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World Chinese Nuclear Stockpile Clouds Prospects for U.S.-Russia Deal

18:10  18 october  2019
18:10  18 october  2019 Source:   bloomberg.com

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Photographer: China News Service/Visual China Group via Getty Images. Yet while the U . S . believes China will double its nuclear stockpile over the next Beyond China , U . S . talks with Russia are complicated by increasing mistrust on both sides. As a UN disarmament committee sought to begin its

China ’ s stockpiles are expected to grow rapidly. The country “has developed a new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, a new New START, reached between Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, capped the total number of U . S . and Russian nuclear stockpiles .

(Bloomberg) -- A key hurdle to extending a landmark nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia isn’t Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin. It’s China.

China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles are seen during a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on October 1, 2019.© AFP via Getty Images China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles are seen during a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on October 1, 2019.

The New START treaty, the last major arms control accord between the world’s two nuclear superpowers, is set to expire in early 2021. Like another key treaty covering intermediate-range nuclear missiles, which collapsed this year after the U.S. quit that accord, Trump administration officials say the agreement may not be worth extending if China isn’t brought into the fold.

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Chinese Nuclear Stockpile Clouds Prospects for U . S .- Russia D Jim Jeffrey, the U . S . special envoy for the Syria conflict who was with Pence in Ankara, said: “We talk about the safe zone here, and the Turks talk about an aspirational safe zone based upon what we had done with them back in

This article shows various estimates of the nuclear weapons stockpiles of various countries at various points in time. This article also shows the number of nuclear weapons tests conducted by each

A failure to renew or extend the accord would mark the effective end of decades of agreements aimed at limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Experts say it would also send a worrisome signal to other nations -- from Saudi Arabia to North Korea -- already pursuing or seeking to pursue nuclear programs.

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said in August that the U.S. should consider “multi-lateralizing” the agreement. “If we really want to go after avoiding an arms race, and capture these systems, we should multi-lateralize it.”

Yet while the U.S. believes China will double its nuclear stockpile over the next decade, most arms control experts say it would be better for Washington and Moscow to settle on an extension of New START and worry about Beijing later.

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Al Jazeera takes a look at the state of nuclear weapons in the world and the push for non-proliferation this month. Russia has the largest stockpile of

Stockpiles of nuclear materials are often loosely guarded abroad, and even the most secure nuclear facilities at home have proven to be vulnerable. In 1995, Russia almost launched its missiles at the US when it thought it was under attack. The longer we keep thousands of nuclear weapons in fallible

“China doesn’t have anything like the number of warheads the U.S. and Russia possess,” Sam Nunn, a former Democratic senator from Georgia who co-chairs the Nuclear Threat Initiative, said in an interview. “We will at some point have to have China in the equation but that won’t happen now. Common sense would be to at least extend a treaty that already exists and work from there.”

Earlier: U.S. Tests Cruise Missile After Quitting INF Treaty With Russia

Russian officials say they want the current agreement extended for the allowed five years beyond its 2021 expiration. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters last month that that the U.S. continues to insist China be brought into negotiations, a message he said Secretary of State Michael Pompeo delivered to him at the annual United Nations General Assembly meetings.

But Moscow says time is running out. Negotiations for a new deal would typically take as long as a year. Even settling on an extension would be lengthy.

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WASHINGTON — The Trump administration said on Friday that it was suspending one of the last major nuclear arms control treaties with Russia , following five years of heated conversations over accusations by the United States that Moscow is violating the Reagan-era agreement.

The 123 Agreement signed between the United States of America and the Republic of India is known as the U . S .–India Civil Nuclear Agreement or Indo- US nuclear deal . The framework for this agreement was a July 18, 2005

“We urge our American colleagues not to lose time anymore,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in an interview with Russia’s International Affairs journal. “There’s almost none left. Simply letting this treaty die would be unforgivable. This will be perceived by the international community as neglecting one of the key pillars of international security.”

Despite American efforts, Beijing has so far balked at trilateral talks, arguing it is far behind Moscow and Washington, which together hold more than 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.

“China has no interest in participating in a nuclear-arms-reduction negotiation with the U.S. or Russia, given the huge gap between China’s nuclear arsenal and those of the U.S. and Russia,” said Fu Cong, director general of the foreign ministry’s Arms Control Department. “The U.S. and Russia, as the countries possessing the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenals, bear special and primary responsibilities on nuclear disarmament.”

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Not only has Russia increased its deployed nuclear warheads, but the treaty does not require the U . S . or Russia to destroy any nuclear warheads, as We asked the White House to explain how the treaty has “substantially reduced” Russia ’ s nuclear stockpile . In response, we were referred to a written

China is expected to increase its nuclear weapons stockpile by twofold in the coming decade, according to a new U . S . military intelligence “Pursuit of broader nuclear arms control deal with Russia and China is a worthwhile objective — but not at the expense of, or as a condition for, the

Nine countries possess nuclear weapons, with the global nuclear warhead count at 13,865 in 2018, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Russia and the U.S. each have more than 6,000 warheads, followed by France at 300, China at 290, the U.K. at 200, India and Pakistan each with over 100, Israel at about 80 and North Korea estimated at 20-30.

China’s stockpiles are expected to grow rapidly. The country “has developed a new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, a new multi-warhead version of its silo-based ICBM, and a new submarine-launched ballistic missile,” Lieutenant General Robert Ashley, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in May. “With its announcement of a new nuclear-capable strategic bomber, China will soon field their own nuclear triad, demonstrating China’s commitment to expanding the role and centrality of nuclear forces in Beijing’s military aspirations.”

Getting China to participate in any talks is complicated by Beijing’s own calculus, which involves deterring India and expanding its weapons program, said Gary Samore, a former U.S. senior director for nonproliferation and export controls during the Clinton administration.

“A trilateral approach is not practical at the moment because the Chinese will not agree to institutionalize their very small numbers compared to the U.S. and Russia,” added Samore, who now directs the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University.

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The deal has no bearing on the numbers of nuclear weapons deployed by Russia or the United States. “The threat to strategic stability posed by the hostile actions of the U . S . against Russia , and the inability of the U . S . to deliver on the obligation to dispose of excessive weapons plutonium under

China was found to have supplied Albania with a small stockpile of chemical weapons in the 1970 s during the US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright expressed her concerns over possible Chinese biological However, U . S . intelligence estimates suggest a much smaller nuclear force than many

The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF -- the Cold War-era agreement that expired this year -- is already raising tensions with Beijing. Esper recently indicated that the U.S. was looking at deploying previously-banned intermediate range missiles in Asia, angering Chinese officials. Potential bases for the missiles could be in Taiwan and Japan, Samore said.

Earlier: U.S. Denies Pressing Allies on Missiles That Raised China’s Ire

Beyond China, U.S. talks with Russia are complicated by increasing mistrust on both sides. As a UN disarmament committee sought to begin its scheduled meetings earlier this month, Russian officials wouldn’t agree to adopt the schedule in protest of a U.S. refusal to issue visas to members of its delegation, a diplomat said.

The potential of an escalating arms race comes after a prolonged period of relative progress in curbing nuclear weapons.

The U.S. and Russia destroyed thousands of ground-launched missiles thanks to the INF treaty. New START, reached between Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, capped the total number of U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles. Crucially, after reaching that accord, the U.S. and Russia adopted a united stance against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, forcing Tehran to sign a 2015 nuclear accord that the U.S. withdrew from last year.

Unlike the situation during the Cold War, the advent of new cyber, artificial intelligence, and space technologies has moved much of the nuclear arms competition in recent years away from quantity to quality, Nunn and Ernest Moniz, the former U.S. Energy secretary and the co-chair of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, recently warned in a report. That may bolster the U.S. case for China to be included in a future deal.

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Barack Obama, Chinese President Xi Jinping to bolster ' nuclear security'. Wibbitz Top Stories. President Barack Obama reacts after Iran nuclear deal . ‘Israel may have one of biggest nuclear stockpiles in the world’ – whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg. Nuclear arms reduction will give Russia and US more weight.

Russia ' s recovery of a nuclear device that had been left in a tunnel in the Semipalatinsk test site (Document 13, Document 17), and Russian interests in This article examines China ' s prospects for joining the Comprehensive Test Ban (CTB) regime, the issue of Chinese stockpile confidence under

China’s rising military and technological prowess in the decades since the first nuclear deals were ratified means the Trump administration is right in calling China to be included in new strategic talks, even if it remains in the U.S. interest to extend New START, said Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“The U.S. has historically dominated many emerging technologies such as space, but now the Chinese are growing in these areas,” Manning said. “We need strategic dialogue to tackle these new areas. Do we want autonomous weapons or not? Do we want to ban hyper-sonics or not? That’s where the next wave is, not in whether nuclear weapons should be reduced or not.”

Keeping Up With Plot of the Trump-Kim Nuclear Show: QuickTake

But losing New START would send a signal to the world that the two biggest nuclear powers don’t care about arms control, Nunn said. Lori Esposito Murray, an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, agrees.

“You don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater,” Murray said. “You keep the constraints you have that have produced an 80% reduction of nuclear stockpiles and then you look at a process that looks at China and advanced technologies.”

(Updates to add estimated global arsenal in 12th paragraph. An earlier version of this story was corrected to say Nunn is from Georgia, not North Carolina)

--With assistance from Henry Meyer and Brendan Scott.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Wainer in New York at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Bill Faries at [email protected], John Harney

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Russian nuclear submarine fails to test fire ballistic missile: Vedomosti .
Russian nuclear submarine fails to test fire ballistic missile: Vedomosti

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