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World Brexit goes down to the line: Deal, no-deal or fudge?

13:01  30 october  2020
13:01  30 october  2020 Source:   reuters.com

Brexit. Michel Barnier invites London to "make the most of the little time" that remains

 Brexit. Michel Barnier invites London to © archives European flags in front of the Berlaymont, the headquarters of the Commission in Brussels The European negotiator confirmed on Tuesday that the Europeans were still ready to negotiate with the British on their future relations. The European Commission said on Tuesday October 20, 2020 that it was ready to continue negotiating with the UK and found it obvious that each side has to make compromises in an attempt to reach an agreement on their future post-Brexit relationship .

If no trade deal has been agreed and ratified by the end of the year, then the UK faces the prospect of tariffs on exports to the EU. The UK must agree how it is going to co-operate with the EU on security and law enforcement. The UK is set to leave the European Arrest Warrant scheme and will have to

" Brexit " — the term used to describe Britain's EU departure — represents the most important constitutional shake-up the UK has known since it joined Australia however has no trade deal with the EU. The EU and the UK would trade on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms, bringing tariffs

By Gabriela Baczynska

a man wearing a blue shirt: FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives to attend a news conference at the European Union leaders summit dominated by Brexit, in Brussels, Belgium October 17, 2019 © Reuters/Toby Melville FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives to attend a news conference at the European Union leaders summit dominated by Brexit, in Brussels, Belgium October 17, 2019

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - After nearly five years of Brexit crisis, the European Union and Britain are making a last ditch attempt to clinch a thin trade deal that would govern nearly a trillion dollars in annual imports and exports from 2021.

The United Kingdom left the EU last January but the trade deal would kick in when it leaves informal membership - known as the transition period - in nine weeks time.

UK-EU Brexit talks back on as clock ticks to trade deadline

  UK-EU Brexit talks back on as clock ticks to trade deadline European Union negotiators headed to London on Thursday to resume Brexit trade talks after Britain called off a boycott, with both sides vowing to work round the clock to seal a deal in the time left. Led by chief negotiator Michel Barnier, the EU team was en route from Brussels after a dramatic breakthrough on Wednesday gave Britain an outlet to end days of brinkmanship and redouble efforts to prevent economic chaos at the end of the year. In aLed by chief negotiator Michel Barnier, the EU team was en route from Brussels after a dramatic breakthrough on Wednesday gave Britain an outlet to end days of brinkmanship and redouble efforts to prevent economic chaos at the end of the year.

If there is no deal , licence exchange arrangements may stop and UK licence holders may have to retake their driving test in the country where they live. In October it published an update to the plans which trade minister Conor Burns said are designed to support the UK economy. A tariff is a tax

The Brexit talks appear to be on the point of collapse after Britain flatly rejected an EU ultimatum over the In a sign of the plunging prospects of a deal , Germany’s ambassador to the UK, Andreas Michaelis But within two hours of the tense meeting, Gove said Downing St would not climb down .

If a deal can be done before the transition period ends on Dec. 31, the two sides would sign more than 1,000 pages of international treaties covering everything from smoked salmon and cheese to car parts and medicine.

So far, there is no breakthrough, though talks in London and Brussels made progress on unifying texts each side has so far prepared separately. Sticking points remain on economic fair play, fisheries or settling disputes, sources on both sides said.

Here are three main scenarios for Brexit.

1. THIN DEAL THIS YEAR

Even if the two sides do clinch a zero-tariff and zero-quota trade deal, it will be thin.

There will be little scope for closer integration in areas such as services and regulations. Neither would it guarantee continued close ties on many current areas of tight cooperation including on foreign policy, international security and defence.

London and Tokyo sign first major post-Brexit agreement

 London and Tokyo sign first major post-Brexit agreement © Pixabay London and Tokyo sign first major post-Brexit agreement The United Kingdom and Japan have agreed to increase their trade. The agreement will enter into force on January 1, 2021. This is a first. The United Kingdom and Japan signed their bilateral trade agreement on Friday, October 23 in Tokyo. This is the first major treaty of its kind post-Brexit for London, as intense negotiations continue between the British and the Europeans.

Labour-led attempt to stop the UK leaving without a deal is defeated, in move that could help Boris Johnson.

2pm update: Brexit deal dead in the water! France REFUSES to budge on fishing - EU no deal fears erupt. Brexit negotiators face an uphill battle to finalise the future trade and security deal as "stark He went on to deliver “the Brexit message” as he lauded Mr Trump as the “bravest person” he had

While far short of the aspirations of both sides following the 2016 Brexit referendum, such a narrow deal is seen as the most economically beneficial option now available. It would keep the bloc's internal market of 450 million consumers open to the world's sixth largest economy, and vice versa.

With a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic ripping through Europe, the bloc hopes to avoid more economic damage. Still, even with a deal, many British exporters expect disruptions at the main borders with the EU in early 2021.


Video: Thousands protest in Belarus as opposition calls for Lukashenko to resign (ABC News)

2. TUMULTUOUS NO DEAL

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson ultimately decides that a narrow deal is not in his political interest and the United Kingdom leaves without a deal - possibly amid a row.

After Johnson's bid to undercut the 2020 Brexit divorce treaty, there are fears that London is employing what one European diplomat said was Madman Theory - a reference to former U.S. President Richard Nixon's attempt to convince Moscow that he was irrational during the Cold War.

Curb the Brexit Enthusiasm. The Hurdles Are Still High

  Curb the Brexit Enthusiasm. The Hurdles Are Still High The technicalities of trade negotiations depend on broad political buy-in. And that's still lacking on both sides of the English Channel.The mood is good, but the reality is complicated. What any agreement will contain is still a bit of a mystery, and that’s largely because the biggest obstacles have yet to be overcome, and they’re very political and very emotional ones.

BREXIT talks are now in their most crucial but difficult stage, European Council President Charles Michel Brexit Live: The EU is not sure if deal will be agreed (Image: GETTY). In order for a deal to be The UK Internal Market Bill is undergoing detailed line -by- line scrutiny in the House of Lords on

UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove has warned the devolved Welsh government that London has no plans to surrender fishing rights as EU leaders demand continued access to British waters and Brexit trade “I am afraid we strongly disagree with your premise that we should ‘back down ’ on fisheries.”

If the negotiators fail to overcome the technical and political differences, Britain and the EU would fall back on World Trade Organization rules, which include trade barriers.

Johnson says he wants a deal but has repeatedly said that he is ready to leave without a deal - on so-called "Australian terms" - if the EU asks for too many concessions.

The EU does not have a free-trade agreement with Canberra and such an arrangement would give Britain trading terms on par with China but worse than many developing countries like Afghanistan or Mali have with the bloc.

The EU does not believe a no-deal split at the end of the year would exhaust the tortuous Brexit saga and a French diplomat predicted the ensuing chaos in commerce would soon force a return to talks.

The EU also insists it would not enact any new trade deal if Britain goes ahead with plans to undercut their earlier divorce settlement, in particular for the sensitive Irish border.

3. MESSY FUDGE

Amid political grandstanding on both sides, pressure from businesses forces a partial compromise on certain areas at the last minute.

EU's Barnier resumes Brexit trade talks in London

  EU's Barnier resumes Brexit trade talks in London EU's Barnier resumes Brexit trade talks in LondonThe United Kingdom left the EU in January but the two sides are trying to clinch a deal that would govern nearly a trillion dollars in annual trade before informal membership - known as the transition period - ends on Dec. 31.

With Parliament’s vote to postpone the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union, the political and economic future of the region hangs in the

PM Theresa May has struck a last-minute deal with the EU in a bid to move Brexit talks on to the next phase. There will be no "hard border" with Ireland media captionDUP leader Arlene Foster welcomes "no red line down the Irish Sea". The DUP, whose opposition on Monday led to talks breaking down

The partial deal - covering some key areas where the sides can find agreement - could be temporarily applied without ratification from EU lawmakers should they run out of time.

Such a super slim deal, even thinner than predicted under the first scenario, effectively pushes negotiations on the outstanding issues into 2021 and onwards.

That would give Johnson the sensitive political win of delivering a deal without going back on his promise not to prolong Britain's way out of the EU beyond 2020.

To what extent the sides would then be able to build on such a half-baked treaty would also largely depend on how far London would push its new right to move away from EU standards.

In particular, the UK would risk erecting a regulatory wall with the EU market if it were to relax its own standards on animal and food safety to win a new U.S. trade agreement, which is crucial to the "global Britain" Brexit agenda.

(Additional reporting by Michel Rose and Philip Blenkinsop, Writing by Gabriela Baczynska and Guy Faulconbridge, Editing by William Maclean)

Final spurt in the Brexit trade pact .
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson did not achieve a breakthrough in a conversation about the Brexit trade pact. © Stefan Rousseau / PA Wire / dpa The Brexit transition phase will end in less than two months. Then Great Britain will leave the EU internal market and the customs union. There has been progress recently, but there are still significant differences, they said after a phone call.

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