WorldWhat Would a No-Deal Brexit Look Like?

04:30  03 april  2019
04:30  03 april  2019 Source:   nytimes.com

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" No deal " can be a confusing term in the Brexit debate because there are, in fact, several potential deals waiting to be done. But when people talk about preparing for no deal at the moment, they mean the prospect of failing to reach agreement on the terms of departure, which are being negotiated under Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. It is these Article 50 negotiations, led by Michel Barnier for the EU and the new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, for the UK, which are supposed to end with a withdrawal agreement.

A no - deal Brexit will have an immediate impact on UK businesses that trade with EU member states. That is because, overnight, the country will switch to having "third country" status - making its exports to Europe subject to tariffs. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reckons these The government says it is "turbo-charging" preparations for no - deal , and has pledged £2.1bn more to help make them happen. Peter Bone, the Conservative MP and Brexiteer, has extolled the benefits of no - deal to Sky News. He said: “We get a proper clean Brexit on 31 October, we end the free movement of people

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, warned on Tuesday that Britain’s seeming inability to decide on an orderly departure agreement has made a so-called no-deal Brexit more likely with less than two weeks until April 12, the latest deadline.

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Could a No Deal Brexit cause similar scenes? (Gareth Fuller/PA Wire/PA Images). It's war, friends. As Brexit talks enter their fifth round, with very little progress on the divorce bill, after her carrot-based Florence speech the PM has decided to switch tactics towards "stick". The Brits have begun to talk up the possibility of No Deal . If talks continue to stall, the theory goes, come March of next year, the UK could simply walk away from the table and devote itself to prepping against the shocks of the 29th of March, 2019.

I can tell you what a no - deal Brexit should look like , but that does not mean it actually will. Bear in mind the following: 1. Domestic suppliers should have a field day because they will be protected from competition from EU imports by import tar It has become widely used during the Brexit debate to hide ignorance of the issues. it is especially useless when used in regards to Brexit because Brexit has a wide range of implications. It would be better to ask “ What would be some negative/positive effects on UK Trade in a no - deal Brexit ?”

While a further extension of the deadline was possible, nothing was certain. Here’s what could happen if Britain leaves the bloc without a deal.

Ports could be jammed.

Ferries and trains zip back and forth between southeast England and Calais in France carrying food, goods and people between Britain and the rest of the European Union. If Britain leaves without a divorce agreement, many worry that issues with new customs arrangements could lead to miles of traffic jams, forcing trucks to sit for hours on highways as food rots and manufacturing processes grind to a halt.

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London protests cause gridlock as Brexit vote raises tensions

London protests cause gridlock as Brexit vote raises tensions Brexit supporters swarmed through the streets of London on Friday as lawmakers rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's EU withdrawal deal for a third time. Demonstrators blocked streets around the Houses of Parliament in central London as several groups of protesters converged on the day that the UK was originally meant to leave the European Union. Marchers carried placards, bearing slogans including "No deal is better than a bad deal," "Every nation has the right to self-determination" and "Leave means Leave." Others chanted "This country has turned into a dictatorship" and "we want our Brexit back.

“I think no deal would be absolutely catastrophic for this country,” Conservative lawmaker and former attorney general Dominic Grieve told Sky News this summer. “We’ve got to be realistic about this. We will be in a state of emergency. Basic services which you take for granted might not be available.” Part of what has made the Brexit process so difficult is the lack of precedent. No country has ever untangled itself from an organization like the E.U. The flow of goods between the U.K. and E.U. runs as smoothly as it does between California and Texas, with no time-consuming customs checks or

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab was reluctant to give MPs many details when he appeared before the Exiting the EU Select Committee, insisting that he wanted to wait until he could "set it out in a responsible and full fashion". But when Mr Raab was asked directly if the government was But perhaps the biggest challenge in the health sector is faced by those who rely on products which are only of medical use for a few days or sometimes a few hours. In particular, this means radio isotopes that are essential for things like cancer scans. " A ' no deal ' scenario will be difficult for the nuclear medicine

“I expect to see long queues at the ports because traders, importers and exporters and the logistics supply chain are not prepared for the new customs arrangements here or in the E.U.,” said Duncan Buchanan, the policy director at Britain’s Road Haulage Association. “We will get a massive slowdown in the supply chain.”

Britain has said that it will allow trucks to drive off ferries and trains without extra checks and declarations, but other European Union countries have not said the same about traffic from Britain. British haulers arriving at ports could find themselves turned away if they have not completed correct paperwork.

Food shortages could erupt.

Farmers and food producers have warned that supplies could dwindle.

Nearly a third of the food consumed in Britain comes from the European Union, but if the trucks bringing that food in are stuck, consumers might find it harder to purchase perishables like lettuce and tomatoes.

Brexit options: Stick close to EU, crash out, think again

Brexit options: Stick close to EU, crash out, think again Britain is running out of time and options for Brexit. U.K. lawmakers have three times rejected the divorce deal struck between Prime Minister Theresa May's government and the European Union. They also voted on a series of alternatives, from leaving the bloc without a deal to holding second referendum on Britain's EU membership. All the options were defeated. The U.K. now faces a deadline of April 12 to present the EU with a new Brexit plan or crash out of the bloc that night. British lawmakers plan another round of votes Monday to see whether they can come to an agreement on a way for Britain to leave the bloc.

However, a no - deal Brexit would be a major blow to May and could usher in a new national election. The resurgent left-wing Labour Party has plans for big increases in public spending which would unsettle some investors. Factbox: What might a no - deal Brexit look like ? Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price

No - deal or no-trade-deal? What's the difference? It's important to remember that Brexit consists of two deals, one on the withdrawal and one on the future relationship between the UK and the EU. So there is the risk that the EU and Great Britain would end up trading on World Trade Organisation terms in January 2021. That would mean tariffs on goods, high tariffs in particular on agricultural goods and cars. Think of it as a no -trade- deal Brexit rather than a pure no - deal Brexit .

Food producers also have warned that the extra paperwork, a weaker British currency and tariffs on food could increase prices. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, said that food prices could rise as much as 10 percent.

A no-deal Brexit could also lead to company closings in the food industry. One in four food exporters could be out of business in six weeks, according to the Food and Drink Federation.

Manufacturing could halt.

A large part of Britain’s manufacturing industry relies on just-in-time manufacturing, which means that parts travel between Britain and Europe constantly and arrive within minutes of being used in factories.

This process could collapse if traffic comes to a standstill at Dover or Calais, and the parts that manufacturers need are stuck in transit. Several auto manufacturers said they would shut down factories temporarily to adjust to such disruptions.

Some manufacturers halted work temporarily after March 29, the original deadline for Britain to depart, fearful of a no-deal Brexit. But the idling of their plants had been planned months in advance. If Britain departs on April 12 without a deal, factories that have reopened could still be hit by disruptions.

UK's May holds 'constructive' Brexit talks with Labour

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Medicine shortages could loom.

The pharmaceutical industry has expressed concern that a no-deal Brexit, which could cause the British pound to plunge, could in turn make medicine supplies in Britain far more valuable — and profitable — to sell overseas, leading to severe shortages in the country. Manufacturers have called on the government to impose a temporary export ban on vital medicines to protect against that possibility.

“We’ve built all these stockpiles. Now we need to make sure that if in the next month the pound should collapse, that middle men don’t sell those stockpiles to people in the E.U. in order to make money,” Mike Thompson, the chief executive of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry, said in a statement.

British and E.U. citizens will be in limbo

The European Commission has urged E.U. member states to ensure that British citizens living within their boundaries can continue to be legal residents, but this depends on each nation.

The British residents of other European Union countries may also find themselves ineligible for health care, and the government has advised them to take out separate health insurance until they have residency permits.

Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, has said that European Union citizens in Britain will be able to stay even if the country leaves without a deal, and that she has a settlement proposal for them. But a parliamentary human rights committee has questioned whether the government has adequately protected their rights.

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The border with Ireland could turn messy.

Ireland, a European Union member, wants to avoid a physical border with Northern Ireland, which is part of Britain, because such a barrier could undermine the 1998 Good Friday agreement that helped end sectarian violence. But a no-deal Brexit could abruptly impose restrictions on the people, goods and services crossing between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The Irish government has proposed allowing people and services to move across the border in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but not goods.

Business as usual for banks and airlines.

The financial sector has been preparing for a no-deal Brexit since shortly after Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016, so few expect a visible effect on the sector in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Many banks have set up offices in cities like Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin, so that they can continue to provide the same services seamlessly.

The European Commission also has passed legislation that will prevent disruption for airlines flying in the region.

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