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World Trudeau Holds Slight Election Edge, With Help From His Opponents

17:30  17 september  2021
17:30  17 september  2021 Source:   bloomberg.com

Canada's Trudeau , after gravel throwing, condemns rhetoric of right-wing leader

  Canada's Trudeau , after gravel throwing, condemns rhetoric of right-wing leader Canada's Trudeau , after gravel throwing, condemns rhetoric of right-wing leaderCANDIAC, Quebec (Reuters) - Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sunday, who was pelted with gravel at a rally last week, said the leader of the right-wing People's Party of Canada (PPC) was using irresponsible rhetoric.

(Bloomberg) -- Justin Trudeau and his Conservative rival are nearly tied heading into the final weekend of Canada’s election campaign, leaving the prime minister with decent odds of holding on to power.

The incumbent Liberal Party has about 32% support compared to 30% for the Tories under Erin O’Toole, according to the latest daily tracking survey by Nanos Research Group. The left-leaning New Democratic Party is in third at 20%.

Unless those numbers shift significantly, a third term is within reach for Trudeau, who called the Sept. 20 vote in hopes of leveraging his management of the Covid-19 crisis into control of a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

Touting Unity, Trudeau’s Election Instead Exposes a Nation Divided

  Touting Unity, Trudeau’s Election Instead Exposes a Nation Divided Canada’s pandemic response had, for the most part, avoided becoming the polarizing issue it is in the United States – until Justin Trudeau’s election campaign made it one.The turmoil hasn't been as divisive in other places. In Canada, for example, lawmakers have largely agreed on some basic measures to combat the spread of the virus, and the political center has proved much stronger in preventing legal, cultural and social division.

a group of people standing in a dark room: Trudeau PoCo © Bloomberg Trudeau PoCo

A majority is unlikely after his opponents successfully portrayed the move as an unnecessary power grab. But Trudeau’s campaign appears to have regained momentum in recent days, and a resurgence of a Quebec nationalist party and the rise of a far-right splinter group may help him.

“We expect a Liberal minority at this point,” said Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research Group, a polling and consultancy firm with offices in Toronto and Vancouver.

Lyle’s survey this week puts Trudeau ahead by five points, but he expects both the Liberals and Conservatives will lose a few seats from their 2019 tally. Trudeau’s biggest mistake, Lyle said, was calling the election in the first place. “That is their fundamental issue.”

In tense campaign, Canada's Trudeau defends snapping at protester

  In tense campaign, Canada's Trudeau defends snapping at protester In tense campaign, Canada's Trudeau defends snapping at protesterRICHMOND, British Columbia (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday defended his decision to shout at a protester who insulted his wife, Sophie Gregoire, as an increasingly tense election race entered its final days.

chart, histogram: Down to the Wire © Bloomberg Down to the Wire

But the pollster argued that O’Toole, who ran a low-key campaign focused on softening the edges of the Conservative Party in hopes of broadening its appeal, had a bigger challenge.

“The Tories are trying to change their brand, to improve it by being seen as center-right as opposed to right,” Lyle said. “They’ve had some success in that but not enough because brands are hard to move.”

O’Toole sprinted out of the gates, releasing a full platform the day after Trudeau asked to dissolve parliament. Heading into the first weekend of September, the Conservatives opened up a lead; Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos described the Tory leader as a “political freight train.”

Having tried to use vaccines as an early wedge issue against the Conservatives, the Liberals then hammered O’Toole on gun control and abortion. They also capitalized on the Tory leader’s promise that, if elected, he’d dial back Trudeau’s ambitious climate targets.

Canada's cliffhanger election is heating up. Some fear US-style political polarization will follow

  Canada's cliffhanger election is heating up. Some fear US-style political polarization will follow The vote, set for September 20, includes six federal parties. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Erin O'Toole are likely the only leaders capable of forming government given their national support, but Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP) polls well as a leader and could again hold the balance of power in any Canadian parliament. The pandemic, climate change, housing affordability and gun control have all featured as major issues with voters. But Trudeau's vulnerability is, in fact, the election itself, which he voluntarily triggered just as a bruising fourth wave of the pandemic took hold in Canada.

Gains the Conservatives might have realized in Quebec after its popular premier backed O’Toole were thrown into doubt after a televised debate. The moderator asked Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet about laws she said “marginalize religious minorities, anglophones and allophones.” That set off a firestorm in the majority French-speaking province that appears to have helped the separatist party.

Yves-François Blanchet et al. standing in a parking lot: Blanchet debate © Bloomberg Blanchet debate

The Conservatives “vie for the same voters as the Bloc,” said Sebastien Dallaire, a vice president at polling firm Ipsos in Montreal. “What happened last week gave Blanchet’s campaign a new wind, so that may prevent Conservative momentum.”

Another challenge for the Tories has been a surge in support for the People’s Party of Canada, whose leader, Maxime Bernier, has railed against vaccine mandates and public-health restrictions.

Though it’s never successfully elected a lawmaker, the PPC is now polling above 7%, according the Nanos daily tracking. That’s enough to have the Toronto Sun, a conservative newspaper, warning on its Friday front page that a vote for Bernier risks helping Trudeau secure another term in office.

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Clock starts ticking for Canada's Trudeau after bid for majority fails .
Clock starts ticking for Canada's Trudeau after bid for majority failsOTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau failed in his bid to win a Liberal majority government after a low-energy campaign in the middle of the pandemic, and party insiders see an increasing chance he will step down before the next vote.

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