World Bundesbank expects strong upswing
Ifo chopped stimulus forecast due to partial defects
The global delivery bottlenecks will brake the upswing in Germany in accordance with the assessment of the Ifo-Institut. The Munich economists expect this year with the end of the corona crisis still a growth of 3.3 percent, as the institute announced. © Jonas Roosens / Belga / DPA Short-term dampening after Ifo assessment, especially the bottlenecks in the delivery of pre-products. That would be 0.4 percentage points less than expected in March.
The Bundesbank sees Germany at the beginning of a strong upswing. "The German economy overcomes the pandemie-related crisis," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann predicted on Friday. "Already this summer, economic performance could reach the pre-crisis level again."
3.7 percent economic growth now predicts the central bank for the current year. In December, the Bundesbank economists with 3.0 percent were not yet so optimistic. Meanwhile, the Bundesbank assumes that the progression of vaccinations the Corona pandemic "rapidly and sustainably pushed out" and therefore restrictions for the economy and population would be "swiftly losered", Weidmann explained.
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, especially private consumption, is likely to be attracted to a unanimous view of many economists. In addition, in the face of the recovery of the world trade, the positive assessments were most recently in the export-oriented German industry. Important industries such as mechanical engineering, chemistry and pharmaceuticals as well as electro screwed recently their forecasts for the current year up - and although supply bottlenecks of several manufacturers just make the business more difficult.
The upswing in the current year will not be a straw fire after assessing many economists. For 2022, the Bundesbank is even more confident than six months ago: instead of 4.5 percent growth, the economists of the central bank of Europe greater economy in the next year now trust a plus of 5.2 percent. In 2023, the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) is weakening, but is still 1.7 percent.
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Last year, the Corona Pandemic had torn the German economy in the deepest recession since the 2009 global financial crisis. The gross domestic product broke 2020 after the latest calculation of the Federal Statistical Office by 4.8 percent. Also, the start to the new year was bumpy because new restrictions in the course of combating coronavirus interpreted hospitality and parts of trade. In the first quarter 2021, GDP shrank by 1.8 percent on the previous quarter.
Several economists assume that the German economy will increase increasingly in the current year - even thanks to continuous government aid losses. Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier (CDU) awaits recent figures this year an economic growth of up to four percent in this country. Germany has survived the recession better than expected by many, Altmaier's accounted.
Consumers in this country must also be set to a clearly attractive inflation. Inflation rates are temporarily possible by four percent, affirmed Bundesbank President Weidmann former statements of the central bank. Two special factors drive the inflation: the VAT-added tax reduced in the Corona crisis for half a year has been back on its old level since January. In addition, since the beginning of 2021, a dispensing of 25 euros per ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) is due, which arises when burning diesel, gasoline, fuel oil and natural gas. These special effects will expire in the coming year, according to the Bundesbank professionals, then expect inflation rates of 1.8 percent.
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