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World Debt crisis to overshadow Zambia's high stakes election

13:55  24 october  2020
13:55  24 october  2020 Source:   msn.com

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Zambia is heading for the polls just 18 months after the last presidential election , which saw Edgar Lungu win by less than 28,000 votes. The government is now seeking an International Monetary Fund bailout due to its rising debt . The cost of living for many Zambians is at an all-time high .

Lusaka - Zambia : By Chibamba Kanyama Over a lunch discussion with the IMF Mission Chief to Zambia Tsidi Tsikata when I was still at the Fund, I The nominal value debt -to-GDP is higher than the 60 percent threshold given that even the face value is way above the same ratio. This surely is of

Although elections won't be held in Zambia for another 10 months, the battle lines already being drawn over the country's debt woes could make them the issue to topple the longtime incumbent.

Hakainde Hichilema standing in front of a crowd: Self-made businessman Hakainde Hichilema has bid for the presidency five times already © SALIM DAWOOD Self-made businessman Hakainde Hichilema has bid for the presidency five times already

Presidential and parliamentary polls on August 12, 2021 will mark the sixth attempt by opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema, 58, to claim the top job.

Meanwhile 63-year-old Edgar Lungu hopes to hang on to the presidency he has held since 2015, even as the global coronavirus pandemic hammers the commodity prices that prop up Zambia's mining-heavy economy.

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This shall make the debt position far worse than anything imaginable for Zambia . What is clear from all the information available is that Zambia is sitting on a massive debt time They rig elections just to put the country in this situation. PF these are crimes against humanity and people will demand answers.

Lusaka - Zambia : By Dr Nevers Sekwila Mumba The recent announcement by the IMF that they will not bail out Zambia with an estimated .3 billion loan did not come ZAMBIA ’ S HIDDEN DEBT CRISIS : THE REAL DEBT IS BILLION!By Dr Nevers Sekwila Mumba, 28th July 2017On 21st June 2017

Edgar Lungu wearing a suit and tie: Edgar Chagwa Lungu has been president of Zambia since 2015 © TIMOTHY A. CLARY Edgar Chagwa Lungu has been president of Zambia since 2015

The presidential contenders have already begun trading barbs in the run up to elections.

But "there are more substantive campaign issues that are likely to weigh heavily on the electoral scale of considerations of many Zambians," said University of Zambia political expert Sishuwa Sishuwa.

"Top of the pile is the faltering state of the economy, worsened by a crippling public debt."

Copper-rich Zambia has seen its external debt surge to nearly $12 billion this year-- around 80 percent of GDP.

Just this week, ratings agency Standard & Poor's declared Lusaka in default after the government missed an interest payment.

The government had last month already asked to defer interest payments on three commercial eurobonds worth $3 billion until April next year -- just four months before the ballot.

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Zambian President Edgar Lungu said the southern African nation, whose Eurobonds are trading at distressed levels, is able to repay its debts and will soon emerge from an economic slump. “ Zambia is not in a position of a crisis ,” the

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Paying down the debt has grown harder as the country's kwacha currency has fallen around 30 percent against the dollar since the start of the year.

Low demand for copper has pressured global prices, with knock-on effects for Zambia's mining industry, its top export earner.

The International Monetary Fund projects Zambia's economy to contract by 4.8 percent this year.

Nevertheless, analysts expect Lungu will again resort "to his tried and tested playbook of exploiting the mining industry for quick cash injections" for his re-election campaign, said Ed Hobey-Hamsher of the Verisk Maplecroft risk advisory.

- 'We are in trouble' -

For now, ordinary Zambians are bearing the brunt of the weakening kwacha, which pushed inflation up to 16 percent in September.

"Most people don't have money currently," said Rebecca Nkhoma, a clothes seller and one of those feeling the pinch.

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Lusaka - Zambia : Mr Simumba said there is need for government to carry out a detailed expenditure review and impose strict value for money test criteria before. International Trade Consultant Trevor Simumba has warned that Zambia is in a debt crisis and that 2018 will be a real struggle given the

Government has said that Zambia is not facing a debt crisis and has urged people to stop speculating about economic issues and debt . Chief Government spokesperson Dora Siliya has said that people should allow the Minister of Finance Margaret Mwanakatwe to do her work and stop speculating as it

Nor has the crisis spared big manufacturers and retailers.

"At the moment, I think we are in trouble," said Yusuf Dodia, chairman of the Private Sector Development Association, questioning how Zambia finds itself with the "highest foreign debt and domestic debt in the history of our nation" as it marks 56 years after independence from Britain Saturday.

After suffering a narrow defeat in the 2016 election, Hichilema is pinning his hopes on disenchantment with Lungu's administration of the economy to clinch the presidency.

"The poor economic situation should benefit the opposition as it adds to its critique of the government's economic policy," said Mark Bohlund of REDD research and advisory services.

After losing five elections between 2006 and 2016, Hichilema has vowed to step down as leader of his United Party for National Development (UPND) if he fails again next year.

Known by his supporters as HH, Hichilema is a self-made entrepreneur who has become one of the country's richest businessmen with interests in finance, ranching, property, healthcare and tourism.

Recently, former finance minister and now leader of opposition party Forum for Democracy and Development Edith Nawakwi accused him of theft from the sale of state institutions two decades ago.

Hichilema has maintained his innocence, while some observers believe Nawakwi's party, widely seen as pro-Lungu, has been enlisted in a scheme aimed to discredit the strongest opposition contender.

The allegations enable "Lungu to deflect public attention from growing criticism of corruption in his inner circle and government," Sishuwa said.

"It is also a strategy aimed at potentially excluding Hichilema, who poses the most credible threat to the incumbent's chance of victory, from the ballot".

"These people are dead scared of me and their plan is to eliminate me from the election next year," Hichilema told AFP.

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Survey: Nearly 2 out of 3 voters will cast their ballots early in-person or by mail, not on Election Day .
The survey showed a significant partisan divide, too. Those supporting Biden are more likely to say they plan to vote by mail than those who support Trump.When combining those who are voting by mail (42%) and those who voting early in-person (26%), nearly 2 in 3 voters will be casting their ballot ahead of Election Day, according to a survey from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project.

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