World The COVID epidemic explodes in India: why epidemic figures are probably very underestimated

22:15  22 april  2021
22:15  22 april  2021 Source:   nouvelobs.com

Officially, India Has the World’s Second-Worst COVID-19 Outbreak. Unofficially, it’s Almost Certainly the Worst

  Officially, India Has the World’s Second-Worst COVID-19 Outbreak. Unofficially, it’s Almost Certainly the Worst India just overtook Brazil as the country with the second-highest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. But experts say the real numbers are far higherIndia now has 13.5 million confirmed cases, compared to the U.S.’s 31.1 million. The country is currently in the midst of a second wave of the virus, with confirmed daily infections reaching an all-time high of 168,912 on Monday.

  L’épidémie de Covid explose en Inde : pourquoi les chiffres épidémiques sont probablement très sous-estimés © Copyright 2021, the Obs

India is becoming the new world epicenter of the epidemic, and undergoes a second deadly wave, because of a relaxation of barrier gestures, a vaccination campaign that patina and a very contagious "Indian" variant.

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Symbol of this epidemic outbreak: The country announced Thursday have identified nearly 315,000 new cases of CVIV-19 in twenty-four hours, a world record. But official figures, particularly on the number of victims, could be largely underestimated.

crematoriums that have been turning at full

regime for several days, social networks and the local press show images of bakers in flames and crematoriums unable to cope. In Ghaziabad, near Delhi, local television channels have broadcast corps images wrapped in shrouds, aligned on the sidewalk, loved ones in their side, waiting for their turn for incineration.

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In the Western state of Gujarat, many crematoriums in Surat, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Ahmedabad revolve twenty-four hours per twenty-four with three to four times more deceased than normal, highlights AFP. The fireplace of a crematorium in Ahmedabad has cracked before collapsing for working at a rate of 20 hours a day in the last two weeks. In Surat, the iron armature of an oven even melted because he did not have time to cool. "Until last month, we incinerated about twenty bodies a day [...] But since the beginning of April, we have dealt more than 80 bodies a day," says Ramnath Ghela, local crematorium manager of the city.

The underestimated number of deaths?

Yet, officially, the contamination rate in India is only 1.2%. But the number of deaths - 185,000 deaths for a country of 1.3 billion people - could be largely undervalued. A hypothesis mentioned in particular by the "Financial Times" , which considers that this figure would be about ten times higher than the official balance sheet. A shared opinion on Twitter by Eric Feigl-Ding, epidemiologist and member of the Federation of American Scientists.

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In some states, as in the Bhopal district, in the Madhya Pradesh, the number of Victimian Covid cremations is even 24 times higher than the official death census.

Thus, only 228 creations were officially declared in the seven districts of Gujarat States, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. However, the figures report at least 1,833 people died of COVID during the week. According to the British economic daily, in the Jamnagar district, Gujarat, 100 people would be dead from Covid-19, but only one death was reported.

The positivity of the tests soared

for Eric Feigl-Ding, another index showing that cases increase more than the displayed digit is that the positivity increases at the same time very quickly. "It means that the tests are late on the actual increase in cases," he explains.

"This suggests that the vast majority of cases are missed and that true spread is even faster," says Max Roser, researcher at the University of Oxford.

India Gains Aid Pledges; EU Welcomes U.S. Tourists: Virus Update

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in rural areas, deaths that pass under the

radars finally, in rural areas, where 70% of the population still live, it is not uncommon to die away from the hospital, without being detected the origin of the disease. The Bihar, one of the most densely populated and less developed territories in the country, has identified only 1,897 dead, compared to 61,911 in the Mumbay region, where many hospitals include.

"If it is more contagious, the new VVID-19 variant will take precedence over others"

the causes of death are not always counted. "Our insufficient system of oversight [...] already forgets many deaths at the start. Only, one in five deaths is recorded with a specific cause, "observes hemant Shewade, public health expert in Bangalore. A problem of statistics that goes beyond the framework of the epidemic: in normal times, "only 22% of death" declared in the civil registration receive a medical validation in which the cause of death is indicated.

To try to endigate this deadly wave, several cities have been reconfined, including New Delhi, confined since Monday for eight days.

AP PHOTOS: Faces new and familiar at a most unusual Oscars .
LOS ANGELES (AP) — It was a night that honored nomads and a messiah, new faces and old at a most unusual Academy Awards. The pandemic-era ceremony at the first-time Oscars home of Union Station in downtown Los Angeles was streamlined and socially distanced, lacking crowds and many if not most of the traditions that mark Hollywood’s biggest night. Some things never change, though. The red carpet was scaled back and modest, but the fashion wasn’t, and the men turned as many heads as the women. LaKeith Stanfield, nominated for best supporting actor for “Judas and the Black Messiah,” wore a swinging black jumpsuit straight from the 1970s. Leslie Odom Jr. wore a striking gold suit and matching shirt, though he wouldn’t win an Oscar to go with it in either of his two nominations for “One Night in Miami.” “Nomadland” was the night’s big winner and breaker of barriers. Director Chloé Zhao became just the second woman and the first woman of color to win best director. Frances McDormand won her third Oscar for best actress. And their film became the first with a woman as both director and lead actor to win best picture. It was a historic year for diversity, with nine of the 20 nominees in the acting categories people of color. Stanfield’s castmate Daniel Kaluuya won best supporting actor for “Judas and the Black Messiah.” Youn Yuh-jung, nominated for the first time at age 73, became the first Korean actor to win an Oscar when she took best supporting actress for her role in “Minari.

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