what you can out of Gordon while you can.
  • Zack Moss-- I'm not sure how people are valuing Moss right now, but I'm not buying the idea that he's suddenly a viable Fantasy starter after he was inactive in Week 1. This Buffalo offense has never been a good one for running back Fantasy production, but Moss has three touchdowns on 26 touches in two games. Maybe the Bills are changing their approach to get the running backs more involved near the goal line, but the bet should still be that Josh Allen will throw for a bunch of touchdowns and score a handful more, leaving the backs with just the scraps. If Moss is still splitting carries with Devin Singletary, he's going to be a fringe Fantasy option.

Sell low

Fantasy Injury Updates: Latest news on Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Elijah Mitchell affecting Week 5 start 'em, sit 'em calls

  Fantasy Injury Updates: Latest news on Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Elijah Mitchell affecting Week 5 start 'em, sit 'em calls Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Elijah Mitchell headline a group of running backs who figure to be "questionable" for Week 5. Get the latest injury updates ahead of your start 'em, sit 'em decisions.For news on hurting WRs Tee Higgins, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Chase Claypool go here; for the latest on QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Teddy Bridgewater, click here. For all the latest fantasy news, follow us on Twitter @SN_Fantasy.

Sometimes, getting off a sinking ship is better than hoping they'll be able to fix the breach in the hull. I'm willing to sell these two on name value I don't think they'll live up to:

  • Trey Sermon-- This is a pivotal week for Sermon's value. If Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) is unable to play, that means Sermon will likely get one more chance to prove himself after being inactive for Week 1, barely playing in Week 2, and then struggling in Week 3. There's still time for him to emerge as a useful Fantasy option, but if he doesn't do much in Week 4 against the Seahawks, he could be relegated to a reserve role once Mitchell is healthy enough to play. I think that's more likely than not at this point, so I would be looking to shop Sermon coming off a game where he finished RB25. That might be the relative high point.
  • Myles Gaskin -- Gaskin has been a fixture in the passing game, with at least five targets in each game, but that's about all he's got going for him right now. Even in a game in Week 3 where he saw a season-high 13 carries, it was still Malcolm Brown getting into the game in goal-line situations -- and he was getting plenty of third-down snaps over Gaskin as well. Gaskin really needed to be in a situation where he was dominating touches and snaps like he was in 2020, and that just isn't happening so far this season. I would see what you can get for him before people realize how low his ceiling truly is right now.

????Week 4 Position Previews

Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus top-12 rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns:

QB Preview

  • Injuries to know: Justin Fields(hand)/Andy Dalton(knee) -- Fields injured his hand late in Sunday's loss to the Browns, and it seems like both he and Dalton may be in doubt for Week 4 against the Lions. Nick Foleswas mentioned as a potential candidate to start by Matt Nagy Tuesday.
  • Number to know: 1,203 -- "Derek Carrhas thrown for a league-leading 1,203 yards in victories over the Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins."
  • Matchup that matters: Lamar Jackson@DEN (2nd in points allowed to QB)
  • Top streamer: "Sam Darnold. We're going to learn a lot about the Panthers offense and defense this week. If Darnold keeps up what he's done so far, we may consider him more than a streamer. This week he's barely that.  "

Consensus Expert Top 12

There are a ton of injuries to keep up with for Week 5

  There are a ton of injuries to keep up with for Week 5 FFT 10/08

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Kyler Murray
  3. Russell Wilson
  4. Josh Allen
  5. Lamar Jackson
  6. Dak Prescott
  7. Jalen Hurts
  8. Justin Herbert
  9. Tom Brady
  10. Matthew Stafford
  11. Aaron Rodgers
  12. Kirk Cousins

RB Preview

  • Injuries to know: Christian McCaffrey(hamstring) -- The Panthers opted not to put McCaffrey on IR, so they seemingly expected him back after either one or two games misses. Chuba Hubbardshould be a top-20 RB in Week 4, but his stay in the role may not be long ... Dalvin Cook(ankle) -- Cook was a game-time decision in Week 3, at least in theory, so there should be a chance he'll play this week. Now, it doesn't seem like he actually had much of a chance to play Sunday, so don't be surprised if Alexander Mattison gets another start. He would be a top-10 RB if he does ... Josh Jacobs(toe) -- Jacobs has missed two games as a result of his injury,  but it sounds like he could have a chance to play in Week 4. If not, the Raiders probably should have just put him on IR ... Darrell Henderson(ribs) -- Sean McVay expressed optimism about Henderson's chances of playing in Week 4, but he did the same last week, so let's just wait until we see him practice before getting optimistic. If Henderson is out, Sony Michelis a top-15 RB against the Cardinals ... Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) -- Mitchell's status for Sunday's game against the 49ers is very much up in the air, but I'm operating under the assumption he won't play. He did get a limited practice in Friday before being ruled out, so it's not totally unlikely ... James White(hip) -- White was diagnosed with a hip subluxation and is out indefinitely. He hasn't been placed on IR yet, but that seems inevitable, as the Patriots worked out four running backs Tuesday. Brandon Bolden saw a larger role in White's absence, and could see the field a lot in Week 4 against the Buccaneers.
  • Number to know: 12.9% -- "Derrick Henry's target share has doubled this year and it may be sustainable with A.J. Brown on the shelf."
  • Matchup that matters: David Montgomeryvs. DET (25th in points allowed to RB)
  • Stash: "There's a week coming when Jeff Wilson leads the 49ers backfield again. With all these injuries, Wilson should be stashed whether you have an IR spot or not.  "
  • Top DFS play: Chuba Hubbard -- "Like Alexander Mattison last week, Hubbard is chalk worth playing. I'd expect 10-plus carries and five-plus catches, which should make him a top-12 running back in most all DFS formats. "

Consensus Expert Top 12

  1. Derrick Henry
  2. Alvin Kamara
  3. Austin Ekeler
  4. Aaron Jones
  5. Joe Mixon
  6. Nick Chubb
  7. Chris Carson
  8. Najee Harris
  9. Jonathan Taylor
  10. D'Andre Swift
  11. Alexander Mattison
  12. Saquon Barkley

WR Preview

  • Injuries to know: Tee Higgins (shoulder) -- Higgins missed Tuesday's practice as the Bengals kicked off prep for Thursday's game against the Jaguars. That doesn't mean he definitely won't play, however given the extra time off until Week 5, it makes sense that Higgins wouldn't play, so that's what I'm expecting ... A.J. Brown (hamstring) -- Brown is considered week-to-week with his hamstring strain, and I would be stunned if he played in Week 4 against the Jets. The Titans really don't need to push him. It will be interesting to see if Julio Jones pops up on Wednesday's practice report after coach Mike Vrabel vaguely described him as missing Sunday's fourth quarter with "tightness." ... Diontae Johnson(knee)/JuJu Smith-Schuster(ribs) -- Mike Tomlin told reporters Tuesday he thinks both Johnson and Smith-Schuster will practice this week, though that doesn't mean either will play. We'll keep a close eye on reports out of Pittsburgh in the coming days ... KJ Hamler(knee) -- Hamler suffered a torn ACL in Sunday's game and is out for the season. That leaves the Broncos down two of their top three wide receivers until Jerry Jeudy (ankle) is able to return ... Rashod Bateman (groin) -- Bateman is eligible to come off IR this week and will make his return to practice Wednesday. That may not be enough time for him to get ready for Week 4 against the Broncos, but he's worth stashing because his return could be imminent ... Elijah Moore(concussion) -- Moore's status for Sunday's game against the Titans is very much in doubt at this point, though he'll go through the protocol before being ruled out. If he doesn't play and Jamison Crowder (groin) isn't ready to return, Braxton Berrios and Keelan Cole would likely see a bigger role. However, even against a pretty good matchup, neither is worth using; Corey Davis is barely a WR4.
  • Number to know: 37.6% -- "Brandin Cooks leads all receivers with a 37.6% target share."
  • Matchup that matters: Terry McLaurin@ATL (21st in points allowed to WR)
  • Stash: "Bryan Edwards' target share is way too low to consider starting, but he's been awesome and he looks like a future star. If Derek Carr starts targeting him more, Edwards could take off. That's exactly the type of guy you should be stashing.."
  • Top DFS play: "Michael Pittmanhas 24 targets over his past two games and looks to be emerging as a true No. 1 receiver for the Colts. But he's priced more like a low-end No. 3."

Consensus Expert Top 12

  1. Davante Adams
  2. Tyreek Hill
  3. Cooper Kupp
  4. Keenan Allen
  5. Stefon Diggs
  6. Justin Jefferson
  7. Tyler Lockett
  8. Calvin Ridley
  9. DK Metcalf
  10. CeeDee Lamb
  11. DeAndre Hopkins
  12. Chris Godwin

TE Preview

  • Injuries to know: George Kittle (calf) -- Kittle is dealing with a sore calf and is being viewed as day-to-day heading into Week 4 against the Seahawks. We'll monitor his status through practice, but I'm not concerned yet.
  • Number to know: 11.1 -- "Mark Andrews' 11.1 air yards per target is tops amongst tight ends with at least 10 targets. "
  • Matchup that matters: Logan Thomas@ATL (29th in points allowed to TE)
  • Streamer: "Dalton Schultz has scored double-digit Fantasy points in two of three games this season and he's consistently playing more than Blake Jarwin. The Cowboys have produced a borderline No. 1 tight end each of the past two seasons, and it looks like Schultz could make it three in a row."
  • Top DFS play: "The gap between Travis Kelceand everyone else is really highlighted by weeks when Darren Walleris not on the main slate. I'd much rather save money somewhere else and pay up for Kelce's consistent excellence."

Consensus Expert Top 12

  1. Tim Patrick
  2. Travis Kelce
  3. Darren Waller
  4. T.J. Hockenson
  5. Rob Gronkowski
  6. George Kittle
  7. Kyle Pitts
  8. Mark Andrews
  9. Noah Fant
  10. Tyler Higbee
  11. Logan Thomas
  12. Dallas Goedert
  13. Evan Engram

There are a ton of injuries to keep up with for Week 5 .
FFT 10/08

usr: 11
This is interesting!