US: Trump's Threatened Tariffs Could Cause Recession in 9 Months if Implemented, Morgan Stanley Warns - PressFrom - US
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USTrump's Threatened Tariffs Could Cause Recession in 9 Months if Implemented, Morgan Stanley Warns

02:55  06 august  2019
02:55  06 august  2019 Source:   newsweek.com

Trade war is raising the risk of U.S. recession, Goldman Sachs warns

Trade war is raising the risk of U.S. recession, Goldman Sachs warns The trade war with China is having a greater effect on the U.S. economy than expected, and the risk of recession is rising, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Sunday. © MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, Reuters President Donald Trump has threatened additional tariffs against Chinese goods starting Sept. 1. In a note to clients, Goldman analysts led by chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said a trade deal between the U.S. and China is no longer expected before the 2020 presidential election. Goldman (GS) said it now expects a 0.6% drag on the U.S. economy due to trade-war developments, up from earlier estimates of 0.2%.

U. S . equity investors aren’t thrilled with a recent unraveling of U. S .-China trade talks, but the situation for stocks could worsen, and ultimately lead to a recession , if President Trump follows through with recent threats to implement tariffs on the Chinese imports that haven’t yet been hit with duties.

but warned that if the US follows through with 25 percent tariffs on the additional Chinese imports, “We could end up in a recession in three quarters.” customary lag before policy measures impact real economic activity, a downdraft in global growth appears inevitable,” according to Morgan Stanley .

President Donald Trump's trade war with China could drive the economy into recession in nine months if he implements threatened 25 percent tariffs on an additional $300 billion of imports from China, Morgan Stanley economists said in a Monday note.

Trump threatened last week to escalate his long-running trade war with China, which has resulted in 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of imports. The president said he would impose tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports on September 1, initially starting the tariff at 10 percent. He said the tariff rate could rise to 25 percent. The threat, which came amid ongoing trade talks over policy differences between the world's two largest economies, sent global markets into a tailspin.

How a recession could doom Trump’s 2020 reelection

How a recession could doom Trump’s 2020 reelection Only one president since the Civil War has been reelected with a recession taking place in the two calendar years before facing voters a second time.

Morgan Stanley ' s Michael Wilson says companies will have a tough time offsetting the cost of The U. S . economy could fall into a recession if the country' s trade war keeps escalating, Morgan The tariff hike, which President Donald Trump had threatened on May 5, has led to a massive re-pricing

Morgan Stanley sees global recession ' in three quarters' if Trump escalates trade war. Investors are overlooking the threat posed by the U. S .-China trade war, which could send the global economy into recession in less than a year, according to a research note published Sunday by Morgan Stanley .

Amid uncertainty caused by trade tensions, global growth is slowing. Trump's tariff announcements "raise downside risks significantly," the Morgan Stanley note said.

"If the U.S. were to implement 25% tariffs on all imports from China for 4-6 months and China were to respond with countermeasures, we believe we would see the global economy entering recession in three quarters," said the note, which estimated that global growth would fall to a 7-year low by the end of 2019 if the new tariffs are implemented and China responds with countermeasures.

The new round of tariffs would hit consumers hard. Previous rounds were intended to exempt consumer products, but retail items like iPhones, toys and clothes will be included if new tariffs are put in place.

Trump delays laptop and smartphone tariffs until December

Trump delays laptop and smartphone tariffs until December The administration said it was delaying implementation

Morgan Stanley says economy is on ' recession watch' as bond market flashes warning . He' s stood by his gloomy case for 2019, often warning that investors could be caught in a "rolling bear market Morgan Stanley ' s analysis shows the adjusted yield curve first inverted in November and has stayed

White House says levies are response to Airbus subsidies it claims harm US interests.

Trump's Threatened Tariffs Could Cause Recession in 9 Months if Implemented, Morgan Stanley Warns© Alex Wong/Getty Images President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence enter the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House to make remarks on August 5. Morgan Stanley said in its note that about two-thirds of items subject to tariff if new import duties are levied are consumer products. Oxford Economics told Newsweek that if the tariffs are implemented at 25 percent, the average American household would be paying $900 per year.

Trump said on Saturday that the trade war is "going along very well" even as evidence of its impact on the economy is becoming harder to ignore. U.S. GDP rose 2.1 percent last quarter, a full percent drop from the first three months of the year. Manufacturing activity also slowed to a level close to a three-year low last month.

China has responded with its own tariffs on U.S. imports, further exacerbating the trade war's toll. The country's currency weakened more than the seven-to-one-dollar ratio on Monday, falling below that symbolic threshold for the first time in more than 10 years.

Business groups to Trump: Tariff delay isn't enough

Business groups to Trump: Tariff delay isn't enough Business groups on Tuesday said President Trump's decision to postpone and exempt some consumer goods scheduled for tariffs did not go far enough, and urged him to take additional steps to wind down the trade war with China. © UPI Photo Business groups to Trump: Tariff delay isn't enough The White House trade office announced Tuesday morning that the administration would delay tariffs on certain consumer goods, from Sept. 1 to Dec. 15, while also removing items from the list targeting Chinese products. require(["medianetNativeAdOnArticle"], function (medianetNativeAdOnArticle) { medianetNativeAdOnArticle.

“A recession could begin in as soon as nine months if President Donald Trump pushes to impose 25% tariffs on additional 0 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliates Airlines are worried further differences between regulators over safety could confuse passengers and cause disruption.”

President Donald Trump last month raised the tariffs on 0 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. U. S . officials have also threatened to impose tariffs on 0 billion in remaining Chinese imports. Ahya noted that the outcome of the trade war at the moment “is highly uncertain” but warned

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has warned China against manipulating its currency, which the administration worries will provide an unfair advantage to Chinese exporters. The renminbi's drop in value evoked a quick response from Trump, who tweeted that "China has always used currency manipulation to steal our businesses and factories, hurt our jobs, depress our workers' wages and harm our farmers' prices. Not anymore!"

Global stock markets quickly fell after the value of the yuan decreased. The Dow Jones dropped 1.8 percent. France's CAC 40 declined 1.79 percent, and the United Kingdom's FTSE fell 2.4 percent.

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