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US IMF lowers global economic forecast

20:23  25 january  2022
20:23  25 january  2022 Source:   pressfrom.com

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the global economic recovery from the Corona crisis device into stock - and the prices for consumers continue to rise. In view of a weaker expected growth in China and the United States, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a slightly down its forecast to develop the global economy.

Für Verbraucher gibt es schlechte Nachrichten: Die Preise sollen weltweit erneut deutlich steigen. © Demy Becker / DPA For consumers there are bad news: Prices should increase significantly worldwide.

The global economy is expected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2022 - 0.5 percentage points less than the last forecast adopted in October as the IMF announced.

The inflation rate in turn is expected to be significantly higher than expected three months ago. For the industrialized countries, the IMF expects an average inflation rate of 3.9 percent for this year, an increase of 1.6 percentage points. In developing and emerging countries, the inflation rate 2022 averaged 5.9 percent on average - a plus of one percentage point. A normalization of the inflation rate is to occur until 2023. Higher inflation weakens the purchasing power of consumers because they can buy less for a Euro or dollar than before.

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growth forecognosis for Germany reduced

forecast for gross domestic product growth (GDP) in Germany This year, the IMF lowered to 3.8 percent, which are 0.8 percentage points less than was adopted in October.

as a reason, the IMF mentioned above all the continued interruptions of global supply chains, which meet the German economy. For the Eurozone, the IMF lowered its growth forecast for this year by 0.4 percentage points to 3.9 percent.

of the IMF acknowledged that the new economic forecasts of high uncertainty were shaped. With a view to the Coronavirus Pandemic, Chief Volkswirt Student Gita Gopinath, "The development of deadly variants could extend the crisis». In addition, China's strategy could use strict local Lockdowns to avoid dissemination of the virus to exacerbate problems of global supply chains.

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. If the financial pressure of the industry should spread to the economy as a whole, "the consequences would be well noticeable," Gopinath warned.

for the USA, the world's largest economy, the IMF has capped its growth forecast by 1.2 percentage points to 4 percent. The reason for this is the IMF, above all, the failure of a trillion-heavy packet for investment in social benefits and climate protection in the US Congress that the economy would have boosted. For China, the forecast was reduced by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8 percent. As a reason, the IMF calls the lower purchase of consumers apart from the real estate sector problems and the Corona Lockdown.

With a view to the pandemic, the IMF assumes that Omikron will slow down global growth in the first quarter. But it is expected that this effect cancel in the second quarter - assuming that there will be no new variants of the coronavirus that will lead to far-reaching conditions, the IMF.

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Inflation: Normalization next year Expected

With regard to inflation, the expected normalization predicted from the IMF forecasted for mid 2022 is shifting to the coming year. In 2023, thanks to fewer problems with global supply chains, stabilized energy prices and a total tangible monetary policy, prices are intended to increase significantly slower. In the industrialized countries, inflation should then only be 2.1 percent, in emerging and developing countries 4.7 percent.

of the IMF warned, the foreseeable tangible monetary policy to combat inflation, especially in the US, will also put pressure on emerging and developing countries, such as higher loan rates and weakening currencies.

"A surprisingly high inflation in the United States could cause aggressive tightening of monetary policy through the Federal Reserve," said Gopinath. This would lead to a significant tightening of the conditions in the global financial markets.

The US Federal Reserve Federal Reserve (Fed) has already initiated its turnaround away from the aid programs to the fight against the Corona crisis towards a tighter monetary policy. The key interest rate may be increased for the first time in March since the beginning of the pandemic. By the end of the year, up to two additional interest rate steps are expected.

The key interest rate is still in the extremely low range of 0.0 to 0.25 percent. The inflation rate in turn was climbed to 7 percent last year, the highest value for decades. An increase in the key interest rate would slow down the inflation, but also dampen the economy.

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